Tag: politics

Who will trump Trump?

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

Last week, this blog made a prediction that Trump would not win this year’s US presidential election and may not even be a candidate. Umm… brave or foolhardy? Well, time will tell but yesterday was a big step forward in the presidential race.

Biden and Trump are each other’s best bet…

First, Republican Chris Christie, now a harsh critic of Trump, suspended his presidential campaign. In some ways this doesn’t mean much. He was polling just two per cent amongst the Republican base. His lambasting of Trump would have meant more if he hadn’t had his head up Trump’s fundament when he initially became President in 2016. However, as the list of GOP wannabees dwindles, it allows those opposed to Trump to coalesce around DeSantis (unlikely) or Haley (more likely). In that sense Christie’s trashing of Haley off-camera is probably more meaningful than him stepping out of the race.

Today, it certainly looks as though Trump will be his Party’s nominee, but the contest has a long way to go with exciting legal hurdles ahead. In the meantime, it is curious that Fox News is giving Trump prime airtime, inviting him to friendly on air townhall meetings whilst his fellow contestants are debating elsewhere. The Murdoch’s disparage him in private, Trump has cost them US$1 billion indirectly in damages and most elected Republicans one hears are also extremely rude about Trump in private too.

We shall see. Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times recently eloquently explained why American democracy will survive Trump come what may. I am not so sure… although Congressional elections should stymie Trump’s presidency domestically pretty quickly.

If all that seems pessimistic, then balance these events with further evidence emerging suggesting the Democrat’s electoral prospects, even under Biden, are underestimated. Recent polling by The Washington Post and University of Maryland suggests an overwhelming majority (72 per cent) of Americans are not sympathetic to the January 6th rioters, who Trump wants to pardon, believing convicts either received fair sentences or they were not harsh enough. Add that to the real elections (mid-term Congressional and State ones) where Democrats significantly outperformed expectations, and there is all to play for.

As also mentioned in last week’s blog, Trump is Biden’s best bet and vice versa. It will be a nail-biting year, particularly as there is also the possibility that neither may be a candidate by November. And only America’s democracy and global security is at stake…

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2024 predictions: a momentous year for elections

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

For political geeks or those who simply care about democracy, 2024 will be a huge year. More than 2 billion people across 50 countries will go to the polls and the consequences for many will reverberate for a generation. Of course, some of these elections are more free than others.

As one gears up nervously to make predictions for the year ahead, time to review this blog’s predictions for 2023. Not a bad year actually although apologies in advance for Trump…

  • There will be no UK General Election in 2023 – an easy tick
  • Sunak’s style will not quite resonate with the electorate – tick
  • Biden will run again – tick so far…
  • The Ukraine war will last into 2024 – tick
  • China will not invade Taiwan but the threat will rise – an easyish tick
  • Erdogan will win the presidency again in Turkey – tick
  • DeSantis will trump Trump – oops, massive cross

It’s all about elections in 2024…

So here goes, insiderightpolitics’ calculated gut feel:

First, to the UK. Sunak this week sort of confirmed there will be no election until the second half of 2024. Pretty obvious really. The Tories are 18-20 per cent behind in the polls, Sunak has only met one of his five pledges, recent tax cuts will only gradually start to be felt even as the overall tax burden continues to rise and time is needed to announce more. Sunak will want his 2 years as PM before, you heard it here first… the Tories go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation. One keeps hearing that Starmer hasn’t ‘sealed the deal’ and the Tories may make a surprise recovery to at least achieve a hung parliament, but I don’t buy it. Labour will do well in Scotland, the LibDems in the South. Reform UK will pull the rug from the Tories in the ‘Red Wall’. The sheer number of groups who want the Tories out will overwhelm their campaign. It is time for a change and even they know it.

The Tories move further to the Right after the election. Kemi Badenoch is the front-runner currently but there is a long way to go. Expect culture wars to feature and a bit of cozying up to Reform UK. Oh dear. This prediction is a no brainer. Tory moderates are split and simply, well, too moderate. It will take a generation before they find their backbone, and all this assumes there is no change to the electoral system. Rory Stewart once intimated he might lead the Tories in 10 years’ time, but he has also just intimated he would happily serve under Starmer, so no, he won’t.

Trump. This is a brave prediction, but he will not win the presidency and may not even be a candidate. Commentators have consistently underestimated the Democrat’s fortunes, either in the mid-terms or recently in State elections. Polls which put Trump ahead change their tune if he is convicted of anything. His best bet is Biden and Biden’s best bet is Trump. Neither of course may be on the ballot by November (don’t underestimate Trump’s health challenges as well as indictments) but Biden will beat Trump if it comes to that. All bets are off however if it is Biden versus Nikki Haley. She is running a smart campaign whilst DeSantis is running a dumb one.

There are many elections in Europe. Not least EU elections to the European Parliament. The populist Right will make gains notably in France, Italy and Germany but gains will be driven by frustration rather than belief and will not be as extensive as forecast.

Oh, come on, give it to me. Putin will win in Russia and, of course, Modi in India.

On other matters, the war with Ukraine will grind on throughout 2024 but Western resolve will hold up. It is doing wonders (Hungry not withstanding) to Europe’s understanding of the need to wean itself off American protection with their split Congress problems.

This blog avoids analysis of the Middle East – there are many more experts than I – but Netanyahu will not see out the year as Israel’s Prime Minister. His aggressive strategy towards the Palestinians, really all about staying in power, has manifestly failed and his sinister judicial laws rejected by Israel’s Supreme Court. This cat has used up his nine lives, sadly too late for many.

So there you go. A fascinating but scary year ahead. Even those not interested in politics should realise that their futures for years will be shaped by the outcomes of elections in 2024.

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The politics of Julius Caesar…

~ Julian Samways ~ 4 Comments

There is a brilliant documentary on BBC iPlayer currently; ‘Julius Caesar, The Making of a Dictator’. Thoroughly recommended. It charts the path of Caesar to power and then absolute power. Firebrand populism to whip up the mob, tenacity, charisma, a brilliant propagandist, skillful at building unholy political alliances, hidden and not so hidden thuggery, a disrespect for institutions and their constraints on power, and then, finally, tyranny. Of course, it all ends in tears five years later in mid-March 44 BC… but the damage was done. The Roman Empire was ruled by dictators for hundreds of years with most vestiges of democracy withering on the vine.

The rise of Julius Caesar could teach us a thing or two…

Remind you of anything?

Western democracy is starting to feel under threat again. Complacent voters disillusioned with the democratic norms of over-promising politicians who under-deliver, are in revolt. There is the incredible but highly possible resurrection of Trump in the US and the rise of the far-right across much of Europe, already running governments in Hungary and Italy but not in Poland thank goodness. The broader Republican Party in the US is tempted to abandon Ukraine and Putin is banking more generally on the West giving up. Looking further afield, Modi in India, (still trading with Russia), is starting to dismantle checks and balances in their democracy.

A commentator on Sky News rather depressingly summed it up this week. Paraphrasing him, he spoke of many power brokers in the US as well as elsewhere who would like the world run by the three Caesars of Trump, Xi and Putin. Democratic norms would continue to disappear as voters were bought off with manipulated expectations. Corrupt elites would rule uninterrupted.

The optimist says that the above will not happen. That voters will wake up in time. That populists in Western democracies to date have largely been grossly incompetent; Trump and Johnson for example… But what happens if they are not incompetent or, in Trump’s case, had powerful allies who would use him as the proverbial Trojan Horse. Think of the damage that could be done with democratic institutions permanently undermined, climate change initiatives reversed, Putin winning a partial victory in Ukraine and further Chinese hegemony.

2024 will be a pivotal year. It may be a good one or not, but like politics in ancient Rome, we had better be on our guard…

Tories head towards the abyss…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Sunak seemed such a breath of fresh air. Polite, diligent, hard-working, technically skilled, good at PMQs. It seemed as if he would rescue the Tories, at least to the extent of minimising their defeat.

No longer. Weighed down by a fundamentally divided party, attacked at every turn by the angry Right, it seems as though he has lost his way. Sunak no longer resonates with the public as his strategic policy choices become increasingly confusing. He was the ‘change candidate’, always a struggle after 13 years of Tory rule, but brought back Cameron. He cancelled HS2 to Manchester whilst in… Manchester. And although it might not resonate very widely, as leader of a party that is meant to be in favour of a smaller, non-intrusive State, he announced he would make it an offence for anyone born after 2009 to be sold tobacco. A little populist spat with Greece over the Elgin marbles recently just made Sunak look small and added to questions about his political judgement.

Things are going from bad to worse…

A solid Autumn statement was too little too late. The tax burden is still rising, public services are still failing, and no one is really listening anymore because few believe the Tories will be around in the next few months to implement any longer-term tax and spend plans.

And then the obsession with illegal (and legal) migration. Sunak has refused to face down the Right on this issue, managing to seem weak, incompetent and illiberal all at the same time. Surely, he has nothing to lose. Whatever treaty amendments are made with Rwanda, the policy is now in tatters. Costing £165 million and rising, one doubts a single plane will take off to this destination before the next General Election. He has ignored or is ignoring sensible, practical solutions advocated by his party’s Left, such as constructive cooperation with the EU, because he feels he needs higher profile, more definitively ‘red meat solutions’. The problem with this approach is that he upsets moderate Tory voters and fails to appease his right-wing who are watching the rise of Reform in the polls with increasing alarm.

Net legal migration figures have soared, illegal migration still feels out of control. The new Home Secretary, James Cleverly, has had his past moderate comments on the topic thrown back at him, consequently plummeting down the popularity league table amongst Tory Party members. Crazy.

Sunak appears harried and who could blame him if he has had enough. The Tories need to leave office, move to the Right in private and look forward to many years in the wilderness, before regaining commonsense with an expanded, more representative grassroots base, frankly without the need of a fair proportion of their current membership at all.

Starmer has become a lucky politician and is being treated as the next Prime Minister, which in itself, allows him to gain stature. In the face of all the uneasy compromises Starmer made to become leader, just this week he embraced Thatcher and fiscal conservatism, straight out of the Tony Blair playbook. He can afford to because brutally, suddenly, his Tory opponents have collapsed.