Extreme versus Extreme; looking good for the Liberal Democrats

Two extreme leaders. No, I am not talking about Johnson sitting next to Trump* at the UN, treating the abeyance of law as an inconvenience, but Johnson versus Corbyn. More about Corbyn’s Labour Party later.

First, the extraordinary situation of the Government’s proroguing of Parliament being declared illegal, unanimously, by our entirely objective Supreme Court. It is without precedent. Brexit was about ‘taking back control of our own laws’. Well that has happened with a vengeance. Hurrah.

Lady Hale delivering Supreme Court verdict. Image via Independent

Johnson, led by his out of control adviser, Dominic Cummings, has disgraced his office. His actions have been entirely un-Conservative. Whilst this ruling does not resolve Brexit, a scorched earth policy of driving Brexit through by 31st October is unravelling. Too many mistakes, too quickly. He should resign and be replaced by a moderate, caretaker Conservative leader who seeks cross party consensus on a way out of the Brexit impasse, offering the electorate a series of options to be voted on by order of preference. That new leader should, in the process, also start to rebuild the Conservative Party on the centre-right ground.

Stage left, so to speak, we then have the disastrous Labour Party’s conference which has already been largely forgotten. That is a shame. It began with an attempt to abolish the role of Deputy Leader because the holder, Tom Watson, disagreed with the Leader. Then a series of far left policies; a stubbornly chaotic approach to Brexit, reckless spending, confiscation of company shareholdings, the abolition of private education, wasteful free prescriptions for all, a four day working week. One could go on. The whole conduct of the conference was, well, very Animal Farm.

The two major parties, always a coalition of views, have lost their way. They have moved to the extreme Right and Left, and if they are to survive in their current form need to reform, starting with a review of their membership to remove the influence of infiltrators.

Today, the moderate LibDems look good; largely moderate, reforming and with a crystal clear policy on Brexit. They may not triumph whenever there is a general election, but they deserve to do very well. They are streets ahead in terms of balance and focus.

In a period of chaos, we should pause for a moment and praise our Supreme Court; smart, rational and objective when our politicians are anything but. Lady Hale, the president, was majestic. Her spider brooch worn during her judgement has apparently being turned into a T-shirt. Over 2000 have already been sold in aid of cancer research. You should buy one whilst stocks last as a souvenir of the defence of democracy in momentous times…

*Donald Trump looked very rattled yesterday. Perhaps he is unwell but his exceptionally orange, tired appearance at the UN sat next to Johnson made uncomfortable watching. Two men under immense pressure, with at least one facing impeachment…

Notes from the Liberal Democrat conference…

In sunny Bournemouth earlier this week for the LibDem annual conference, testing the health of centre ground politics in the UK. You will be pleased to know it is alive and kicking but, my, is it exhausting! The LibDems hold the only truly democratic conference of the major parties. There are motions and amendments on all sorts of issues. All debated in minute detail by people who, with their rucksacks and casual dress, often look like renegades from Glastonbury.

Jo Swinson via Sky News

But the delegates are earnest and mostly nice, campaigning fanatics who are incredibly valuable to the British political process, and not to be dismissed. They are making their mark and are resilient to past near wipe outs.

Then there are the newbies at the conference. The number of LibDem MPs has swollen to 18 with defections from both the Tory and Labour parties and there are some real stars among the new intake. Chuka Umunna is immensely impressive and spoke with real charisma. You can see why the new LibDem leader, Jo Swinson, is so pleased to have him, sprinkling stardust everywhere and taking the pressure off her always to perform. He could be leader one day.

For the Tories, Sarah Wollaston also spoke well, and both seem at home in their new party.

And now to Brexit…To date, this is the sole reason for the rejuvenation of the LibDems and quite right too with their firmly pro-EU stance. Their new policy of simply cancelling Brexit if they win a General Election is also smart politics regardless of some doubts that it trashes the last referendum result. The policy is crystal clear and creates a sharp definition to Labour’s woolly stance. Those voting LibDem for the first time at the next election will do so for one reason and one reason only; to stop Brexit. You might as well be ruthless about it.

For the LibDems to make ground-breaking progress, however, they need to have simple, attractive policies beyond Brexit and those should not just be about ‘re purposing capitalism’ and constitutional reform as advocated by the rather self-satisfied political economist, Will Hutton, at fringe meetings. They need tougher, quick win economic policies. They also need to fully recover from the trauma of being in a perfectly good coalition with the Tories under Cameron if they are going to provide a true safe haven for those on the centre-right ground.

Politics in the UK is broken. You only have to witness the Government before our Supreme Court justifying the suspension of parliament to know this. Against this backdrop, the success of the LibDems is refreshing and needed and Jo Swinson has made a solid start. But for many of those who have loyally supported other parties, in my case the Tories, beyond being a home for tactical voting on Brexit, I am not sure. The jury is still out…

Johnson has only one certain way out: an EU deal…

What a couple of weeks! When Johnson became PM, political life was always going to become more colourful but, looking like a set from a Tarantino film, it may be too much even for him…

The strategy of Cummings (Johnson’s senior adviser and the real driver of events) and Johnson was always to enact a scorched earth policy to ensure EU departure by 31st October. With total contempt for the Tory Party and Parliament, Cummings’ aim was to move the Tories and the political agenda to a hard Brexit versus Remain, accuse Parliament of betraying the people and crush the Brexit Party on the way to a famous General Election victory. Grassroots Tories mostly like this even though it was too much for 21 Tory MPs, expelled from the Party for voting against their own government. Other moderates are feeling distinctly queasy.

So how has this strategy fared? On the upside for the hard Brexiteers, Johnson’s brutal approach at least smacks of some leadership and he polls far more strongly than Corbyn. Overall opinion poll ratings have held up and there is a glimmer of hope that a General Election victory may just be possible. The good news, however, stops there.

The danger with a deliberately provocative approach is that it is high risk and makes governing more vulnerable to unexpected ‘events’ and, my, has there been an avalanche of these.

Let’s just run through a few. Ruth Davidson, the moderate, hugely popular Scottish Tory leader, resigns putting probably 10 Scottish Tory seats at risk. Then, incredibly, Johnson’s own brother resigns citing a conflict between the national interest and family. Less of an impact, but still damaging, Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, resigns out of the blue outraged at the expulsion of 21 colleagues. Proroguing Parliament for an extended period ‘whips up’ determined opposition to Johnson’s team and boosts extensive cross-party cooperation. Rees Mogg, Leader of the House of Commons, and Cummings’ consistent goading of moderate Tory MPs has also made the Tory moderates’ rebellion worse.

The consequences? There will now be no General Election in October; Johnson is humiliatingly instructed to seek a deal with the EU or extend membership until end January and is now also forced to publish private communications on the real reasons for proroguing parliament.

Lastly, Speaker Bercow has the last laugh by resigning in this parliament, almost certainly guaranteeing the next Speaker will be a Remainer.

I doubt much of this appeared in Cummings’ play book…The problem with a highly aggressive strategy in a political system of unwritten checks and balances is that it can run out of control, stoking overwhelming hostility and surprising barriers to progress. It is a thrilling ride but not good politics if the end goal is more difficult to achieve. That is what has happened.

In reality, despite all the brave words from Johnson’s camp, it is now hard for the Tories to win a no-deal General Election. Their own internal polling confirms this. The loss of seats to the SNP in Scotland and to the Liberal Democrats in the South, exacerbated by events, means significant Labour seats in the North would have to fall to Johnson. The danger is that Brexit supporting Labour voters won’t just vote on Brexit. Economics matters, hence the recent announcements of a Tory spending splurge, but it is unlikely to be enough.

A possible humiliating and dangerous deal with Farage is an option but Johnson has set himself against this. Farage is loathed more than anyone by Cummings (does he like anybody?) and his whole strategy is designed to take him out.

Oh dear. That leaves a deal with the EU as the only viable option for a Tory victory in a likely November General Election. Watch this space for concessions on the Irish backstop…

Johnson: undone by his own lies…

Most people don’t believe him. Whether it be some of the finest minds in the Conservative Party until they were booted out yesterday, the Opposition or a majority of the electorate.

And with good reason. Johnson prevaricated on which side of the Brexit debate to support in the Referendum. Many people suspect he went for Leave because it was the best route to become Prime Minister. Then there were those untruths about NHS spending on the side of that bus…

Wind on and Johnson is Prime Minister with more dissembling on a daily basis. He doesn’t want a General Election (yes, he does); he wants a EU deal (no, he doesn’t); proroguing parliament is about preparing for the Queen’s Speech (no, it isn’t) etc, etc.

It has, until yesterday, been a carefully staged run up to a No Deal General Election, orchestrated by Dominic Cummings. Cummings, for those not in the know, was the architect of Brexit; often described as a sociopath and anarchist who may not even be a member of the Conservative Party.

But the wheels have just come off the bus, so to speak. Johnson has been rumbled by too many people and his shocking action of withdrawing the whip from leading Conservatives, several of whom were in the Government only a few weeks ago, was the last straw.

So what happens next? Parliament will probably vote later today to prevent a No Deal Brexit. Johnson will try and call a highly divisive General Election on the basis of People versus Parliament for mid-October with the aim of leaving with No Deal. The Opposition would be very wise to try and delay an election until after 31st October, aiming to stay within the EU until a General Election later in the Autumn.

Of course Johnson’s gamble may work whether a General Election is called sooner or later. He could see off Labour and the Brexit Party on the back of an electorate heartily sick of the whole Brexit impasse. But his actions are reckless and divisive.

Johnson is destroying the Conservative Party and possibly the country and our unwritten constitution in the process. He should be held to account for every one of the dissembling statements he has made and the Tories need to look into the abyss and head to the centre ground with fresh leadership. There lies the long term solution to the country’s troubles.

The problem is that we need to get through the next few weeks/months and it could all be very messy indeed.