Farage’s folly…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

This blog has argued for some time that Reform UK has peaked. It is loathed by too many people to win a General Election outright and that is before tactical voting, the advent of a new far-right party, Restore, and at least the short-term impact of a Burnham premiership. Meanwhile, the party sits at the top of opinion polls waiting for new ‘events… dear boy, events’ to possibly consume it.

Those events are happening now and not in a good way for this insurgent party. The strength of Reform has always been its controversial leader, Nigel Farage, surely one of the most consequential politicians of the last few decades. Its weakness has been, well, Nigel Farage The party is too much of a one man band. He has a thin skin, cannot get on with anyone for long, is not interested in policy detail and is loose with the truth even for a politician. Remind you of anyone? None of this seemed to matter. A Guardian lead writer when asked what was the main parties’ strategy towards Reform, in the face of Farage’s continuing popularity replied their only hope was that something happened to incapacitate him.

He is not a cat and maybe running out of lives…

Well, incapacitated he might become for reasons not forecast a few weeks ago. First came the hidden personal donation to Farage of £5 million from a Thai based crypto billionaire. He has given three contradictory reasons for being given the gift, none of them convincing and now faces a parliamentary standards inquiry. Next comes receiving undeclared benefits from a convicted fraudster, meriting a second enquiry. At worse, these scandals could force Farage out of parliament.

Clearly rattled and genuinely angry about being hounded by the press, he has decided to resign his seat and force a by-election in his parliamentary seat of Clacton on the subject of his innocence of breaking any rules. “I’ve decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions,” said Farage in a televised address yesterday. “This will be a people versus the establishment by-election.”

Umm… this is not America. You actually can’t get away with too much in public life. The major parties are planning to boycott the election making an initial victory for Farage meaningless. They will await the results of a resumed parliamentary standards enquiry which may lead to a second by-election which will then be contested.

This may well be curtains for Farage. The public is tired of all the drama in UK politics and one senses they have little sympathy for him and may have had enough.

As for Farage, he looks as if he might have had enough too. Bored of being in parliament, watching his party consistently underperform in by-elections and now all this scrutiny. He may simply have run out of juice and give up.

Who could blame him? What a pity.

Democrats are going through their Corbyn phase…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Yes, I am back in the USA with colleagues, flogging our little bag of marketing services to scarily successful investment houses in New York and Chicago. I love it here but America often feels very foreign and I am ready to go back home after a busy few days.

Not only do I like the country and the people but also America’s political system. Not because I agree with it. It is endlessly challenging to accept from the money involved, the growing tension of state versus federal governance, the bloated deficit, the lack of a fully independent judiciary system and, of course, the increasingly erratic, ugly face of today’s presidency…. but because it is fascinating.

Over to Donald Trump then. There is no such thing as the Republican Party any more even after a few feeble challenges to Trump’s authority. He is running rampant and simply doesn’t care about the consequences of his actions, too numerous to mention here. Janan Ganesh, one of the FT’s leading commentators, at the time of his re-election said you should be very scared about a second Trump presidency because he cannot seek a further term of office. He can therefore do anything and not worry about a lack of popularity. In fact, it is often touted that he would prefer a Democrat successor so he can say he is the only person who can win a presidential election as a Republican… umm… Thank goodness for the courts, even his partly hand-picked Supreme Court, are just about reining him in even if it is a constant battle. The Supreme Court today, for example, has made a hugely significant ruling in upholding birthright citizenship (that almost everyone born on US soil is a citizen) which is a major blow to the Trump administration.

Sorry, Democrats, a lurch to the left Corbyn-style is no solution…

That takes us to the Democrats. What a mess! They are even more unpopular than the GOP and only enjoy a poll lead in the mid-terms because of Trump’s unpopularity although, incredibly, a third of voters still think Trump is doing a good job. Biden may now be gone but the manner in which he stayed in power long after he was incapable of holding it has contributed lasting damage.

The Democrats are led by complacent donkey’s in Congress propped up by the malign influence of the Clintons and Obamas who revel in their celebrity status. They are often seen as the continuation of an amoral establishment who, however unfair, made little difference to the quality of life of ordinary voters.

Whilst sitting here in New York, it is clear the Democrats lack a believable, forceful leader who can provide direction to the Party nationally. In this absence and the consequent vacuum comes a Corbyn style solution. Democratic socialism led by the ageing Bernie Sanders, the charismatic US representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the newly elected New York mayor, Zohran Mamdani are leading the charge. Mamdani has just succeeded in replacing three incumbent House of Representatives candidates in New York with his own people and the same is happening across the Democratic Party as frustration mounts that establishment Democrats are just not making an impact in challenging the aggressive form of US capitalism and sometimes grotesque disparity of wealth it creates.

Fair enough, except as in most Western democracies, the majority of the electorate resides in the centre-ground of politics. Trump was never a shoe-in. The Democrats drove voters to elect him with their complacency, arrogance and lack of understanding of voters’ concerns. However, they are in danger of repeating a similar mistake with an unpopular lurch to the sugar rush left. For all its merits borne out of sheer frustration we know how the story ends. If in doubt, speak to Jeremy Corbyn…

Just get on with it, Andy…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Aren’t we all just sick of UK politics generally and the Labour Party in particular. Watching the news this morning with apolitical friends, the common view was politicians are just dissemblers as a series of interviews showcased the self-serving hypocrisy of (mostly but not all) Labour spokespeople. Starmer has been treated shamefully by his party. Who can blame him for wanting to dig in but he would probably be unwise. The momentum is clearly against him. Burnham scored a handsome victory last night and, most importantly, saw off Reform comfortably, a favour to all of us moderates. That is what will count in the end with Labour MPs and members and provides further evidence Reform has peaked. That is good news at least.

The overrated, self-styled ‘King of the North’ – what nonsense – should just get on and challenge Starmer now to put us out of our misery. He will never be more powerful than he is today and we need a government to govern not the endless soap opera of the last few months. Youth unemployment, welfare bills, social care all need sorting. Business is stymied by tax blocking growth, house building has stalled and that is before issues relating to Europe, the Ukraine war and the continuing chaos in the Middle East are addressed.

Does Burnham have better solutions to any of these intractable issues than Starmer? Probably not. But he is a superior communicator and backbenchers will rally behind him for now. He should go for the leadership, call a general election when he is on the up and requires a mandate and then prove to voters that the constant changing of PMs never works in achieving better governance.

Qualities in a Prime Minister – they are PPLC of course…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

I participated in a breakfast last week with those close to the ‘action’ in Westminster. A highly interesting conversation ensued about the immediate future of UK politics, against the backdrop of the Labour Party’s shenanigans. I thought it was diplomatically worth sharing.

There was a consensus that Burnham would win in Makerfield and that Starmer was toast regardless of his public determination to hang on. The feeling was Burnham should initiate a leadership contest on Friday morning. He would never be more powerful than at that moment and therefore what was the point in waiting. Timing is everything in politics. This was all before the resignation of the Defence Secretary, John Healey, which happened later in the day but I doubt it would have made a difference to anybody’s analysis.

We then moved onto the qualities required in a Prime Minister and how Burnham and Starmer fared on these criteria. Oh dear…

The four qualities identified by the lead speaker were ‘Politics, Policy, Leadership, Communications’. Whilst there was some sympathy for Starmer’s plight (nobody could quite undersand the depth of his personal unpopularity and put it down to the poison of social media), everyone agreed with the view that No. 10 was a shambles. Starmer was hopeless at the politics of his job, had no discernable policy agenda to reflect what he wanted to achieve in office, exhibited no leadership with his endless U-turns and was a poor communicator. No surprise there, then. Score: 0/4.

Overblown potential…

But, Burnham did little better. With his back history of vacillation (not a details person…), with endless U-turns in the past few weeks on WASPI women, bond markets, rejoining the EU and when he might call a General Election, he was perceived to be weak on politics, hopeless on policy and leadership (essentially blowing with the wind), but good on communications. Score: 1.5/4.

So, we are going through all this turmoil for a mediocre replacement for Starmer. You might ask is the hassle worth it…?

On other topics, there was a feeling the Tory frontbench was generally way below par and that with strong recent PMQ performances, Badenoch was safe for a good while. She has no opponents of any merit internally despite missing the open goal of focusing solely on the economy, the Tories best route to regaining power in the medium-term. We were also given a reminder that the Tories had more influence than their current opinion poll ratings suggest; largest party in the House of Lords and still a sizeable local government player. There is a platform to build on should we forget…

With regard to Reform, most thought it had peaked some while ago and that Farage might not be well. Without wishing ill will, this is the only hopeful strategy of the main parties… He has been rather absent recently which surely has nothing to do with him explaining his undisclosed £5 million gift from an offshore crypto billionaire…

On other parties in this new five party system, Polanski has partly blown it for the Greens and Ed Davey’s LibDems elicited almost no comment which says it all really.

So there you have it. The future success of political leadership in the UK is all about PPLC and, on this basis, voters have little to choose from.

Qualities in a Prime Minister – they are PPLC of course…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

I participated in a breakfast last week with those close to the ‘action’ in Westminster. A highly interesting conversation ensued about the immediate future of UK politics, against the backdrop of the Labour Party’s shenanigans. I thought it was diplomatically worth sharing.

There was a consensus that Burnham would win in Makerfield and that Starmer was toast regardless of his public determination to hang on. The feeling was Burnham should initiate a leadership contest on Friday morning. He would never be more powerful than at that moment and therefore what was the point in waiting. Timing is everything in politics. This was all before the resignation of the Defence Secretary, John Healey, which happened later in the day but I doubt it would have made a difference to anybody’s analysis.

We then moved onto the qualities required in a Prime Minister and how Burnham and Starmer fared on these criteria. Oh dear…

The four qualities identified by the lead speaker were ‘Politics, Policy, Leadership, Communications’. Whilst there was some sympathy for Starmer’s plight (nobody could quite undersand the depth of his personal unpopularity and put it down to the poison of social media), everyone agreed with the view that No. 10 was a shambles. Starmer was hopeless at the politics of his job, had no discernable policy agenda to reflect what he wanted to achieve in office, exhibited no leadership with his endless U-turns and was a poor communicator. No surprise there, then. Score: 0/4.

Overblown potential…

But, Burnham did little better. With his back history of vacillation (not a details person…), with endless U-turns in the past few weeks on WASPI women, bond markets, rejoining the EU and when he might call a General Election, he was perceived to be weak on politics, hopeless on policy and leadership (essentially blowing with the wind), but good on communications. Score: 1.5/4.

So, we are going through all this turmoil for a mediocre replacement for Starmer. You might ask is the hassle worth it…?

On other topics, there was a feeling the Tory frontbench was generally way below par and that with strong recent PMQ performances, Badenoch was safe for a good while. She has no opponents of any merit internally despite missing the open goal of focusing solely on the economy, the Tories best route to regaining power in the medium-term. We were also given a reminder that the Tories had more influence than their current opinion poll ratings suggest; largest party in the House of Lords and still a sizeable local government player. There is a platform to build on should we forget…

With regard to Reform, most thought it had peaked some while ago and that Farage might not be well. Without wishing ill will, this is the only hopeful strategy of the main parties… He has been rather absent recently which surely has nothing to do with him explaining his undisclosed £5 million gift from an offshore crypto billionaire…

On other parties in this new five party system, Polanski has partly blown it for the Greens and Ed Davey’s LibDems elicited almost no comment which says it all really.

So there you have it. The future success of political leadership in the UK is all about PPLC and, on this basis, voters have little to choose from.

Why today’s moderates and independents cannot vote Labour…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

It is one of the most damning quotes in recent UK politics. It will do for Labour in the end.

Pat McFadden, the calm, ‘safe pair of hands’ minister was caught saying in a WhatsApp conversation (about his backbenchers) with Mandelson, ‘every meeting I have is ‘who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others’.

This could be the largest fallout from the Mandelson fiasco after the defenestration of Keir Starmer.

It goes to the heart of the stupidity and fecklessness of Labour. It shows a complete misunderstanding of the priorities of the public, of the need for lower taxes on business to create wealth, of the need to get more people into work for their own good and the health of the economy, of what we can afford as a nation. In short, it is infuriating. All is forgiven. Bring back Tony Blair… except he is about as Labour nowadays as Kemi Badenoch.

Labour ministers go on about the need for growth. Either they or their backbenchers or both have no idea what growth means, why it is important, and how to achieve it. Incredibly this was inferred by leaked WhatsApp messages from Darren Jones, Rachel Reeves’ No. 2 at the Treasury, also to Mandelson which surfaced yesterday.

Burnham is no long-term solution to the country’s challenges…

If Burnham becomes the next PM (increasingly likely), the bad traits of a Labour government will get worse. Like the rest of his colleagues he will bang on about ‘working people’ (don’t we all work in any type of job) and be less disciplined on welfare and public expenditure generally. He has already shown irresponsibility towards bond markets. He won’t get the unsustainably of the welfare budget. He is a weak populist and like the worst of his party, almost certainly in hock to the trade unions.

Burnham might justifiably call an election as soon as he moves into No. 10 but he probably shouldn’t. The choice would be too awful for moderates and independents to contemplate, reflecting the current mess called UK politics.

The natural ally of the Tories is now Tony Blair…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

There is only one political organisation occupying the centre ground in UK politics. It is not the LibDems who vacated it years ago. It is Tony Blair and his Institute for Global Change. It is time the Tories embraced its commonsense centre-ground analysis of the world’s problems. You don’t have to agree with Blair’s choice of clients or his slavish obeisance to America to agree with much of the Institute’s output.

Worth listening to…

But Blair has particularly come to the fore this week with his take down of today’s Labour Party. Here is, I confess, a partly AI generated summary of his critique edited by my good self ( I don’t need to read through all the 5600 words…):

  • The “Radical Centre” Blair argues is Labour’s only viable path warning that shifting left to appease internal critics is a perennial, dangerous delusion
  • Governments which succeed don’t start with a personality contest, or a political question, as in: how do we ‘save the country’ from Reform?” Blair writes. “They start with an idea, a project, a governing purpose, an analysis of what is wrong and a plan to put it right.”
  • Labour doesn’t have a coherent, worked-out overall plan for running the country in a fast changing world
  • The government has been tone-deaf to the business community in its initial policies—such as expanding workers’ rights, above-inflation minimum wage hikes, and net-zero carbon pledges. Such initiatives stifle economic growth by failing to make the private sector feel supported
  • Welfare reform is crucial. The rising bill for incapacity and disability benefits is unsustainable, and the triple lock should be the first to go
  • The AI revolution needs to be applied to the whole of government and not be treated as a ‘niche industrial sector’
  • The government needs to keep a grip of immigration to head off the far-right
  • There needs to be a reset on ‘net zero’ policies to tackle the expense of the UK’s energy supply
  • Rejoining the EU is no more a solution than leaving it. A wholesale recalibration of our relationship with the EU is needed, however.

So here we go. What sensible moderate Conservative supporter would disagree with this analysis even with regard to the Labour Party. Of course, Labour’s leadership contenders reply with barbs about inequality showing they don’t have the backbone to take the necessary measures to reduce inequality. The country needs to be better governed with a firm, long-term plan to turn the country around (from not as bad a position as many people believe!). It starts with patient forward thinking policy development focused specifically on the economy.

Today’s Tories seem incapable of the hard work required in Opposition to present a viable case for governing three years from now. It takes time which Thatcher and Blair used effectively. Perhaps they should team up with the Institute for Global Change for a bit of grown-up politics free from worrying about month-to-month opinion polls…

Burnham provides a route back for the Tories

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Shame on the Labour Party. Despite Starmer’s refrain of putting country before party, it has done the opposite. In stabbing Starmer in the back wholly unnecessarily, we have a zombie government led by a zombie prime minister at a time of national peril (Ukraine, Iran etc). Labour is simply no longer fit for office whoever leads it. This situation could go on for months if Starmer is determined not to stand down.

And what a motley crew of candidates seeking to replace him. The hugely overrated Burnham versus ‘I have just blown up my career’ Streeting versus the preposterous Rayner or incredible Ed ‘failed last time but that shouldn’t count’ Miliband.

None of them are fundamentally up to the job…

The favourite, assuming he survives a Reform by-election challenge in Makerfield, is Burnham. Why? Manchester’s success is largely down to the actions of the former Leader and Chief Executive of Manchester City Council not the mayor. Burnham’s national policy pronouncements are also hardly impressive; rowing back on blowing up the bond markets or watering down any urge to embrace the EU. He wants to renationalise a swathe of industries and will undoubtedly move the Labour government to the Left although further delegation of powers to the regions does makes sense. He is not a details man.

Burnham will make no meaningful difference to Labour’s fortunes except to at least initially be less unpopular than Starmer. One doubts he will overcome the electorate’s frustration over the chaos at the heart of government.

It is a common belief that the beneficiary of all this is Reform but I don’t agree. Farage has his own troubles and not just the investigation into a £5 million gift. He has a natural ceiling of support which is not far from where his party is now and the current mayhem presents a clear opportunity for the Tories if they were willing to take it. Badenoch has performed well recently and should make sure the Conservative Party contests Makerfield vigorously despite the certain wipeout.

The Tories then need to remake their case for economic competence stating clearly how they would manage public expenditure, introduce business friendly policies and realistically talk about tax aims. The conversation with voters must be clear and honest and include accepting responsibility for past mistakes and perhaps hinting at greater cooperation with the EU, starting with defence which is surely palatable to all Tories… Ultimately, ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ should be their one and only refrain since Labour under a Burnham government or Reform under a Farage government would both be reckless financially. It will still take a good while for the electorate to warm to the Tories of course after their incompetent past but at least Labour is now in the same boat!

The gap in today’s British politics is ideal for a centre-right party to differentiate itself with policies that reward aspiration whilst firmly but sensitively reducing the size of the state. Are the Tories disciplined enough to do this in the face of populism? Today, I doubt it but one lives in hope…

Labour now unfit to govern but what is the alternative?

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Nigel Farage must be rubbing his hands with glee even as he faces a formal enquiry into his £5 million gift from a crypto billionaire. Whatever Reform and its leader get up to it cannot be more embarrassing than the current activities of the Labour Party.

Starmer maybe a decent person but to date he has been a poor prime minister. Does this merit a challenge to his leadership? Would his colleagues be any better? Almost certainly not and nothing justifies the current political circus as the country struggles with multiple problems.

Labour has got itself into an awful mess as it grapples with changing its leader. Equal support for Starmer, Burnham and Streeting. Ministers and backbench MPs in equal numbers calling for Starmer to go or stay. As authority drains away from Starmer’s government, it now seems less likely Starmer will hold on. It feels as if the excitable media is getting its way.

Whilst we await Streeting’s rush to challenge Starmer before Burnham gets into parliament you may ask why doesn’t he concentrate on turning round the NHS? Why doesn’t Burnham concentrate on running Manchester? Why doesn’t Angela Rayner concentrate on sorting out her tax affairs? Why doesn’t the government govern?

Changing prime ministers every five minutes is no solution to improving how the country is run. Just ask the Tories. The country currently feels ungovernable, certainly not governable by second rate politicians and the public are entitled to despair. Not only over the behaviour of the Labour Party but because there seems no other alternative.

That 25% support for Reform, putting it in first place in the polls looks more significant by the hour although not yet enough.

Not yet two years after a general election, political gridlock? Is that now the only option? How thoroughly depressing.

Keep Calm and Carry On…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

No pictures today. The blog is being written on a ship, mid-Atlantic…

But with access to all the usual news channels it is easy to track the UK’s local election results. And, well, no surprises really. All the parties mostly did as expected. Confirmation of a wholly fractured electoral landscape was made clear.

First, Reform. With c25% of the vote their success is of course a reflection of voter disillusionment with established parties. They are now in the driving seat to run a swathe of councils. Their record to date has often been chaotic although making little fundamental difference to any council’s activities. Only time will tell if they are able to survive voter scrutiny. We will hear far more from Farage in the coming months but he has one major problem. He and his party are loathed by three quarters of the public and this isn’t going to change between now and the General Election.

For the other parties, ex Labour, the Tories’ electoral irrelevance was confirmed. The disappointing performance of the LibDems highlighted for anybody taking notice. The Greens and SNP did well but fell short of the more optimistic expectations. Plaid Cymru saw off Reform in Wales. Good for them. Remember, at one stage, Reform was expected to come top.

That only leaves Labour… umm…

The elections were a disaster for the government. The sheer unpopularity of Starmer and his ineffectual administration stripped Labour bare.

The path to recovery, however, is really quite simple. Lay out a clear policy plan and deliver. Is Starmer the man to do this? Almost certainly not, as shown by the bizarre appointments of Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman to vague government roles. But, there is no alternative amongst his colleagues. They are mostly all tainted, more left-wing or useless. Often all three and that includes Andy Burnham. Oh dear indeed…

Populists thrive when moderates fail. Speak to the Democrats about Trump is one glaring example. So, in this respect, it was a good night for Reform. There is currently no alternative to the current mob in power including Starmer and Reform can afford to sit it out, basking in the electoral sunlight.

Starmer is likely to be safe for now. Changing prime ministers every five minutes doesn’t work. Keep Calm and Carry On or to put it another way, wait for something to turn up is probably the only option. What a choice… We are three years from a General Election. After the past week it suddenly feels just around the corner…