The Leadership contest to date has been unedifying. Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss running an almost scorched earth policy as they critique each other’s policy offerings. Neither may get a role in each other’s Cabinet, least of all Sunak who will probably leave politics if he loses or at least take a back seat.

Who is the real Thatcherite and does it matter?

It makes you wonder what the Tory Government has been doing for the past 12 years to face such internal criticism and why such an improvement of approach is needed? Sunak has participated in a Johnson Cabinet with all its populism and lack of integrity for nearly three years. Truss longer, and whilst she has less problem with Johnson, has trashed her government’s economic policies.

The main divide is economics but a crucial, more subtle one, is culture. We will come back to that later. But in terms of tax and spend, each candidate claims to be an heir to Thatcher. Really? One doubts Thatcher, for all her loathing of the EU, would have actually taken the economic risk of leaving it, and she always stood for sound money, raising taxes in her early years to protect the nation’s finances.

Both now believe in Brexit, but Liz Truss also supports £30 billion of unfunded tax cuts to drive growth. There is no evidence this would work. Conventional wisdom suggests it will drive up inflation and interest rates, negating any benefits such extra expenditure might bring. But apparently conventional wisdom is now confined to ‘Group or Treasury think’. Sunak, a more conventional Tory, wants inflation down before tax cuts and places himself as careful with the nation’s finances. Now that is more Thatcherite!

The problem for Sunak is that the Tory membership is not listening. One suspects they find him too slick, too rich and ultimately a Johnson knifer. His performance in the BBC debate on Monday was uncharacteristically aggressive, the impression being he feels he has nothing to lose. Truss, on the other hand, is going for growth come what may. She wants those tax cuts, a 20% reduction in crime (how?), Rwanda, the destruction of the Northern Ireland Protocol and a more aggressive approach to the EU generally. All this tunes in culturally with the narrow voting audience she is aiming for. In addition, one only needs to look at mooted Cabinet picks generally to know Sunak is a centrist Tory whilst Truss, playing to the Right, will continue fighting Johnson’s culture wars whether deep down she believes in them or not.

Truss is likely to win and the Tories will march further to the Right into unchartered waters under her leadership, vacating what little of the centre-right ground they might once have held. The problem for the next General Election (unlikely to be before July 2023 boundary changes which theoretically give the Tories a further 13 seats) is that Truss is no Johnsonian communicator and starts with only 32% of her colleagues supporting her. Her approach to governing may not hold enough Red Wall seats and will almost certainly lose her more seats in the South. The Labour and LibDem leaders are consequently very happy…

The only way Truss’s march on No.10 may get interrupted is if there is a ‘blow-up’ during the campaign. Intriguingly, the electorate of Tory members are allowed to change their postal vote on-line later in the contest if they wish to. Someone is hedging their bets somewhere…

All this is a reminder that Party members of all persuasions are generally not at their wisest in choosing their leaders. Surely, for the Tories, when in office, only MPs should pick who should be Prime Minister leaving a wider vote for those relatively rare periods of Opposition. The public, today, is entitled to feel disenfranchised by a Tory membership which sometimes isn’t in tune even with Tory voters.

The Conservative Party’s summer is likely to be long, hot and unpleasant. Time to leave the country and go on holiday. An EU country seems a suitable destination…

Happy August!

This has been an excruciating two weeks for Tory sympathisers. They have watched agog as candidates ripped each other apart in the race to be their Party’s next leader, most noticeably in the TV debates.

And now, as the process wends its way to the judgement of Conservative Party members, there is a somewhat unedifying choice between the last two candidates standing: Rishi Sunak verus Liz Truss.

Hobson’s choice…?

The most qualified and able by far is Rishi Sunak. He rose to the job of Chancellor in the most challenging of circumstances and acquitted himself well. The problem he has is that in pursuing the perfectly legitimate objective of controlled budget deficits, he has increased taxes to a 70 year high which is not going down well with voters generally or Tory members in particular. He has attacked Truss, his final opponent, for her fantasy approach to economics. She has, in return, attacked him for these tax rises. Both have created much fodder for Labour which was painfully evident in PMQs this afternoon. Keir Starmer, its leader, had a field day.

The additional challenge Sunak has is that he is a rich Thatcherite (incredibly painted as ‘left-wing’ by Truss supporters) with a slightly questionable family tax history. I am just not sure this will play well in Red Wall seats and, again, provides much ammunition to those on the opposition benches.

Then to Liz Truss. She is widely considered awful by many of her colleagues, more than two-thirds of which didn’t vote for her. I have experienced the most diplomatic of senior Tories holding their heads in their hands when her name is mentioned. No credible record as a minister who, as a former Remainer, has styled herself as tough on the EU to reach the last two of this contest. She has advocated breaking international law over the Northern Ireland Protocol and relations with our largest trading partner would almost certainly deteriorate if she were to be elected. She has acquired some distinctly unpleasant right-wing supporters on her journey, is economically illiterate and would quickly lose credibility as PM. Oh dear.

The person eliminated today is Penny Mordaunt. She ran a weak campaign with little substance, but one senses she would have picked a solid team behind her. A moderate Brexiteer and social liberal, depressingly savaged by the Daily Mail, she would have provided a better choice against Sunak.

Well, the Tory Party is where it is. Presenting a Hobson’s choice to many, three things strike me as obvious; it has to be Sunak as leader (he has a good chance despite Tory members favouring Truss today); the election is surely not going to be held until 2024 in the hope that voters forget the happenings of this summer and Labour’s chances of winning the next election have improved immeasurably.

Actually, not much has changed. Sunak (101 votes, increase of 13) leads, followed by Mordaunt (83 votes, increase of 16). Truss third (64 votes, increase of 14) which must be a little disappointing. Kemi Badenoch fourth (49 votes, increase of 9) has done well but there may be some skullduggery here. Gove is supporting her! Tugendhat fourth (32 votes, decrease of 5) which is certainly disappointing. Finally, a sigh of relief all round, Suella Braverman has been eliminated (27 votes, decrease of 5).

The Famous Five…

No clear result in sight as we move to the television debates, beginning Friday (probably four of them), but the momentum today still resides with Mordaunt who is scoring well amongst Tory members. Mordaunt is, as yet, untested but you can tell she is perceived as a threat. The attacks on her are rising.

Sunak toured the studios today and sounded a little slick and evasive. Justin Webb on the Today programme was having none of it and roughed him up somewhat. Rumours that Gavin Williamson is lending the ex-Chancellor’s campaign his dark arts also doesn’t help. You have to ask what is Williamson for in politics? Sunak will have to up his game.

As for the others, Truss is still in the race. Badenoch and Tugendhat looking for profile and promotions in the next Cabinet.

Starmer et al should be putting the work in to maximise the damage being done to the Tories’ reputation from this leadership contest otherwise a crucial opportunity will be lost. Meanwhile, the poor voting public look on with a mixture of disgust, boredom, indifference but just… just occasionally… fascination.

We will all know who the last two candidates are by next Thursday. Phew!

So still all to play for but Penny Mordaunt is the one to beat and presents the trickiest challenge for Keir Starmer.

Jeremy Hunt (18 votes) and Sajid Javid (eliminated earlier) have paid the price for dullness. Nadim Zahawi (25 votes) has paid the price for missteps in becoming Chancellor and then calling for Johnson to stand down. His tax arrangements also look curious, and the Tories don’t want to go there. They have all gone. You need to get 30 votes to reach tomorrow’s next round of voting.

All change at the top…

On the Right of a Party which has already drifted further to the right, Truss (50 votes) did less well than expected and it is more difficult today to see her in the last two to be voted on by the membership. Incredibly the controversial Suella Braverman (32 votes) is still just in the race, but her time must be up.

On the Left, Tom Tugendhat (37 votes) did respectably but his time looks to be up too. He deserves a key post in the next Cabinet.

Kemi Badenoch (40 votes) performed strongly. What she represents is uncertain, but her time will come again.

That leaves Rishi Sunak (88 votes). He leads but not by enough. Would voters warm to a rich, avowed Thatcherite after years of austerity and a cost-of-living crisis? Also, with tax issues. Umm… I think he would be Starmer’s choice…He also has many enemies in the Johnson camp.

So, today, it seems like Sunak versus Mordaunt, incredibly with the momentum behind Mordaunt. Read this quickly. It could all change tomorrow and this snap analysis only has a shelf life of 24 hours!

Oh dear… Two leadership candidates have already declared; Suella Braverman, the appalling Attorney General, who managed to announce her intentions but not resign from Cabinet and Steve Baker, the hard right backbench MP, who pledged unity whilst having actively plunged the knife into the last three leaders. It almost makes you nostalgic for Boris Johnson. Well, not quite.

Goodbye Boris Johnson…

What the last few days have shown us is how unfit the Tories currently are to hold office. Over 50 resignations from government, yet only four from the Cabinet to oust Johnson. We have had months of Johnson’s colleagues repeating untruths, chaotic policy making, the threatened breaking of international law, the resignation of ethics advisers. Taxes, at record levels, have gone up and then down a little, institutions have been trashed, we are still fighting Brexit. The list goes on.

What is clear is that many in Johnson’s Cabinet should not be in a future one whoever is the next leader. Preferably Johnson’s successor should not be tainted by having served under him. There is much talent elsewhere in the Party that should be tapped.

It may well be too late for a Party too long in office and the public will not forget easily the chaos of the last few weeks. But here are a few tips for sorting it out:

• Remove all underperforming cabinet ministers and those who could not see the amorality of Johnson’s reign
• Ban backbench WhatsApp pressure groups for the sake of unity which have undermined leaders since Cameron
• Put Brexit behind us and bring back into the fold those who left the Party either voluntarily or involuntarily on this issue
• Negotiate a settlement with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol and immigration and outline a new constructive relationship with our largest trading partner
• Cancel the Rwanda deal
• Sort out tax policy with a medium (not short-term) plan to reduce taxes
• Clarify infrastructure investment plans particularly in relation to transport and green energy
• Basically, get back to policy making with a longer term focus and keep ministers in their jobs for as long as possible. Rotating ministerial positions (ex the last few days!) do not make good government
• Put ethical standards at the heart of the new administration
• Move the Tory Party back to the centre ground generally both in terms of policy but also choice of language

The divisive, discredited Johnson cannot be a caretaker Prime Minister whilst waiting for a new leader if the Tory Party wants to minimise the damage done to its reputation. We have a Deputy Prime Minister who will do for now. The poetic justice of all this is that if Johnson goes today, his term of office will be 28 days shorter than that of Theresa May’s. Who can blame her if she continues to vote in leadership elections wearing a ballgown…

It has been a long time coming, but finally Cabinet ministers have walked. They simply cannot continue defending the lies, yes lies, coming out of Downing Street. The consequences of Johnson’s amorality are laid bare.

Gaps appearing around the Cabinet table…

The contents of the resignation letters from Sajid Javid, Health Secretary, and Rishi Sunak, Chancellor, are extraordinary, even by the standards of this government:

Rishi Sunak: ‘…the public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously… that is why I am resigning’

Sajid Javid: ‘The vote of confidence was a moment for humility, grip and new direction… this situation will not change under your leadership and you have therefore lost my confidence too.’

Further junior ministerial resignations were happening as this commentary was being written this morning. In fact they have turned into such a torrent the blog is being updated for unfolding events. Extraordinary. This government is imploding before our eyes whilst the country faces an economic crisis and a war in Ukraine. It can’t carry on like this and the public will rightly conclude Johnson’s time is up.

So, what happens next? Remaining Cabinet members, many second-rate, will hold on, increasingly discredited but knowing they have their job only due to Johnson. It will not be enough. Johnson will never resign willingly but the Party is rapidly moving collectively to oust him. Rumours abound that delegations of ‘men in grey suits’ are seeing Johnson this afternoon. No longer a resignation by the Autumn but a likelihood of one this week, perhaps today. Johnson may not even last to attend the Liaison Committee scheduled for 3pm. Has ever a premiership collapsed so quickly? Elections to the 1922 Committee this month which sets the Tories’ leadership rules will be organising a leadership election, not changing the rules for another confidence vote. The findings of the Privileges Committee opining on whether Johnson misled Parliament, a resigning offence, will now seem somewhat ‘after the event’ by the Autumn.

It is easy to say ‘I told you so’ but many people, often good, moderate Tories, consistently warned of the dangers of a Johnson premiership, and their predictions have comprehensively come true.

As for the future of the Tory Party, likely leadership candidates are Tom Tugendhat, Liz Truss, Nadim Zahawi, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Penny Mordant and possibly Ben Wallace and Rishi Sunak, although the latter may well choose to leave politics. Incredibly, the Brexit obsessed Tory Party is unlikely to elect a Remainer so that possibly rules out Tom Tugendhat and Jeremy Hunt on this issue alone. Liz Truss is hugely unpopular with her colleagues and Sajid Javid doesn’t set hearts racing. The momentum is currently with Ben Wallace and particularly Nadim Zahawi but many things can change and change quickly over the coming days and weeks.

Only Keir Starmer’s mediocrity stands between the Tories and electoral annihilation. What a fall from grace for a Party that won an 80 seat majority just three years ago. It is down to one man’s well trailed flaws which have been brutally exposed once in office.