In your dreams, Rishi…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

In The Times yesterday, surveying the wreckage of the local election results, Rishi Sunak was quoted as saying Britain was heading for a hung parliament at the general election with a Labour government having to be propped up by smaller parties. Nice try, Rishi, but you have got to be joking…

It could barely have been worse for the Tories…

The results were a disaster for the Tories. The fact that Labour only got 34% of the vote is irrelevant, being obscured by all sorts of local factors that won’t be repeated at a general election. Labour won almost everywhere they had to, often very comfortably and the LibDems and Greens had good results too. What was remarkable is that Labour, in particular, for the first time in a generation, are distributing their votes efficiently rather than simply piling them up in inner cities where they were already doing well. That is a very, very bad omen for the Tories.

The clear message is that most voters are heartedly sick of the Tories and will go to any lengths to get rid of them. It really doesn’t matter how relatively unpopular Starmer is versus Blair in his hey day. It is time for a change and the huge anti-Tory coalition will swing into place ruthlessly in the Autumn voting tactically to wreak the most damage; LibDems in the South/South West and Labour everywhere else including Scotland which of course wasn’t voting last week. Reform UK will undercut the Tories from the Right, everyone else from the Left. Oh dear indeed…

This blog currently predicts not a hung parliament but a Tory wipe-out. They will be lucky to survive with a 150 seats.

And only some while after the next election will the Tories get interesting again. Every government needs a decent opposition and Labour with an inherited economic mess and no clear mandate in terms of policy commitments will quickly become unpopular. There may at least be some curiosity about what lessons the Tories have learnt from their defenestration.

The problem is that, today, there are very few indications from leading Tories they will learn anything. With rumours of a Johnson/Farage realignment of the Right of politics using the vehicle of a hugely weakened Tory Party a year or too hence, with good moderate Tories going/gone (the former West Midlands mayor, Andy Street, being one of these) and the existing left of the Tory Party seemingly (self) defeated, the Labour Party regardless of their competence may be in power for a very long time.

Time for a new centre-right party you might think. Well, however laudable, we have been here before and it seems as likely as one of Sunak’s unintended jokes about a hung parliament.

Updated thoughts from South America…

~ Julian Samways ~ 4 Comments

The blog has been quiet for a while. Western politics generally has been transparent if unedifying, particularly from afar, and there has been little new analysis to add. This will change as we run run up to the two big events, elections in the UK and US. Although, one shouldn’t ignore Modi’s likely win in India and his increasingly autocratic tendencies. Or the potential success of the Far Right in Europe. But another time.

The past month has been spent on a mini sabbatical across South America with a few days in Miami at the end. It is sadly over but the travels were constantly fascinating for where else can you find extreme mountain, desert, and jungle conditions lying cheek by cheek. Oh, and great wine, of course…


And then the people. As I crossed Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, and now Columbia, what did I find from chatting to all and sundry?

The consistent themes in lively conversations were pressures from corruption, climate change, and migration, but also optimism as these countries increasingly embrace and celebrate social diversity.

First corruption, the fuel of inequality. Why don’t leaders just take 50 million dollars out of the system rather than billions and genuinely transform their country, leaving a legacy money can’t buy?

Argentina’s leaders, whether past military or civilian, with so much resource, have squandered billions over decades, buying off parts of the poorer electorate in the process to hold power. The banking system is screwed, and nobody keeps their money in the country if they can avoid it (even my guide had a Costa Rican bank account for tips!). One perfect example of corruption is the railway system. Sold off in the 1990s by the faintly ridiculous President Menem to corrupt property speculators, most of it was promptly shut down. With similar ‘initiatives’ elsewhere, you can really only travel long distances in South America by plane.

Many voters in Argentina have now turned to the extreme libertarian president Milei to unravel a bloated, bankrupt state, but he has no majority in Congress and frankly seems a bit of a joke. His victory according to those I spoke to comes out of despair…

Corruption in Chile is also rife, but with a better functioning economy based on a middle class, that has survived past army rule (although Pinochet’s son still runs land and companies given to him during his father’s reign!).  The current left-wing president, Boric, who, like Milei, can also get nothing past Congress, now has rumoured corruption problems of his own.

Columbia’s recent past is in many respects, surprisingly similar to Chile and Argentina. Often extreme left and right participants but with the added unique twist of a history rooted in drug related guerilla and paramilitary warfare, now hugely moderated, corruptly fight over the spoils of an otherwise upwardly mobile country. A corruption scandal involving the son and brother of the current, first leftist president Petro, an ex M-19 guerilla member, linked to guess what, drug related finance, is currently unfolding.

Almost without exception, everybody I have conversed with seems cynical and weary of politics and politicians, knowing that if anything gets done properly, it is unlikely to be by the government.

In passing, I mentioned to the guides on my tour that there was a huge corruption scandal in the UK. The deputy leader of the Labour Party allegedly defrauded the taxpayer of £1500 ten years ago. The incredulity on their faces…

Then climate change and migration. The continent in many places I visited is drying out and not simply due to the El Nino effect, as temperatures rise. Unseasonal water shortages are now common. Migration is also a huge problem, particularly from basket case Venezuela. Oh, for the firm smack of a Rwandan policy… It is causing pressures everywhere, as are economic disparities between countries generally. Fertile ground for the drugs trade, although its impact has fragmented and crossed borders, notably now causing chaos in Ecuador rather than Columbia.

Finally, diversity and inclusion, an upbeat note on which to end. All countries I visited have benefitted from protests by younger generations over the past two decades or so, sick of corruption, violence, and repression. Notably, in Chile and Columbia, in different measures, the fight back has led to a focus on women’s rights, gay rights, articulated through a vibrant arts scene, all driven by enlightened political discourse.

For all the lost opportunities and challenges this continent faces, the mood is largely upbeat, and mostly thanks to the efforts of the younger generation, the future looks bright.

South American politics comes to the USA…

A postscript on Miami… Whilst there the Trump ‘hush money’ court case began in New York plus Trump’s challenge to guarantee full presidential immunity unfolded in the Supreme Court. Incredible that this man is still ahead in the polls with the latest one giving him a 6% lead. Only the hush money trial will now be heard before the election, so you really have to hope it resonates and that in the end Americans vote with their heads not their hearts. Otherwise, we are all up the proverbial creek without a paddle…

Armageddon for the Tories

~ Julian Samways ~ 2 Comments

There has been no blog for the past few weeks. The trajectory of politics has been pretty predictable and there has been nothing to add; the gradual demise of today’s Tories, the rise of Trump and the truly vile anti-West right-wing Republicans, the permanence of Putin and populism on the march in Europe.

But having spent some time with senior Tories recently, the sheer disaster awaiting them at the next Election is clearly coming into view and they know they can do nothing about it. This will be no 1992 all over again. The Tories will be routed and 1997 may evoke fond memories for them in comparison.

Ah, I hear people say, there is no appetite for Starmer. It doesn’t matter. The public is so heartedly sick of the Tories, Labour will storm it whether it is partly due to Tories staying at home (similar to 1997) or the rise of Reform UK or the rise of the LibDems in the South or the collapse of the SNP in the North.

Interestingly, Sky News do a tracking poll of 33 voters who voted Tory in 2019. Nine are switching to Labour and five to Reform. On this small sample alone, the Tory vote will be down by over 40%. Interesting, really, that we seem to be the only major democracy currently moving mostly to the left even if it is without enthusiasm.

Holding a sword… a key attribute apparently to becoming the next Tory leader…

But it can hardly be surprising. The behaviour of senior Tories is appalling, now contemplating another change at the top from the decent if increasingly politically hapless Sunak. Penny Mordaunt is the next sacrificial lamb mooted as leader, her key merit being she held a sword aloft very well at the Coronation. You really can’t write the script…

To some extent it is Sunak’s fault. He is no Tory left-winger but in trying to ingratiate himself with the Right he has simply earned their contempt. He should have stood up to them from the start. If they felt Johnson and Truss were ok why did he think they would ever accept him? Let them clear off to Reform if they have to. It will ultimately be a political dead-end.

The only silver lining, first highlighted by the excellent Stephen Bush in the FT, is that post-election there is a small chance the Tories move to the centre-ground as right-wingers amongst the grassroots head elsewhere. Certainly, analysis shows the parliamentary party will not move much to the Right in composition if it is defenestrated. Umm…, I am not so sure. It partly takes ruthlessness from moderates to seize control of the Tory Party and there is currently no evidence they are up for the fight.

Hey ho. It feels like an exciting year ahead politically but one where no one really gets what they want!

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Several topics this week and none of them good…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

No one political event this week requires a dedicated blog. Three occurrences have all raised issues of importance, none of which fill you with optimism…

The tin ear of Sunak

This blog rated Sunak as a competent technocrat who would restore a degree of sanity to the Conservative Party. At the same time, it also predicted he wouldn’t particularly resonate with the electorate. Too true. His lack of political nous is somewhat of an understatement. He has tried to re-boot his premiership many times in many different directions and yet to no beneficial effect whatsoever. He was to be the competent steady ship with a firm grasp of economics, but then became an agent of change, cancelling HS2 of all places in Manchester and announcing a longer-term ban on smoking having just said he wanted to cut government interference in people’s lives. Then in a huge U-turn, in comes Cameron (no change there then…) and a bunch of moderate Tories to the Cabinet having partly given up pandering to the Right of his party. The only policy Sunak has been consistent on is Rwanda, which he doesn’t even believe in, and it has been a disaster. This week, in an interview with the vile Piers Morgan, he even got drawn into a £1000 bet that he would get illegal migrants on a plane to this wonderful place before the next election. What was he thinking of?

Adding insult to injury, on Wednesday, at PMQs, still pursuing culture wars as a dividing line with Labour, Sunak makes a crass joke about transsexuality whilst the mother of the murdered teenager, Brianna, is in the parliamentary building. Oh dear. He should stick to his core economic competencies, ignore the Tory Right (they have nowhere to go this side of an election) and protect his dignity. He is no political tactician and now we all know it.

Hobson’s choice…

Labour’s £28bn U-turn

Subsidising green initiatives has been a huge boost to the US economy. But Labour has now run scared of a similar policy in the UK, which was one of its few differentiating election pledges, cancelling the commitment on Thursday. The party seems to stand for nothing now except not being the Tories. Starmer comes across as believing in very little, has created confusion about what he wants to achieve in government and, frankly, looks shifty. The Tories are in such a dire mess, it probably won’t make any difference come election time. Labour is set for a huge victory, but it bodes ill for its competence in government.

Biden’s cognitive decline

This blog thought he could get away with it. Biden would beat Trump regardless, having actually run (even if by delegation) a competent administration. Trump has his own issues with cognitive decline, and, in a highly polarising election, voters would ultimately rally around Biden in the face of the awful consequences of a second Trump presidency.

Hobson’s choice again…

This may still be the case but just recently Biden has mixed up Mitterrand with Macron, Kohl and Merkel and Ukraine with Iraq. Now, devastatingly, the Special Counsel appointed to examine Biden’s handling of top secret files found he had mishandled them but declined to pursue a legal case on the basis his memory has “significant limitations” and accordingly Biden would present himself “as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory”. In a press conference to dismiss these findings, the outraged Biden subsequently confused the presidents of Mexico and Egypt when asked to comment on the Middle East. Oh dear indeed. Three quarters of voters, whilst being no fans of Trump, have voiced serious concerns about Biden running again. It seems the Democrats are taking a huge gamble with Biden, and it is at the whole world’s expense.

Sunak, Starmer, Biden, Trump? What a choice…

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Advisers dripping poison into the UK’s political system

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Under Blair, we had Alastair Campbell, under Brown we had Damian McBride, under Johnson we had Dominic Cummings, and then Dougie Smith has emerged under everyone from Cameron onwards. Campbell eventually tried to bring down Brown, McBride tried to bring down Blair, Cummings tried to bring down Johnson in cahoots with Smith and now Smith is trying to bring down Sunak.

Confused? Who are these people who wield enormous influence, often patronising and bullying elected politicians including their theoretical masters?

Special Advisers: now a deeply unhealthy part of the UK’s political system

They are political geeks known as Advisers or Special Advisers (SPADs) who normally live in the shadows, wielding power by obsessively plotting on behalf of or against the very people they are employed by. Their role is justified by being political advisers rather than having to follow the civil service code of impartiality. Most have spent their life in politics from a very young age, can do a great job in policy terms whilst remaining unknown to the public. Some are known to the public, have a very high opinion of themselves and actively seek to subvert the democratic process. They have grown in number as senior politicians require and have been allowed to acquire more partial support in grappling with the increasing complexities of government.

The best known, of course, is Alastair Campbell who became Downing Street Press Secretary under Blair, followed by Dominic Cummings, who became Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson. One can argue that despite their deep unpleasantness and undue influence, they had a useful background in journalism or getting Brexit done. But that was never enough when, with ruthless arrogance, they played on and reflected the insecurities of their respective Prime Ministers. Their ends did not justify their means.

Then there is the publicity-shy Dougie Smith who to his horror has just been exposed by the media in his alleged lead role as knifer of Sunak. He started his political career, like several of today’s senior Tories, in the notorious Federation of Conservative Students (FCS) in the 80s, eventually shut down by Norman Tebbit of all people, for extremism. Smith was a radical libertarian who hated and still hates moderate Tories. He was arrested for making death threats against a fellow FCS member and ran swingers parties before becoming a speech writer to Cameron. Either because of, or despite of, being intimidating, even threatening, he has inexplicably been attached to Downing Street for years.

Such individuals should have no role in a healthy, accountable political system. These so called senior special advisers are out of control, wielding huge power free from scrutiny until it is too late. Elected politicians, even Prime Ministers, can live in fear of the most influential ones, monsters they have often created themselves. And, specifically in the case of Dougie Smith? He simply reflects the rot at the heart of today’s Conservative Party.

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Tories in a hole don’t know when to stop digging…

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Things seem to go from bad to worse for the Tories. They are now a stonking 27 per cent behind Labour in the latest YouGov/Times opinion poll with Reform UK on 12 per cent. They are assailed from the Right and Left, and one has to feel for Sunak. The tightrope he walks seems pretty precarious.

Who would have Sunak’s job?

But Sunak, his advisors and his backbenchers just make things worse. The focus on the Rwanda deportation scheme for illegal migrants, for example, is a disaster. Squeezing the Bill through the House of Commons last week finally by a majority of 44 just confirms Sunak’s weakness. It was excruciating to witness the aggressive interventions from some 60 Tory MPs saying the Bill wasn’t strong enough before finally pushing it through. Nobody, least of all the public, think the scheme is going to work despite spending £240 million to date. When the President of Rwanda, seeing his country constantly getting trashed in the media, has had enough you know the game is up. The Bill will go to the House of Lords, get amended, come back to the House of Commons, get passed, and then will be challenged in the courts. It is highly unlikely a single person will be deported to Rwanda this side of the election.

And the bizarre thing is that the government has had some success with illegal migrant channel boat crossings. They are down by a third in the past year but all the noise over Rwanda has hidden this.

Keir Starmer just has to sit back and watch the Tories implode, now helped by another intervention from ex-cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke. Writing in The Telegraph he describes Sunak as “leading the Conservatives into an election where we will be massacred” and urges him to step down. Oh dear indeed.

The only hope for the Tories is that Reform UK’s polling at 12 per cent, which would cost them dozens of seats, is exaggerated. There is some evidence for this but even that won’t save them.

Footnote on Trump

For some time, Trump has been the clear favourite to win the Republican nomination. Whilst the size of his victories in Ohio and New Hampshire is depressing, there is a long way to go before November. Whether Nikki Haley stays in the race or not through to Super Tuesday in March (she will probably get a thrashing in her home state of South Carolina) will provide some insight into Trump’s perceived viability throughout the year. The two issues will be whether Trump is still the candidate by November and whether Biden can still beat him. We are no closer to knowing the answer to these two questions despite the primary events of the last couple of weeks.

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Who will trump Trump?

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

Last week, this blog made a prediction that Trump would not win this year’s US presidential election and may not even be a candidate. Umm… brave or foolhardy? Well, time will tell but yesterday was a big step forward in the presidential race.

Biden and Trump are each other’s best bet…

First, Republican Chris Christie, now a harsh critic of Trump, suspended his presidential campaign. In some ways this doesn’t mean much. He was polling just two per cent amongst the Republican base. His lambasting of Trump would have meant more if he hadn’t had his head up Trump’s fundament when he initially became President in 2016. However, as the list of GOP wannabees dwindles, it allows those opposed to Trump to coalesce around DeSantis (unlikely) or Haley (more likely). In that sense Christie’s trashing of Haley off-camera is probably more meaningful than him stepping out of the race.

Today, it certainly looks as though Trump will be his Party’s nominee, but the contest has a long way to go with exciting legal hurdles ahead. In the meantime, it is curious that Fox News is giving Trump prime airtime, inviting him to friendly on air townhall meetings whilst his fellow contestants are debating elsewhere. The Murdoch’s disparage him in private, Trump has cost them US$1 billion indirectly in damages and most elected Republicans one hears are also extremely rude about Trump in private too.

We shall see. Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times recently eloquently explained why American democracy will survive Trump come what may. I am not so sure… although Congressional elections should stymie Trump’s presidency domestically pretty quickly.

If all that seems pessimistic, then balance these events with further evidence emerging suggesting the Democrat’s electoral prospects, even under Biden, are underestimated. Recent polling by The Washington Post and University of Maryland suggests an overwhelming majority (72 per cent) of Americans are not sympathetic to the January 6th rioters, who Trump wants to pardon, believing convicts either received fair sentences or they were not harsh enough. Add that to the real elections (mid-term Congressional and State ones) where Democrats significantly outperformed expectations, and there is all to play for.

As also mentioned in last week’s blog, Trump is Biden’s best bet and vice versa. It will be a nail-biting year, particularly as there is also the possibility that neither may be a candidate by November. And only America’s democracy and global security is at stake…

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2024 predictions: a momentous year for elections

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For political geeks or those who simply care about democracy, 2024 will be a huge year. More than 2 billion people across 50 countries will go to the polls and the consequences for many will reverberate for a generation. Of course, some of these elections are more free than others.

As one gears up nervously to make predictions for the year ahead, time to review this blog’s predictions for 2023. Not a bad year actually although apologies in advance for Trump…

  • There will be no UK General Election in 2023 – an easy tick
  • Sunak’s style will not quite resonate with the electorate – tick
  • Biden will run again – tick so far…
  • The Ukraine war will last into 2024 – tick
  • China will not invade Taiwan but the threat will rise – an easyish tick
  • Erdogan will win the presidency again in Turkey – tick
  • DeSantis will trump Trump – oops, massive cross

It’s all about elections in 2024…

So here goes, insiderightpolitics’ calculated gut feel:

First, to the UK. Sunak this week sort of confirmed there will be no election until the second half of 2024. Pretty obvious really. The Tories are 18-20 per cent behind in the polls, Sunak has only met one of his five pledges, recent tax cuts will only gradually start to be felt even as the overall tax burden continues to rise and time is needed to announce more. Sunak will want his 2 years as PM before, you heard it here first… the Tories go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation. One keeps hearing that Starmer hasn’t ‘sealed the deal’ and the Tories may make a surprise recovery to at least achieve a hung parliament, but I don’t buy it. Labour will do well in Scotland, the LibDems in the South. Reform UK will pull the rug from the Tories in the ‘Red Wall’. The sheer number of groups who want the Tories out will overwhelm their campaign. It is time for a change and even they know it.

The Tories move further to the Right after the election. Kemi Badenoch is the front-runner currently but there is a long way to go. Expect culture wars to feature and a bit of cozying up to Reform UK. Oh dear. This prediction is a no brainer. Tory moderates are split and simply, well, too moderate. It will take a generation before they find their backbone, and all this assumes there is no change to the electoral system. Rory Stewart once intimated he might lead the Tories in 10 years’ time, but he has also just intimated he would happily serve under Starmer, so no, he won’t.

Trump. This is a brave prediction, but he will not win the presidency and may not even be a candidate. Commentators have consistently underestimated the Democrat’s fortunes, either in the mid-terms or recently in State elections. Polls which put Trump ahead change their tune if he is convicted of anything. His best bet is Biden and Biden’s best bet is Trump. Neither of course may be on the ballot by November (don’t underestimate Trump’s health challenges as well as indictments) but Biden will beat Trump if it comes to that. All bets are off however if it is Biden versus Nikki Haley. She is running a smart campaign whilst DeSantis is running a dumb one.

There are many elections in Europe. Not least EU elections to the European Parliament. The populist Right will make gains notably in France, Italy and Germany but gains will be driven by frustration rather than belief and will not be as extensive as forecast.

Oh, come on, give it to me. Putin will win in Russia and, of course, Modi in India.

On other matters, the war with Ukraine will grind on throughout 2024 but Western resolve will hold up. It is doing wonders (Hungry not withstanding) to Europe’s understanding of the need to wean itself off American protection with their split Congress problems.

This blog avoids analysis of the Middle East – there are many more experts than I – but Netanyahu will not see out the year as Israel’s Prime Minister. His aggressive strategy towards the Palestinians, really all about staying in power, has manifestly failed and his sinister judicial laws rejected by Israel’s Supreme Court. This cat has used up his nine lives, sadly too late for many.

So there you go. A fascinating but scary year ahead. Even those not interested in politics should realise that their futures for years will be shaped by the outcomes of elections in 2024.

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That was the year that was…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Personally, it has been a challenging year with my lovely rescue black Labrador, Norm, nearly crippling me. As I contemplated the importance of quadriceps being attached to kneecaps during four months of immobility and ongoing physio eight months later, it has at least allowed me to put some things in perspective…

Meet Norm; he would say it’s a dog’s life…

The terrible backdrop of events in the Middle East, the ongoing war in Ukraine, the potential resurrection of Trump (it won’t happen by the way but more of that next year…) make you despair about the drivers of human nature. So, as we relax into the festive season, I have reminded myself of some positive news with a little help from http://www.positive.news. It is worth a read on dark days.

2023 saw some major breakthroughs in health. mRNA technology, crucial in combatting Covid, is now driving advances in treatment for a host of illnesses, including eradicating certain types of cancer. 3D printing and the power of AI will hugely speed up drug discoveries with development times falling from decades to just c 3 years. There is now a clear pathway for ending Aids transmission by 2030, and the approval of a new malaria drug could save thousands of lives annually, many of them children. Finally, there is now real optimism for a new generation of treatments for Alzheimer’s.

On climate change, each COP gathering shows some teeth in combatting global warming, this year even when held in the oil rich United Arab Emirates. An explicit statement about transitioning away from fossil fuels was agreed, and climate reparations became a reality with the launch of a loss and damage fund. Even China’s emissions are forecast to start falling in 2024. Nobody benefits from climate change, even the most competitive of global superpowers.

In Brazil, there has been a huge turnaround in reducing deforestation now the vile President Bolsonaro has gone, and whilst the list of endangered species continued to grow, several species stepped back from extinction. The golden lion tamarin in Brazil, the scimitar-horned oryx in Chad, tigers on the rise in India and Nepal, golden eagles soaring in Scotland and blue whales returning to the waters off Seychelles. Finally, under the auspices of the UN, after 20 years of negotiation, 200 nations signed a legally binding agreement in September to protect 30% of oceans outside national boundaries.

Lastly on basic human rights, as some parts of the world go crazy, notably Russia, barriers were broken down to same-sex partnerships in Nepal, Latvia, Peru and South Korea. More work needed in Africa though…

So, 2023 was not all bad and let’s hope that continues into 2024 with three quarters of the democratic world facing elections. Norm and I will be watching events closely with predictions shared in January. Obviously, the correct ones will come from me and the bad calls from Norm. It’s a dog’s life…

Merry Christmas!

The politics of Julius Caesar…

~ Julian Samways ~ 4 Comments

There is a brilliant documentary on BBC iPlayer currently; ‘Julius Caesar, The Making of a Dictator’. Thoroughly recommended. It charts the path of Caesar to power and then absolute power. Firebrand populism to whip up the mob, tenacity, charisma, a brilliant propagandist, skillful at building unholy political alliances, hidden and not so hidden thuggery, a disrespect for institutions and their constraints on power, and then, finally, tyranny. Of course, it all ends in tears five years later in mid-March 44 BC… but the damage was done. The Roman Empire was ruled by dictators for hundreds of years with most vestiges of democracy withering on the vine.

The rise of Julius Caesar could teach us a thing or two…

Remind you of anything?

Western democracy is starting to feel under threat again. Complacent voters disillusioned with the democratic norms of over-promising politicians who under-deliver, are in revolt. There is the incredible but highly possible resurrection of Trump in the US and the rise of the far-right across much of Europe, already running governments in Hungary and Italy but not in Poland thank goodness. The broader Republican Party in the US is tempted to abandon Ukraine and Putin is banking more generally on the West giving up. Looking further afield, Modi in India, (still trading with Russia), is starting to dismantle checks and balances in their democracy.

A commentator on Sky News rather depressingly summed it up this week. Paraphrasing him, he spoke of many power brokers in the US as well as elsewhere who would like the world run by the three Caesars of Trump, Xi and Putin. Democratic norms would continue to disappear as voters were bought off with manipulated expectations. Corrupt elites would rule uninterrupted.

The optimist says that the above will not happen. That voters will wake up in time. That populists in Western democracies to date have largely been grossly incompetent; Trump and Johnson for example… But what happens if they are not incompetent or, in Trump’s case, had powerful allies who would use him as the proverbial Trojan Horse. Think of the damage that could be done with democratic institutions permanently undermined, climate change initiatives reversed, Putin winning a partial victory in Ukraine and further Chinese hegemony.

2024 will be a pivotal year. It may be a good one or not, but like politics in ancient Rome, we had better be on our guard…