Snap UK election could mean a smoother Brexit

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, today called a General Election for 8 June. She will have to negotiate around the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which prohibits early General Elections without a two thirds majority.

However, as Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party Opposition Leader, has already welcomed the election, this shouldn’t be a problem.

So what are the implications of this Election? Obviously, short term uncertainty and a media agenda which will be further dominated by political concerns. Longer term, however, this is likely to strengthen the Prime Minister’s hand and ironically that of the soft Brexiteers which is good for the Financial Services sector generally.

If, as the current opinion polls suggest (Conservative lead of 9-23%, weak Labour leadership etc), the Conservatives win the election, Theresa May will have a stronger hand in confronting the Hard Brexiteers in her own party, negotiating terms much more amenable to a smoother exit.

The pro-European Liberal Democrats are also likely to gain seats and the weak Labour Leader will subsequently be replaced most likely by a stronger and more pro-European candidate offering stronger opposition. The Scottish National Party north of the Border may do well but so might the Conservatives too from a rock bottom base. The UK Independence Party are hugely diminished. So, all in all, on balance, good news for Remain/soft Brexit supporters.

Coming hot on the heels of the general election in the Netherlands and the first round of the French election due this coming weekend, clearly today’s decision simply adds another level of complexity to the European project.

From a communications perspective, it will be interesting to see the manifesto promises and debates from each party over the coming weeks, and whether this may present any challenges – or indeed opportunities – for investment firms.

Longer term analysis of what this all means for Britain and its future can only be seriously considered once the election has taken place but even in these turbulent times, this – at least for now – seems one of the more predictable elections in terms of the likely result.