Unprecedented times but Johnson has the initiative…for now

How could he? The whole Brexit premise was founded on ‘take back control’ and restoration of parliamentary sovereignty and what does Johnson do? He and his supplicant ministers agree to suspend parliament for fear of being forced into an about turn on a no deal Brexit. Parliamentary democracy crushed temporarily in one fell swoop. Shocking in its brutality.

Responses confirm this and we now have a country at war with itself politically. In addition to the predictable howls of anger from the opposition parties, the Speaker, John Bercow, and Lord Heseltine, the former Tory Deputy PM, call it a ‘constitutional outrage’; John Major, the former Tory PM, seeks advice on the legality of this action to prorogue parliament; Philip Hammond, the Chancellor in Theresa May’s government, calls it ‘profoundly undemocratic’ and Dominic Grieve, the former Tory Attorney General, is ‘working like wildfire’ to block the government’s move.

The lunatics are in charge of the Tory asylum and, if there was no doubt, the fantastic leader of the Scottish Tories, Ruth Davidson, is quitting. She rejuvenated the Party north of the border with a punchy, down to earth, moderate version of Toryism. She has been rewarded by being sidelined. Davidson will probably cite personal as well as political reasons for departing but we suspect the real reason. She cannot stomach the direction of her Party.

And yet Johnson may win his battle. His determination to achieve the goal of leaving the EU at any cost by 31st October is a wonder to behold. He has deliberately ensured he has no other option. It is ‘do or die’ and the power of incumbency is finally being exercised effectively. But it is a Corbynite Labour Party in particular, and a fractious, mediocre opposition in general, who are his greatest allies. Together, they are not a credible alternative government with no reassuring consensus on how to manage the current Brexit impasse.

The country just wants Brexit done and, in frustration, may temporarily shut its eyes to the longer-term consequences of a disastrous EU departure and the trashing of our unwritten constitution. With an additional sweetener of a spending splurge on police, the NHS and education, Johnson may just rush first over the finishing line in the almost certain imminent General Election. He has seized the initiative.

And yet… Johnson’s strategy is incredibly high risk and unexpected events could easily derail his plans. The departure of Ruth Davidson is the first of these and has started to change the odds on a General Election victory. It is a bitter blow. Can the Tories really win an election with resurgent Liberal Democrats taking southern seats and the post Davidson Party now to be humiliated in Scotland? We could be talking about a loss of 70 seats.

The longer-term price of Johnson’s actions is huge, not least, as I have written before, the destruction of the Conservative Party as we know it. But these issues are for another day. Let’s hope Johnson’s fortunes deteriorate and he receives a bloody nose for his cavalier actions in the coming weeks. The country will not regret it.

Two ways to block a Johnson Brexit

Back from holiday to find Johnson running rampant. A joy! He has the initiative and is making the most of it. This Tory revolutionary, fuelled by Dominic Cummings, is sprinting to the Brexit finish line knowing that departure on 31st October is what predominantly defines him. But he has been active in other areas too: more police on the beat; more money for NHS building works; more jails; more stop and search; more populism generally.

This signals an imminent General Election. Johnson can’t govern without leaving the EU, and he can’t allow Parliament and the best endeavours of the former Tory Chancellor to stop him. He also can’t govern with a majority of one and he can’t govern without his own mandate. He is openly goading the EU, the Opposition and journalists to dare him to call an election. They are falling into his trap nicely. He sees a window of opportunity now to see off the Brexit Party and to see off Labour, led by Corbyn, all before the disaster of a no-deal Brexit bites. On current showing he may well win and the Tory Party as we know it, along with the fortunes of the country, will be destroyed in the process. Hey ho. Who cares as long as Johnson and his vanity project continues.

But…but…there are two ways to block this British version of Trump:

Dump Corbyn

Labour are disastrously led. Their finest MPs languish on the backbenches, refusing to serve under him. The Party equivocates over Brexit, is mired in anti-Semitism allegations, and can’t even align its stance on a second Scottish independence referendum with the leader of the Scottish Labour Party. 45,000 members have departed in the past year. Corbyn is extreme, tired and useless. Johnson is running rings round him. But imagine if he departs to be replaced by Keir Starmer, say. All the above would be reversed. The Tories would panic as Labour fortunes are revived and all bets would be off on a snap Tory General Election victory.

The Liberal Democrats can’t just be about Brexit

The Lib Dem focus on Remain has been admirable and has helped restore their fortunes. But it is not enough. Even Johnson realises he can’t rely simply on the Brexit debate to propel him to election victory. The Lib Dems need coherent economic policies that are business and voter friendly and they need them fast. They need clearly articulated stances on the NHS, social care, law and order. They need a centrist philosophy that preserves the best of the former Tory/Lib Dem alliance; which stops them being portrayed as allies of the Left and the loony tunes, for example, coming out of the Green Party.

Of course the above is unlikely to happen. Labour has a long history of sticking with losing leaders and Corbyn has entrenched his uniquely awful, second rate Marxism, in the Party hierarchy (ex his MPs). The Lib Dems probably don’t have the time to flesh out new policies under a new leader in the face of a snap election or, if they do, may not have the appetite to fill the centre ground satisfactorily.

I hope I am proven wrong but today, with a very, very heavy heart, it seems Johnson may prevail.