Competence Beats Idealism

The manifesto read well. It was bold, radical even, with policies that might appeal to much of the electorate. And then I read the words ‘Labour Party’ and at that moment you knew it was doomed to failure….Memories can be selective, so whatever the shortcomings of state ownership, policies that nationalise rail, water companies and soak the rich in today’s climate of frustration strike a chord. However, we are also in a period of immense challenge as we seek to leave the EU and only a minority would entrust the next few years to the current Labour leadership. It is simply not up to the task. The individuals on the whole are poor quality, divided and often ideologically highly unpleasant. Hopelessly split on their response to Europe, they lack credibility on this overarching issue alone, without adding responsibility for a larger State on top.

And now to the Conservative Party, or should I say Theresa’s Team. With solid competence the front bench led by her largely look the part. The manifesto was a major upgrade on the short-term populism of Cameron, yet in many ways felt low key. It seeks constructive solutions to long term care, casts a baleful eye on free markets to make sure capitalism thinks more carefully about all stakeholders, and starts to reverse a disproportionate share of wealth going to the older generation, regardless of how much money they have, at the expense of the young. And on Europe, whilst a hard Brexit would be a disaster, I can already see room within a tough, competent approach for making gradual concessions on exit bills to be paid and the length of transition period.

As for the other parties. Oh dear. UKIP are a busted flush. The SNP may have been out-manoeuvred. And what happened to the Liberal Democrats? One surprise of this election is that the Remainers do not see them as their last hope. Their leader appears somewhat lightweight and the failure to rise in the polls again seems a victory for competence over idealism.

Manifestos are irrelevant and the Conservative Party is the only game in town. In the long run this is not good for either politics generally, or the Conservative Party in particular, but it feels right for now.

Macron and the UK

A collective sigh of relief could be heard across Europe as Macron’s clear victory was announced. With Angela Merkel quietly accumulating regional victories in Saarland and now Schleswig-Holstein she should be a shoe-in in Germany in September and with Renzi’s comeback in Italy it is quite like old times…well no. Marine Le Pen doubled her father’s 2002 vote and will focus on 2022 whilst Britain is leaving Europe. The Five Star Movement in Italy is strong and populism remains a powerful force. If Europe falls back into complacency, it will only have itself to blame if its future deteriorates further. President Macron is simply a breathing space.

For the UK, it is said Europe wants a strong Theresa May to negotiate with and so should we want a strong Europe. A new French President with real influence and a clear commitment to raising Europe’s game is in Britain’s interest. With a clarity of purpose and sharp red lines on both sides, Brexit negotiations may not take less time but they will be cleaner and this is what Macron’s victory brings.

It was pointed out to me by a senior Conservative source that there is no such thing as a hard or soft Brexit – it is a pointless distinction. There can be no compromise on freedom of movement from both sides so we are leaving the single market full stop. If the Conservatives are returned with a large majority, however, the Prime Minister will have much more room for manoeuvre on the length of transition and exit bills to be paid aided with some irony by a rejuvenated French, German axis. These diminished ambitions is what a soft Brexit now means