It won’t be sleaze that brings down Johnson in the end. As written many times in the past, sadly that is ‘priced-in’. The clumsy ‘sex and favours’ story about Jennifer Arcuri, for example, in this weekend’s Observer was hardly a surprise and offered no new revelations.

But what will?

Essentially a combination of three things; the economy through a deterioration in living standards, a Labour revival, and a collapse in relations with his backbenchers.

Taking these in reverse order, the latter is well on its way to being fulfilled. The hanging out to dry of lemming like MPs (ex 51 of them) as they voted to re-write parliamentary standards rules and rescue Owen Paterson, only to be metaphorically slapped in the face as the government u-turned, has caused huge resentment. The finances of (mostly Tory) MPs are now being heavily scrutinised as criticism of second jobs in local and national media mounts. They are all being tarred with the same brush and several MPs I have spoken to are absolutely hopping mad. This needn’t have happened.

Johnson is not popular amongst fellow parliamentary colleagues. He is seen as chaotic and amoral. On spending, he is not even viewed as a Tory. He had better keep being seen by those colleagues as an election winner…

On the second issue, a Labour revival is probably as far away as ever. Yes, they have suddenly moved into an opinion poll lead, but the recovery is weak. The problems of ineffective leadership and lack of attractive, believable policies are still there and the threat of Labour offering a competitive challenge ahead of the next General Election still seems pretty unlikely.

So, lastly to the third ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ issue. The jury is out. It is too early to say. A hopefully post Covid recovery is still underway and there is plenty of talk of ‘levelling up’ backed by decent amounts of cash. But if reality in the North falls short of expectations, standards of living are undermined by inflation and tax rises and Brexit related shortages bite, then the public mood could change very quickly.

For Johnson personally lights are flashing amber. Only one of those three issues has crystallised. It will take at least two for him to be under real threat. He is still likely to lead the Tories into and win a 2023 General Election (if it is delayed until 2024 then it signals a lack of confidence of victory), but the odds have narrowed somewhat.

Johnson’s real problem is his backbenchers. For a man who ‘likes to be liked’ he has made himself very unpopular indeed and that is not going to change any time soon. The economy and Labour had better continue to ‘deliver’ in his favour…

There was a book launch on Monday night at the unlikely venue of The Magic Mike Live Theatre in the Hippodrome Casino with the author, Sir Richard Needham.

Who is Sir Richard Needham you might ask? He is an obscure former Member of Parliament who was Under-Secretary of State for Northern Ireland and Minister of State for Trade in John Major’s government. His book, ‘One Man, Two Worlds’ and certainly worth a read contains sharply observed reminiscences of a businessman in politics, but its contents are not the subject of this blog.

It was the event and those attending it that immediately impressed. Some 200 were present including former cabinet ministers and a few currently in parliament. Quite a crowd and an appreciative one at that. The evening was a talk about past, ‘Blue Chip’ political careers featuring, of course, Richard Needham, but also Chris Patten (former Cabinet Minister and Governor of Hong Kong) and Matthew Parris (former Member of Parliament and leading political commentator). It never dragged over an hour and a half.

The content was fascinating, covering their motivations for pursuing a political career, mistakes and accomplishments during demanding decades in the public eye and the toll it took on their families. There was a focus on the purpose of being in politics, what you sought to achieve in an often-non-ideological way, avoiding confrontation whenever possible in a desire to bring people together to get things done.

Sir Richard spoke movingly about how badly Northern Ireland has been treated by the mainland over decades, how he sought to bring communities together by eschewing division and how damaging Boris Johnson’s approach to Brexit has been for the province. Catholics and Protestants are once again drifting apart not helped by an education system that at all levels still remains almost wholly segregated.

Chris Patten discussed his wrestles with the poll tax when in government and how China, even for the most cynical, has surprised on the downside in its treatment of Hong Kong. Matthew Parris discussed his keenness to become a Member of Parliament and his equal keenness to leave parliament seven years later, believing he could influence events more feely as a political journalist. All three referenced the palpable decency of John Major as Prime Minister.

What did the speakers at their core have in common? Honesty, principle and ability. And it is here that they, and many of the audience, parted company with today’s Tory Party. Diplomacy ruled but by defining what they were not, Needham, Patten and Parris intimated a quiet despair at the motives and behaviour of those in government today. Clearly and precisely, they put space between themselves and the overall approach of Johnson’s regime. And who could blame them.