Matthew Parris was absolutely right in his article in last Saturday’s Times. Only job losses will shift public opinion on Brexit. The two sides of the EU argument are too entrenched for anything else to work.

This was brought home by Saturday’s pro-EU march. It simply passed most people by, hardly worth a significant mention in Sunday’s papers. People are bored and even as a passionate Remainer I felt strangely unmoved. It will have had as much impact as the one million marching against the Iraq war and we all know what happened next. So, as Matthew Parris wrote, it will be events outside politics that will break the deadlock.

And those events may well be the actions of business. Senior executives, provoked into going public by the stupidity of several cabinet ministers, are raising their heads and this could just be the catalyst for the change needed. Airbus first (may pull out of the UK on a no deal scenario), then BMW (8,000 jobs potentially at risk if no agreed customs arrangements) warned of the damage caused if there is no compromise on our trading relationship with Europe. Yesterday, it was announced investment in new cars and plants fell almost 50% in H1 2018 versus the same period last year as investment plans are put on hold. There are some 850,000 jobs relying on our car industry.

And there will be more to come. Economists, even pro-Brexit ones, are highlighting the short term damage to Britain’s economy of Brexit induced uncertainty with forecasting models estimating that the slowdown under way is now costing some £450m a week. So much for the Brexit dividend paying for the NHS…

When Liam Fox was questioned last year on the loss of up to 10,000 City jobs as a result of leaving Europe, he was dismissive describing it as less than expected. He should be forced to meet personally those who lose their livelihoods as a result of Brexit and see how his neo-con, anti-EU ideology resonates with them. We then have our esteemed Foreign Secretary overheard saying F**k business. Well business may just F**k him and it is time it did.

Business groups are coordinating their warnings as frustration mounts at the government’s overall lack of direction, lack of commitment to a frictionless customs arrangement and an insultingly cavalier attitude to potential job losses. Speaking to chief executives yesterday, Theresa May attempted to reassure them of her intentions but why this constant brinkmanship? Companies have had enough of ideologically driven, chaotic EU negotiations.

I have an idea. Like the clock in New York recording the increase in government debt second by second, we should erect a clock in Trafalgar Square recording Brexit induced job losses. It is always the economy stupid, and like a slowly boiling frog the UK must wake up to the cumulative damage of our approach to Brexit before it is too late. Perhaps such an initiative will highlight the actions of business sufficiently to put it in control of a process that politicians have no idea or desire to manage.

The Tories have a good story to tell. Sensible stewardship of the economy has allowed further expenditure on the NHS which was crying out for a longer-term funding settlement. All predicated, of course, on finding further efficiencies to ensure every penny counts.

Great news then.

Well, no. The announcement was launched on a Sunday with the explanation that we were benefitting from a Brexit dividend. What was Theresa May thinking? Why dignify the Boris Johnson’s of this world with the claim of a weekly £350m windfall for the NHS post leaving the EU?

It is a manifest untruth. Let’s run through the finances:

• All official forecasts confirm Brexit worsens rather than improves public finances
• In particular, the Office for Budget Responsibility (the OBR – the government’s official forecaster) expects Brexit induced slower economic growth will cost £15 billion in lost tax revenues in 2020/21 alone
• Due to the EU divorce settlement, the UK will be paying contributions for years with only an extra £5.8 billion available to spend elsewhere by 2022/23
• Even the sum of £5.8 billion is an exaggeration as withdrawing from the EU will require us to replace EU spending – £3 billion on agriculture for example

The Government quickly became a laughing stock and the debate has moved to which taxes will have to rise to fund the announcement. What a mess. The only hope – a valid one – is that the public cease to care where the money comes from as long as it is spent. The immediate polls, however, confirm they saw the untruth a mile away.

Why did this happen? The argument goes that Theresa May was flattering the Brexiteers in advance of an imminent series of humiliating compromises to be made on the terms of leaving the EU. Plausible – it would explain the rushed announcement – but has politics really come to this? Can a Tory Government spending an average 3.4% more on our beloved NHS over 5 years at the same time look like a fool?

The fact that several pro-Brexit commentators are still supporting the Brexit dividend argument simply confirms the toxic, misleading nature of today’s politics. This week, we still have Dominic Grieve’s amendment to be debated in the Commons giving the full House a ‘meaningful vote’ on any EU exit deal. Bring it on…

To paraphrase Winston Churchill a little, talking to your enemies is always better than walking away from them. It avoids a path to potential war, war.

In this respect, though it is painful to admit it, Donald J. Trump was right to meet Kim Jong-un. Whilst previous North Korean regimes have used talks to buy time amid empty promises, today a face to face meeting may breed a little understanding under the scrutiny of a penetrating 24 hour media. What must be particularly appealing to the North Koreans in an atmosphere of at least temporary mutual respect is access to the economic regeneration available from a globalised economy. The prospect of those condos on a North Korean beach might just appeal…

But inconsistency reigns. Trump’s warmth to Kim Jong-un, ultimately a murderous, psychopathic dictator who is apparently ‘very talented’ (at torture?), was in sharp contrast to his treatment of his democratically elected G7 allies. A trade war founded on false statistics is no way to conduct foreign policy. Trump’s show of disrespect to Trudeau as he walked, walked away from the Quebec G7 summit early was appalling.

Likewise Trump has taken a different tack on Iran. Walking away from the Iran nuclear deal wrong-footed his allies. He was deaf to their entreaties. The excuse given for the contrasting approach of praising Kim Jong-un whilst demonising Iran was that Iran can be deterred from building nuclear weapons by threats whilst North Korea needs to be coaxed away from ones they already have by baubles. But there is no discernible benefit to the US in this analysis. The Middle East is a much more complex region with far more to be gained from a civilised Iran. To have a chance of Middle East peace succeeding, the West needs to talk to Iran and in a coordinated fashion. The Iran nuclear deal was a really logical start.

Trump is basking in record Republican levels of satisfaction. At the same time, with his wild foreign policy inconsistencies, he is ultimately Making America Small Again on the world stage.

What a shame then, in pursuing this theme, the UK is walking away from the EU. For all its faults and disagreements the EU allowed a common purpose to develop amongst formerly warring nations. It has introduced common values across the continent and tackled many major issues requiring cross-border solutions. Where it has failed, it provides a forum for future resolution. The UK would have been a huge contributor.

The same analysis can be applied to the UN. All countries stay and talk despite its manifest flaws. In respect to the EU, however, the UK has walked, walked not talked, talked. As a consequence, we will be a much diminished country.

The BBC has just undertaken an extensive survey to discover the extent to which people are proud to be English. No great surprise in finding out the highest levels of pride reside with those who voted Brexit and the old. 72% of people over 65 were proud to be English compared to 45% of 18-24s. Just over half (52%) of Leave voters back an English Parliament whilst the figure drops to 32% for those who voted Remain. The cities are more wary of English pride and, again unsurprisingly, levels of pride fall the closer you get to London.

But interestingly, 80% of English residents identify with being both British and English although identity in being British resonates most strongly with those in London, ethnic minorities generally and the young.

So how can we capture these characteristics positively, particularly what it means to be British? This has never been more important as we leave the EU and probably the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. To remain liberal in our instincts and outward looking in our approach, let alone maintaining a United Kingdom, confidence in our identity is crucial.

Now is the time to begin a debate about a written constitution. Politicians mostly avoid this, placing it in the ‘too difficult, no consensus, no votes in it’ box. But it is different now.

We have abortion and gay marriage in Northern Ireland and the ailing House of Lords, ripe for reform, to name but a few issues dominating the airwaves at the moment. Then there is the whole debate surrounding the merits of a multi-cultural society, perceived as a threat which drove many to vote Brexit. In an age of devolution with Scottish and now English nationalism also on the rise, defining being British is more urgent than ever.

A written constitution which outlines our basic rights and values and encompasses House of Lords reform could be a unifying force not one of division. It may be the one advantage from leaving the EU which rejuvenates the UK. Of course, it would take brave, principled politicians to start the debate. Umm…back to the drawing board…