There was a programme on Radio Four earlier this week concerned about whether media coverage of the cost of living crisis, strikes, NHS meltdown, Ukraine, climate change etc was depressing the nation in its relentless negativity. Was it causing a spiral of misery? Such unprecedented self-awareness!

It certainly feels so. Many I know simply can’t face the news as reported and are turning their back on it. Nobody wants the varnished truth but are we undermining our ability to cope by ignoring some of the positives around us?

Time to smile?

Well I dug around, searching for some good news to finish the year amidst the gloom and there is a surprising amount, some of it in full view. So here we go…

First, an easy one. Protecting the planet. On Monday, at COP15, 23 targets were agreed by 195 counties and the EU to ensure 30% of land, rivers and sea globally are in protected areas by 2030. Harmful farming subsidies will be reformed/phased out, risks of pesticides will be halved, rich countries will transfer US$30 billion to poorer ones for biodiversity protection. If not perfect, it is a huge step forward.

Second. Health. Longevity globally has risen from 53 in 1960 to 73 this year, up a year since 2021 despite Covid. 80% of children by the age of one will have been inoculated against at least one disease. There has been the first significant breakthrough in a search for curing Alzheimer’s and then all that progress on vaccine technology driven by Covid.

Third, closer to home. UK politics. Whatever your views, we have the most competent PM since at least Cameron (pre-Brexit referendum) faced by a viable Opposition. Sunak is economically literate, understanding the need for a solution to the craziness, for example, of having record vacancies whilst 13%, of the workforce is on some form of out-of-work benefits. Inflation will head down towards 3% next year with interest rates following according to most forecasts. Strikes really will get resolved because they have to and, internationally, we are rebuilding relationships with key allies. Come on, things will be better than this year!

We can also talk through the failure of Russia to take Ukraine although at immense cost and a possible Russian retreat/ defeat next year. The West has held its nerve in supporting Ukraine comprehensively despite the pessimists saying otherwise. We are witnessing the almost certain demise of Trump’s malign political influence and, oh yes, in science, a real breakthrough on the way to achieving nuclear fusion.

Lastly, a final point to leave you with. Numerous studies show optimists live considerably longer than pessimists. So turn off the news, stay positive and enjoy the festive break. It’s good for you… apparently…

Merry Christmas 🙂

We are in for a miserable winter. The first decent post Covid run-up to Christmas is being marred by growing industrial strife. If you add all the groups together it feels we are almost in general strike territory.

A winter of strife…

Nurses want 19%, Border Force guards have just announced airport walkouts to support demands for a 10% pay rise. The RMT, having been offered 8% over two years with no compulsory redundancies (but more efficient working practices), announced a slew of Christmas strikes. The Royal Mail are striking, ambulance staff are joining picket lines and teachers have walked out in Scotland. The list goes on. There is talk of the army taking over crucial services to stop potential disasters in essential services.

Christmas party cancellations alone, due to strikes, have almost hit Covid levels wiping £1.5 billion off hospitality revenues.

The Government calculates that to cave in to all these demands would cost north of £28 billion, fuelling further inflation and then further pay demands. It is a legitimate warning as this is exactly how high inflation becomes embedded in economies.

We are, of course, facing an unprecedented cost of living squeeze and many of the pay demands have some legitimacy, being the legacy from over-enthusiastic austerity measures. However, those in the public sector kept their jobs during Covid when many workers in the private sector ultimately lost theirs or took significant pay cuts. Many founders of small businesses, in the hospitality sector for example, lost life savings. Then public sector pensions are often more generous than in the private sector. Comparisons on pay require more detailed analysis than simply average/median salary statistics.

Unsurprisingly, polls show public support for striking nurses but not rail workers any more now the scale of Christmas disruption is apparent. One poll even suggests the public is happy to make transport strikes illegal.

Rishi Sunak talks about legislation to curb strikes in key public services but there is not much detail, and he does appear somewhat enfeebled in such a fractious Tory Party. The Labour Party equivocates and some of their MPs have joined picket lines despite opposition from Starmer.

On balance, all this disruption probably adds to a sense of Tory inspired chaos after a turbulent few months for the Government. The Tories will probably get the blame from voters for a country seemingly heading in the wrong direction. Many voters will feel they should be sorting things out in a spirit of compromise.

However, polls also show industrial unrest is at least galvanising core Tory and some floating voters. Frustratingly, it seems a sad reflection of 12 years of Tory rule that strikes may be the best thing going for the Government at the moment.

A long, long time ago, the 1992 General Election actually, I was a young Conservative Parliamentary Candidate standing in a slightly marginal Labour held seat in SE London. I didn’t actually want to be an MP, just putting a marker down for the future. It seemed a fairly safe bet I wouldn’t be elected. Thatcher had been defenestrated, Major was untested and after 13 years of divisive Tory rule, Labour were riding high.

Well, the Conservative Party against all expectations, won. I lost but not, gulp, by much. Tories, in focusing on the economy and voter concerns about the quality of the Labour leader, Neil Kinnock, were given another turbulent five years.

Fast forward to 1997, and a hopelessly divided Conservative Party, practically ungovernable, was wiped out by the charismatic Tony Blair.

Changing fortunes in the 1990s…

On this spectrum, where are we today? Well, the Tories are ungovernable, divided on everything from Europe (again!) to immigration and house building targets to name but a few issues. If it wasn’t so serious, with almost comic timing, they are on their fifth leader in six years. Sunak is the new competent, technocratic PM, but has little authority over a party riven by factions.

Labour are 25% ahead in the polls and have just walked the Chester by-election. It looks game over for the Tories. Tory MPs have to confirm whether they are standing again by fifth December, and several are voting with their feet and going including some in their 30s and 40s.

And yet, and yet…the Tories have drawn level again on the economy in some polls despite the disaster of Truss’s short reign and doubts still remain about what Keir Starmer stands for.

On balance, it feels more like 1997 than 1992 simply because the Tories have made such a mess of things. Sunak has come along too late to be their saviour and the Conservative Party internally is in a terrible state. The wider front bench of the Labour Party appears competent and Starmer has more gravitas than Kinnock could ever muster.

But doubts still persist about the outcome of the General Election likely to be in 2024. Labour have to win an incredible 124 seats to gain an overall majority. It may come as a surprise to many, but it is not quite game over for the Tories.