The focus has been on Tory ideological recklessness and Labour’s hopeless confusion over Brexit.

But in doing so we have overlooked the ambitions of the LibDems and the SNP. They are politicians after all, and their hubris has just got the better of them. Believing their electoral moment has come to maximise parliamentary gains they are acquiescing to Johnson’s demand for a December election. Admittedly there may be some compromise on the date; earlier in the week of the 9th to help capture Remain leaning university students before they head home for Christmas…but it is an early General Election, nevertheless. And Labour, in supporting the move, have now been dragged into the morass.

Remain supporting parties will indeed make gains, possibly significant ones, but the real momentum is with Johnson. He has been convincing in his desire for Brexit by end October and articulate in accusing Parliament of thwarting the ‘Will of the People’. He has an attractive agenda outside Brexit, aimed at winning over frustrated Labour voters who supported Leave. He has the money, a sophisticated social media presence and the charisma to win. Most importantly of all he has Corbyn; hopeless, extreme and confused. Most moderate voters of all persuasions and none simply can’t contemplate a Corbyn led Labour government.

It is a huge gamble by Johnson of course to abandon his Withdrawal Agreement ahead of an election but he has nowhere else to go. He can’t continue to languish in government but not in power; he can’t see his Withdrawal Agreement eviscerated during weeks of parliamentary debate; he can’t pass a vote of No Confidence in himself and lose what little influence he has over parliament (Salvini in Italy learnt this too late); most importantly he can’t risk Corbyn being replaced by a moderate Labour leader.

The odds are steep but it is now or never; ‘do or die’. The Tories could lose seats in Scotland and seats in the South East. Johnson could start 30 seats further behind, betting on Labour collapsing and the Brexit Party becoming a busted flush. A tall order but not by any means impossible.

And there is one final prize if he wins the General Election. He will deliver the hardest of Brexits. In tearing up Theresa May’s agreements to match European rules and regulations in key economic areas, he could well lead the UK to a post transition exit from the EU on WTO terms only. The purity of Johnson’s approach as we become a small, deregulated, free market island floating off the coast of Europe is enough to make the hearts of the hard-right Tory European Research Group (‘ERG’) soar.

So in their ambition to gain a stronger foothold in parliament (and for the SNP, another convincing go at Independence), this is the opportunity the LibDems and the SNP with Labour’s support have today presented to the Tory government.

The upside; a humbled Tory Party who, with no overall majority, regrets the experiment of Johnson as PM, and reverts back to the centre ground as a second Referendum and General Election beckons. The downside; a rampant Johnson led Tory government which crushes the Opposition and embraces a pure approach to Brexit; Trumpite in its embrace of alternative Right characteristics and willing to risk the breakup of the Union as a price worth paying.

Not worth the gamble it seems but it will be taken later today.

Very little on Brexit this week. Anything could happen after Parliament rejected a straight yes/no motion on Johnson’s deal on Saturday, passed it as a Bill on Tuesday but not the Government’s proposed 3 day timetable. This means the UK almost certainly can’t leave the EU by end October as the ‘do or die’ Johnson promised. These are shrewd tactics by key Remainers. They can’t be blamed for blocking the deal but just want more time to scrutinize it. And what is wrong with that since it is apparently the largest piece of legislation to be presented to Parliament in 50 years?

The Government appeared distraught as scrutiny of the Bill over the coming weeks could lead to all sorts of amendments. Another messy period ahead with a Brexit election sometime before 31 January being the most likely outcome. It won’t be pretty.

But over to America where politics is equally poisonous. My trip there last week coincided with a rough time for Trump. The impeachment process over allegations of tying military aid to Ukraine with an investigation by the Ukrainian authorities into the activities of Joe Biden’s son is starting to appear genuinely threatening to Trump. Revelations came thick and fast all week. He is a man who looks under pressure. Good!

Since my return, damaging evidence continues to accumulate. The top US diplomat in Ukraine, William B. Taylor Jr., on Tuesday alleged that Trump held up vital security aid for the country until Ukraine’s leader agreed to make a public pronouncement pledging to investigate Trump’s political rivals. This is from an ‘unimpeachable’ source and is perhaps the most dramatic yet.

The Democrats have been clever in pursuing the impeachment process in private but with key parts of testimonies being leaked. It allows for no partisan grandstanding whilst the most damaging revelations become public, enraging Trump who looks impotent. A majority of voters now think Trump should be impeached. Only the Senate will save him.

But the Republicans in the Senate are outraged at Trump’s policy over Syria in abandoning the loyal Kurds to the fate of Turkey’s President Erdogan. As Turkey invaded Syria to create a ‘safe zone’ free of Kurds near their southern border, guess who embraced Erdogan. No other than President Putin, who hosted a six hour summit on how they, and other regional players, will divide control over Syria. In a victory for Putin, Russian and Turkish troops will take control of a vast swathe of Kurdish controlled northern Syria, establishing Putin as the dominant power in the region.

Admittedly, it started with errors by Obama’s administration, but Trump is now overseeing the withering of America’s influence over the Middle East at a faster pace than ever. Combined with retreating from commitments to the UN, his well-known hostility to the EU and NATO, and an embrace of dictators such as Kim Jong Un, America’s foreign policies are a disaster. The US has also ceded ground across Africa to China with the latter pumping $90 billion into the region in 2018 alone. Add that to China’s investment into its new Silk Road and America’s growing capitulation is complete.

In some ways the election of Trump is understandable by a nation which has sunk some $6 trillion into pointless Middle East wars whilst median wages back home have stagnated, and inequality of wealth has soared. But Trump is making things much worse. Pulling back from global commitments and abandoning allies, whilst back at home funnelling tax cuts to the rich, is a sure way of ceding world super-power status quicker than ever to China. Other countries will follow over time. My experience in the US was to witness a country profoundly ill at ease with itself as the consequences of Trump’s actions to those outside his immediate core base become increasingly evident.

They say politics in the UK and US are a mirror image of each other. As the UK eventually leaves the EU and the US abandons the world stage, this is true. Divisiveness rules. In the process it is making America small again and the UK even tinier on its own than it was before.

First, Brexit seems really boring and unfathomable from here so no updated views on Johnson’s mooted shabby deal until after Saturday…

I am sat in a hotel in New York watching US politics unfold on television. It is more interesting. There is no shyness about partisan broadcasting on this side of the pond. Fox News is avowedly Trumpite whilst CNN is vociferous in its support for the Democrats. In some ways it is awful but, guiltily, I have to admit it is not as stifling as the tedious ‘balance’ of the BBC.

And as the impeachment of Trump proceeds apace, at least through the House of Representatives, you are reminded that politics here is possibly even more crazily polarised than it is in the UK.

So what is happening?

First, Trump. It always has to be… He is looking genuinely rattled by the impeachment process. The evidence mounts of improper behaviour over Ukraine and even loyal Republicans are getting nervous. Trump’s ability to sell America’s interests down the river for personal advancement is resonating outside all but his core base. The Democrats don’t look quite as purely partisan in starting impeachment proceedings as they might have been. Trump also exploded in a meeting with senior Democrats yesterday including insulting Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker, to her face. They walked out and there is a sense Trump is losing the plot.

Then there is Syria. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for Trump. His shocking misjudgment at selling out the Kurds by pulling out the few US troops left from northern Syria, with no apparent professional State Department advice, has shocked many Republican Senators such as the normally loyal Lindsey Graham. He needs people like these to save him from full impeachment. And, remember, the political professionals in the Republican Party really loathe Trump but have been forced to put up with him because of his grassroots popularity. They had nowhere else to go. They might now, particularly as polls are starting to turn against Trump in the uncommitted category.

However you then get the Democrats. Sadly, they are in some ways similar to Corbyn’s Labour Party in believing the solution to a move to the Right is to move to the Left. There was a debate on Tuesday amongst the leading contenders and here are a few thoughts.

Elizabeth Warren, the new left-wing frontrunner, looks somewhat vulnerable. Bernie Sanders, post heart attack, looks robust and convincing but only from a socialist perspective…Joe Biden, I feel, has lost it. When can you say in a rightly anti-ageist world that somebody is too old? I will leave it to others to decide. Who really impressed was Mayor Pete Buttigieg. A real talent but possibly not quite ready now. Very bright, moderate, calm and assured. There were other notable contributions, some bad, some good, but Trump still dominated. One feels he has to self implode to allow these mostly relative wallflowers to bloom.

So back to where we are. Groundhog Day. I wonder if Brexit will be the same…?

To paraphrase…I don’t know Winston Churchill and Boris Johnson is no Winston Churchill…

Johnson fundamentally doesn’t want an EU deal. He wants a heroic departure. Why else would he leave it so late to concoct a proposed amended withdrawal deal which ensures border controls even if they are not ‘at or near’ the border of Ireland and Northern Ireland? Why would he threaten to flout the law by refusing to contemplate remaining in the EU post 31st October as parliament dictates? Why did he try for a lengthy prorogation of parliament? Why does he choose language such as ‘surrender’ and, yesterday, in his Party Conference speech, tangentially make reference to his tangles with the Supreme Court with the words ‘age of creative litigation’?

Regardless of whether Johnson strikes a Brexit deal with the EU and enough colleagues in Westminster, the next election will still be about ‘the People versus Parliament’ with all the dangerous precedents that sets. Referenda throughout history have been used by the majority (however narrow) to subjugate the minority and it is no different now. You trash representative democracy, pay lip service to our Supreme Court and mislead the Queen. You remain unrepentant because you are a warrior; a warrior against European domination and the fashionable elites. That is the Churchillian pose of this Prime Minister. If he is allowed to get away with it, the long-term consequences are shocking. Not least if this most un-Tory of leaders is followed by a Marxist Prime Minister, who uses such precedents to even greater effect.

Johnson has nowhere else to go. His strategy, crafted by Cummings, is set in stone. It is do or die.

So, will he get away with it? Quite possibly. Labour, under the hopeless Corbyn, provides Johnson with a huge window of opportunity. The Tories, after all, despite the Brexit Party, are 11% ahead in the opinion polls. An array of populist Tory spending pledges (what happened to Tory economic prudence?) may reinforce their lead as they seek to steal Labour seats in the North. The LibDems will do well but may not match expectations with their hard Remain stance in the Brexit South West undermining prospects there.

Then we would have a truly Churchillian victory. Gulp!

However, the Tories will lose seats in Scotland after Ruth Davidson’s departure and their DUP allies may lose ground in Northern Ireland, even handing victory to Sinn Fein. They will lose several heavily Remain seats in the South East and London. And the evidence in previous elections is that Tory spending pledges and Brexit are not quite enough to peel votes from Labour in its strongholds. Finally, Farage is not going anywhere and certainly if we have not left the EU by 31st October, the Brexit Party will be rejuvenated whatever Johnson’s bluster.

On balance, only that fundamentally unwanted EU deal, or God forbid, a pact with the Brexit Party, guarantees an election victory for Johnson otherwise a hung parliament and a second referendum beckons.

Not quite so Churchillian after all.

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