Yes, it is Trump’s America. Over the past ten days, I have travelled from San Francisco to Milwaukee, Chicago to New York. Trump is everywhere, and that is his secret. Loathe him or love him, the media dances to his tune, rising to his bait or praising him lavishly. CNN makes no pretence of being the Democrat’s mouthpiece, likewise Fox News speaks for Trump. But it doesn’t really matter. All channels including social media follow Trump’s agenda anyway.

Politically, the Democrats are nowhere. They have no clear leader and no clear response to Trump. The only thing I can remember from them during my visit was Elizabeth Warren bizarrely issuing the results of a DNA test proving her claims to Native American heritage. Who cares? As the Democrats drift to the Left, overwhelmed with political correctness, Trump, cleverly advised, unfairly paints them as an extreme, ‘left wing mob’. They don’t help themselves by failing to seem relevant and the strategy galvanises Trump’s base.

Trump’s approval ratings in advance of the midterm elections have just hit a record high of 47%, fuelled by a booming economy, a ruthless focus on immigration and clever politics. Incredible after his behaviour over Brett Kavanaugh and a recent exchange of tweets on his alleged affair with Stormy Daniels. In relation to the former, mocking a woman who gave evidence on her sexual assault and, in relation to the latter, twitter exchanges making references to ‘horse face’, genitalia size and blatant accusations of lying. It should make the US public blush with embarrassment; but they have become immune to the drama and corrosive level of public debate. Trump’s initial response to the murder of  the journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, last week, even if less hypocritical than some US dealings with the Saudis, underpins his lack of moral compass.

Interest in the midterm elections is at a record high but that might not save the Democrats who currently seem on course to deliver a disappointing result against high expectations. Eight years of Trump are as likely as ever.

This is a great country but it feels a line is gradually being crossed on a number of fronts. The economy roars but debt is soaring. Courtesy of Trump’s tax cuts, latest figures suggest servicing this debt now comfortably exceeds $500 billion annually, up nearly 15% on the last fiscal year. This stores up enormous problems for the years ahead. Excess wealth and extreme poverty is widespread. This has probably always been the case but what is new is that any political consensus about the way forward has all but evaporated. Public discourse is often untruthful, vicious and demeaning. Few offer a consensual way forward to this nation’s growing longer term challenges.

Will America hold together? Almost certainly. It is the world’s only superpower (for now) and the vibrancy and energy that got it there is not easily dissipated even with a gridlocked political system and some appalling standards of public conduct. But to be fully certain, it surely needs a ‘political saviour’ to put the country back on course. The problem is that person or party is not currently visible.

 

 

 

 

Phew! Returning from the Conservative Party conference and watching Theresa May’s speech at my desk, with my heart in my mouth, it is now over: positive, optimistic, serious and well delivered. Supporters can now relax!

I didn’t agree with some of the content, particularly on Brexit, but there was some good stuff on domestic policy and it has bought the PM a little more time with the Party faithful. My, does she need it.

And what of her opponents? I am relieved to say that Boris Johnson blew it. His speech yesterday was obviously box office in a dull conference but many of the same people applauding him were back today applauding Theresa May. It was witty in part but long on objectives and short on solutions. It was like musical theatre; nice on the ear, entertaining, but with no definable substance. The growing irritation with Johnson from his parliamentary colleagues is what really matters and the recent photograph of him running through a field of wheat in parody of the PM to many was the final straw…

Nobody really wants the PM’s job before next March (except the former Foreign Secretary) and my betting is that she has another year or two. There is a strong consensus that Theresa May is a real trouper and deserves to be supported now but shouldn’t be allowed to lead the Tories into another General Election. That would still give her 4/5 years as PM and a chance to deliver Brexit. There are worse premierships.

Lastly, a few additional insights from Conference:

• Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee, which decides the leadership rules for leader, confirmed in conversation, that some MPs claiming to have submitted a no confidence letter to him on Theresa May have actually done no such thing!
• The PM understands that a fudge to get Brexit over the line on March 29th with the real decisions being taken in the transition period is untenable. The uncertainty and damage to the economy would be too great.
• A no-deal has really serious implications for supply chains and ministers say quietly there is no exaggeration in some of the dire predictions if talks break down. It drives the desire for a deal even if it requires further (limited) compromises.
• Should there be a leadership election, in reality Boris is almost certainly a busted flush with his parliamentary colleagues. The next leader will come from centrists in the Cabinet; Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt (although his speech comparing the EU to the Soviet Union was poorly received) and possibly David Davis as a stop gap from outside the cabinet.

There you go. Theresa May survives and ends the conference a little bit stronger. Only a Brexit deal to deliver in a matter of a few weeks!