It says a good deal about today’s Tories that the pro-Brexit, Thatcherite PM, Rishi Sunak, is seen as a moderate force towards the Left within his Party.

Sunak’s tenure has probably come too late to save the Tories…

Why? Because Sunak believes in sound finances, only cutting taxes when the country can afford it; because he believes in building strong relationships with our European allies as he seeks a solution to the Northern Ireland Protocol; because he objectively believes in probity in government regardless of Party loyalty, which led to him rightly leaving Johnson’s Cabinet. Incredible.

Sunak is manifestly competent, but many in his Party are not. Despite a paper majority of over 70, he can barely muster enough support on any, even remotely, controversial issues. Many of his MPs have given up the ghost, and Red Wall Tory colleagues were never schooled in the art of Party loyalty anyway. Staring defeat in the face, there is no fear in upsetting their Front Bench as they threaten revolt. The fleeting opportunity of ministerial advancement is seen as pointless. Sunak is dragging the train as they say. And it shows.

Then there is the probity of his Cabinet. When you are asking voters to pay record amounts of tax, you cannot have a Party Chairman subject to a fine from HMRC for not paying sufficient personal tax out of ‘carelessness’ in his complex tax arrangements. Dominic Raab, the Justice Secretary, is facing 24 counts of alleged bullying. And then the former PM, Johnson, has been caught using his BBC Chair appointee to help broker an £800,000 loan when in office.

You can’t write the script. Starmer does not have to particularly shine to take apart this seemingly tired, out of touch Tory government. Sadly, for Sunak and loyal Conservatives, Sunak’s tenure has probably come too late, and the faces of his troubled and troublesome backbenchers show it.

To answer the question of an earlier blog, it is now very much 1997, not 1992.

I know… I know… never talk about religion… but this is not strictly about what individuals believe, rather it is about organisational failures and poor leadership generally. It is at the heart of the decline of the Church of England, even taking into account the overall pressures from an increasingly secular society.

A damning view that the Church of England is ‘sinking in its own irrelevance’…

Let’s begin. Out of 85 million who identify with the Anglican Communion, 25 million are represented by the Church of England. Yet denomination membership in the UK has halved from 3.4 million in the 1960s to 1.6 million in 2020 and regular attendance at Church of England services has fallen by 40% to 600,000 since 2009. Incredibly, only 14% of the UK’s population identifies with the Church of England. The grim list of statistics goes on.

The barrier to a solution to this decline, of course, is that numbers are religious power and of the 85 million Anglicans globally, many are based overseas with very different views on a variety of issues, most notably social liberalism. In an attempt to keep everyone on board, successive Archbishops of Canterbury have often sat on the fence on controversial issues to keep the church together. It therefore stands for less and less.

It has certainly hastened the decline of Anglicanism in the liberal West. It has led to the Church following rather than leading on a range of social issues, appearing out of touch, old fashioned and, in some cases, downright cruel. It is, in a damning recent quote, ‘drowning in its own irrelevance’.

And this has culminated in a hopelessly contorted position on gay marriage in churches announced this week. Whilst a majority of the UK population supports same-sex marriages wherever, including a majority who identify themselves as Anglicans, Church of England bishops, after five years of debate (!), have just refused to back gay marriage in churches but still back clergy blessings of civil same-sex marriages. This comes from an organisation that only allowed the ordination of women priests in 1992 and female bishops in 2014…

The distinctly anaemic current Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, believes in keeping his views on same-sex marriage secret whilst in post. What sort of leadership is that?

Deep down, the Church of England’s approach is never going to solve the rift between theological conservatives and pro-equality progressives.

Despite the power in numbers of followers, is it time for honest debate and a possible Anglican split? The time for sitting on the fence is surely over on key issues wider society has already resolved in its own mind. Otherwise, the Church of England will continue to sink.

Sigh… it is time for another set of predictions for the year ahead. It may be age but it feels trickier than ever to work out what is likely to happen. The outcome of some events such as the Ukraine war may influence almost everything.

But, first, this blog’s predictions for 2022. Their accuracy will allow you to decide whether to read further.

Well, whilst not a vintage year, five out of seven were correct although one, along with almost all commentators, was spectacularly wrong. Let’s get that out of the way first.

‘Russia will not invade Ukraine’. Umm… This was made on the understanding there was no long-term upside to taking this initiative and it would ultimately uncover the weakness of Putin. The latter point may be correct but not much compensation for the suffering Ukrainians.

Second, in the US, the Democrats would get a pasting in the mid-terms. I am happy to get this wrong particularly as Republicans in the House of Representatives are currently showing their increasing extremism. They have only just elected a Speaker from their own ranks after 15 ballots who is totally in hock to MAGA fanatics.

Time to move to the correct predictions. In the UK, Johnson would survive 2022 only on the proviso no further revelations came out of ‘Partygate’ or another scandal appeared. Well as the blog was completed further scandals from ‘Partygate’ did appear and then another fib from No. 10 caught up with Johnson and he was gone.

Fourth, Johnson’s calculated gamble on relaxing Covid restrictions would succeed. Despite Johnson’s ultimate demise, this was correct. Politics is so unfair!

Internationally, fifth, sixth and seventh were also correct. Macron would win the French Presidential election; Bolsonaro would lose his in Brazil. In the US, despite Biden’s frailties, the future would not lie with Trump but rather a more calculating political, far-right Republican. Cue Ron deSantis, Governor of Florida…

So now to 2023. Here we go…

In UK politics, there will be no election this year (an easy prediction!) but no recovery in the Tories’ fortunes either. The damage of three PMs in 2022, a recession, tax rises, a failing NHS and public sector strikes after 13 years of Tory rule will stick in voters’ minds. Whilst competent, Sunak’s style as yet does not quite resonate but deep down most Tories know the return of Johnson is no solution either, and it will not happen. On the other hand, Starmer will need to stand for something more concrete as the economy will undoubtedly start to recover in the second half of the year.

In the US, subject to health considerations (a big if), Biden will run again. Otherwise look to Buttigeig, Vice-President Harris or one of the Democrat’s successful Senators/Governors such as Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota or Gavin Newsom from California. On the Republican side, if he runs, deSantis will trump Trump.

The Ukraine war will last throughout the year. There can be no escape for Putin, trapped by nationalists on his Right and the West’s surprisingly robust, united opposition. What further drives the West is the fear of China’s threat to Taiwan. After their Covid debacle China won’t invade imminently but the threat is increasing.

There are no significant elections globally except in Turkey where one would expect the wily President Erdogan to win yet again. Although it won’t be easy this time round with all the major cities held by the Opposition.

Lastly, for optimists, in the UK, we have the pomp and ceremony of a Coronation in May and are hosting Eurovision in the same month. This blog comfortably predicts they will be happy events despite the stormy backdrop to both of them and might just help us get through a challenging year.

A happy and successful 2023 to you all.