There has been no blog for the past few weeks. The trajectory of politics has been pretty predictable and there has been nothing to add; the gradual demise of today’s Tories, the rise of Trump and the truly vile anti-West right-wing Republicans, the permanence of Putin and populism on the march in Europe.
But having spent some time with senior Tories recently, the sheer disaster awaiting them at the next Election is clearly coming into view and they know they can do nothing about it. This will be no 1992 all over again. The Tories will be routed and 1997 may evoke fond memories for them in comparison.
Ah, I hear people say, there is no appetite for Starmer. It doesn’t matter. The public is so heartedly sick of the Tories, Labour will storm it whether it is partly due to Tories staying at home (similar to 1997) or the rise of Reform UK or the rise of the LibDems in the South or the collapse of the SNP in the North.
Interestingly, Sky News do a tracking poll of 33 voters who voted Tory in 2019. Nine are switching to Labour and five to Reform. On this small sample alone, the Tory vote will be down by over 40%. Interesting, really, that we seem to be the only major democracy currently moving mostly to the left even if it is without enthusiasm.
Holding a sword… a key attribute apparently to becoming the next Tory leader…
But it can hardly be surprising. The behaviour of senior Tories is appalling, now contemplating another change at the top from the decent if increasingly politically hapless Sunak. Penny Mordaunt is the next sacrificial lamb mooted as leader, her key merit being she held a sword aloft very well at the Coronation. You really can’t write the script…
To some extent it is Sunak’s fault. He is no Tory left-winger but in trying to ingratiate himself with the Right he has simply earned their contempt. He should have stood up to them from the start. If they felt Johnson and Truss were ok why did he think they would ever accept him? Let them clear off to Reform if they have to. It will ultimately be a political dead-end.
The only silver lining, first highlighted by the excellent Stephen Bush in the FT, is that post-election there is a small chance the Tories move to the centre-ground as right-wingers amongst the grassroots head elsewhere. Certainly, analysis shows the parliamentary party will not move much to the Right in composition if it is defenestrated. Umm…, I am not so sure. It partly takes ruthlessness from moderates to seize control of the Tory Party and there is currently no evidence they are up for the fight.
Hey ho. It feels like an exciting year ahead politically but one where no one really gets what they want!
Follow https://insiderightpolitics.com/ directly or on X.
Inside Right Politics 
An interesting blog post but why would Labour set out detailed policies to engage voters when they are so far ahead in the polls and the tories keep adopting their ideas – non dom tax status for example which is now being used for tax cuts which according to most polls are not wanted – voters would prefer money to be be used to help plug holes in public services. Whilst the tories destroy themselves labour should definitely keep their powder dry.
On the Tory party – I agree with your summary that the party won’t necessarily move back to the centre ground. It needs all ‘one nation’ tories to go out and recruit new centre right members to take back control, especially in the under 45 age group. Set out possible policies that that age group can buy into and tory fortunes will and can revive.
Phil Hunter
LikeLike
Fair points. There is a whole blog in particular on the Tories alienating the younger generation with support as low as 10%.
LikeLike