Lunching with a senior journalist this week, he professed optimism about British politics. As I recovered from my choking spasm and incredulously asked why, he spoke warmly about the destruction of the two-party political system and coalition politics becoming a permanent feature in the UK. He may well be right. All very German, Italian, Dutch…etc.

This unplanned consequence of Brexit is, with a little concentration, easy to understand. The Tories and Labour are moving to the extremes, the latter under Corbyn, the former under the soon to be anointed Johnson. These two great parties used to contain a spectrum of views. Big tent politics if you like. But no longer. Both are looking at deselecting MPs who don’t fully embrace socialism/Marxism or Brexit. It is scandalous, a tragedy, but it will usher in a new form of politics which may justify that journalist’s optimism; coalition politics embracing moderates from all sides. After all, many argue the 2010-2015 Tory/Lib Dem coalition worked. Fiscally conservative, socially liberal and pro-Europe.

The move of Corbyn’s Labour Party to the far left has been well documented but what about the Tory Party? The Tory membership has apparently grown from c120,000 to c160,000 with new members who joined up to 3 months ago being allowed to vote in the current leadership contest. Since Theresa May’s departure has been well trailed for at least the past 12 months, it was always easy, particularly with help from the lovely rich activist, Arron Banks, for former UKIP members to infiltrate the Tories and tilt it further in a purist Brexit direction.

Johnson will become the Tories’ leader and Prime Minister, barring any further serious mishaps, on a hard Brexit agenda – and he is setting the 31st October date to leave the EU in stone, deal or no deal. He has said that he cannot countenance any opposition to this stance from within his Cabinet, so no room for moderates then. There is also an active campaign in place to deselect those dozen or so highly pro-Remain Tory MPs, again with the help of Arron Banks. The Tories are increasingly becoming a populist, right-wing Brexit party in all but name.

Even when it comes to broader issues such as tax, cuts have been mooted for the rich, as austerity and the broader health of the economy are sacrificed on the altar of leadership ambition. To be fair to Johnson, at least he is a social liberal, but Brexit is the defining issue of the day and it will stain the Tory Party for a generation.

So, how will all this play out? The Liberal Democrats are soaring, and the Greens are prospering too. The nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales are also getting a boost. Labour may change leader (Tom Watson?) or split. A snap General Election in the face of EU ‘intransigence’ at failing to re-open the Withdrawal Agreement may allow the Tories to absorb a good proportion of the current Brexit Party’s support but a parliamentary majority? Hardly likely in the ensuing chaos.

Strikes me that we may be in for a long period of coalition politics. Neither the Labour or Conservative parties will attract enough support from their increasingly narrow electoral bases to command a parliamentary majority on their own, possibly for a generation. It is exactly what they deserve.

‘Bumboys’, ‘piccaninnies’, ‘watermelon smiles’, ‘letter boxes’…We have had them all from the Tories’ runaway favourite for leader, Boris Johnson. A man who has been sacked twice for lying to his Editor and Party Leader. Other allegations swirl around him too. It won’t matter. The Tories are desperate and bored. He will overwhelm Hunt and be crowned PM in July. The only saving grace is that many of us will be out of the country on holiday then.

So it is time to look forward and see what a Johnson administration will be like. He will almost certainly assemble many of his London Mayoral team around him to manage the detail. Even his strongest supporters admit this is not his forte.

But in parliament:

• First the Cabinet. He will include several of the contenders. Almost certainly Hancock, Hunt and Javid. Gove and Leadsom’s futures are more uncertain. Rumours have it of Raab for Attorney General but not Truss for Chancellor. The quixotic but highly talented Rory Steward has ruled himself out of working with Johnson. One hopes his time will come although I doubt it. Grayling and probably Gauke will be gone too. It will be interesting to see what happens to Rudd and Rees-Mogg. Johnson will be keen to establish his One Nation credentials (ex-Brexit) which favours the former and hardly the latter!
• Lower ranks. After that there will be talented backers from the ‘next generation’ moving up the ministerial ranks such as James Cleverly, Kwasi Kwarteng, Rishi Sunak, Kit Malthouse to name but a few. Look at his earliest backers and then cross-check with the website ConservativeHome. As good a guide as any.

On policy:

• Brexit. The common view is that the EU will make minor concessions on the backstop. Just enough for Johnson to claim victory in the context of an extended transition period. If not, we are heading for a No Deal exit from the EU. It is ultimately difficult to see Parliament blocking this even with the help of the Speaker and would renegade Remain Tories bring down their own government in a no-confidence vote? We shall see.
• Economics. Forget those tax cuts for the better off, downgraded to an aspiration already. Infrastructure spending and a review of HS2 are on the cards but the latter will be kept on in some form. A bright committed thinker on social care (Hunt?) will make this a priority and there will be more money for schools.
• Foreign policy. A glamorous trip to the US beckons. Trump and the alt.right generally will embrace Johnson. Will Johnson be conventional, wary of a backlash back home? One doubts he cares and his ego and careless language may get the better of him. His Foreign Secretary will have his/her work cut out for them.

On the Opposition:

• Labour. Prime Ministers can be lucky and Johnson couldn’t be luckier. Despite no overall majority, he has Corbyn and a clumsily hostile SNP to deal with. When will Labour get their act together? Not this side of a General Election. They are hopelessly split and hopelessly led. One person to watch is Tom Watson, long predicted to be the next leader of the Labour Party by smart Guardian journalists, but wishful thinking I suspect.
• Liberal Democrats. Can you name their leadership contenders? I doubt it! Looking dreary at the moment but early days. If they get a sound economic policy in place then, in addition to their stance on Brexit, they may garner many moderate Tory voters. If polling suggests they could win 30/40/50 seats very difficult to see the Tories winning an overall majority in a future General Election, even if they do see off the Brexit Party, and an informal Lib/Lab alliance beckons. Hardly inspiring.

Almost nothing can touch Johnson at this stage. He is our Teflon Trump. But the role of PM is huge and cannot be filled by expert advisers alone. Many Tory MPs backing him know full well a Johnson administration may blow up within 12 months but just want him to deliver Brexit and Farage’s head on a plate first. A quick post Brexit General Election beckons and certainly one before 2022 if the Tories soar in the polls. Unlikely.

Can politics be entertaining and depressing at the same time? We are about to find out…

So now we have it…The Top Ten…the cream of Britain’s political class…the solution to all the country’s ills. Really? This is the widest choice of candidates Tories have ever been presented with for the leadership (the previous record was five candidates), but it is also the shallowest.

The main problem, however, is the ‘selectorate’. 313 Tory MPs, terrified of a Corbyn victory in the face of the Brexit Party, are panicking and will vote for any ‘prophet’ who will save them from Farage, regardless of the longer-term consequences. Then there is the Tory membership; allegedly 160,000. Mostly older, right-wing and almost uniformly anti-EU voters, they have often in the past and will, now, vote on the basis of Europe, not talent or wider electoral appeal. Think Hague and Ian Duncan-Smith. They will probably deliver to the wider public a new Brexit Party in all but name, anchoring the perception of a move to the populist right for a generation.

And, with the exception of Rory Stewart, if we explore these candidates in more depth, you find that, ex Brexit, their core appeal is also to squander the hard-won gains from austerity. We are still running a deficit, there are real problems with social care and the delivery of local authority services generally, in infrastructure spending, particularly in the North. But billions are pledged elsewhere with the most ludicrous proposal coming from the front runner, Boris Johnson. Tax cuts for those earning over £50,000 (ex Scotland of course), spending the Brexit dividend before he has any idea how to access it.

And that takes us to Boris Johnson in more detail…What does it say about a candidate who is kept out of the limelight for fear of making a gaffe and ruining his chances of leadership? A man who is loose with the truth, flirts with the alt.right and has little attention to detail. Of course, he is socially liberal (he would have to be…) which doesn’t chime with many of his supporters, so he is staying quiet on this too. And he is charismatic. A rare quality in today’s Tories. But that is not enough. Being Prime Minister is serious, grinding business as many occupants not really up to it have found out and we certainly don’t need a Donald Trump Mark II. The best put down came from Max Hastings who, as editor, employed Johnson at The Telegraph. To paraphrase him, he thinks Johnson sees himself as a Winston Churchill figure when in reality he is more Steve Coogan.

On Brexit generally, the best question to wannabee leaders came from the Tory MP, Sam Gyimah, who didn’t make it to the final 10. He will vote for the person who has a plan B when the EU doesn’t re-open negotiations and there is no No-Deal majority in Parliament. We haven’t had a definitive answer from most candidates yet, least of all Johnson.

On his performance to date, the next leader should be Rory Stewart but the final battle will probably be between Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson with the latter the hot favourite. Unlike many of the candidates in their past, we will be forced to watch this unedifying contest without the benefits of chemical stimuli…

As the free world commemorates the 75th anniversary of D-Day, one of the most memorable speeches came from the Queen at the US State Banquet on Monday night. Standing next to President Trump, it was as close as any leader got to even gently chastising him about his priorities. The Tory leadership wannabees in particular had their heads too much up his firmament to try and influence his opinions. It is worth quoting the relevant paragraph from Her Majesty in full:

“As we face the new challenges of the Twenty First Century, the anniversary of D-Day reminds us of all that our countries have achieved together. After the shared sacrifices of the Second World War, Britain and the United States worked with other allies to build an assembly of international institutions, to ensure that the horrors of conflict would never be repeated. While the world has changed, we are forever mindful of the original purpose of these structures: nations working together to safeguard a hard won peace.”

So, which are these international institutions? The UN, NATO and the EU, all loathed by Trump and his administration in favour of dictators who ignore international norms such as Putin, Xi and Kim Jong-un. You can add to ‘institutions’ those international agreements relating to climate change and Iran too.

Of course, it is sensible to ask countries to pay their fair share on defence, to challenge corruption in the UN and challenge restrictive trade practices within the EU, but not pull the rug from under them. The alternative is a world of competing individual nation states, each focused solely on putting their own interests first. That route leads to hostilities and war. This is the philosophy of the Alt. Right, of Trump and, as we understand it, partly the philosophy of the likely next leader of the Conservative Party in the UK.

Nearly all the major issues facing the global community are cross-border ones, whether it is economic, climate or defence related. As the technological revolution gains speed, so globalisation speeds up too. It is not going to go away and Trump’s many erratic America First impulses are no solution.

Size also matters. Here in the UK, for example, do we really think, on our own, we can influence trade when we are a little over 3% of global exports? Do we really think we can influence the global economy when we are 2.4% of global GDP? Do we really think we can influence defence related matters when we have less than 100,000 soldiers and four nuclear submarines reliant on US technology? These international institutions matter, not least the EU.

There is one aspect, however, where size doesn’t matter, where the UK is unique. It is the presence of the Royal Family. I am not a particular royalist but watching them massage the ego of Trump whilst reminding him of the legitimacy of international institutions was quite special. It put our current crop of cringing politicians in government to shame.