Phew! Macron has won re-election and the sigh of relief from liberal democrats generally and the EU in particular is palpable. It was a sound victory but incomplete. The revamped Marine Le Pen came too close for comfort against an incumbent centrist known for his arrogance.

A welcome victory is not enough…

The lesson? No room for complacency. Liberal democracy constantly underestimates the tsunami effect of global crises where the ripple effects grow into a destructive force which has untold consequences such as potential or actual victories for the populist far-right.

Here are three examples:

The crash of 2008 was, with the benefit of hindsight, managed disastrously for the future of democracy. Grotesque capitalism runs rampant, unchecked, courted indeed by the likes of Blair’s government. It leads to a meltdown of the financial system as we know it. Huge government bailouts follow (understandable at the time, the current system being all we have) with no business leaders held to criminal account for their greed and recklessness. Then quantitative easing which fuelled asset price inflation making the rich richer and the poor poorer. The picture is complete for the rise of right-wing populism as the less well-off pay the price of severe cuts in public expenditure to try and balance the books.

The impact of 2008 led to Brexit, Trump, Johnson et al and the rise of Le Pen who, let’s not forget, got at least 40% of the vote yesterday. The resentment of the less well off who are told what’s good for them by an established elite and then things fail to improve or deteriorate is manifest.

So, to Brexit. The detrimental ripple effects, sadly washing over the very people who voted for it, are now increasingly visible. Disrupted trade, an economy growing more slowly contributing partially to the cost-of-living crisis, is painful to see. It is not a coincidence that a weakened EU was applauded by all the wrong leaders. Which takes us to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine…

In a way, this third crisis was of the West’s own making. Obsessed with itself, underestimating the evilness of Putin, failing to adjust energy and security policies even after his actions in Syria and the invasion of Crimea, a quick chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan were all building blocks for the latest threat to Western democracy. Today, despite the brave resistance of the Ukrainians and a better initial response from the West than anticipated, the threat of Putin has never been greater. A victory in the East followed by a renewed onslaught on the rest of the country, perhaps followed by Moldova, is scary. The slow burn fall-out is huge. Success for thuggery, a new cold war, mass emigration, a questioning of the benefits of democracy, support of which is already in decline all provide an opportunity for the West to display its divisive self-interest.

So, yesterday, Macron won but this provides a short-lived respite. After all, who spotted or will spot the crisis of liberal capitalism in the solutions to the 2008 crash, the long-term consequences of Brexit for all of Europe and what may be the West’s patchy response to the long-term fallout of a Russian victory in Ukraine if it occurs?

The West and liberal democracy in general have to restate the principles for their existence and do this constantly. There has to be an understanding of the longer-term reverberations from Western inspired crises on society as a whole and act accordingly otherwise there will be more Trumps, Orbans, Marine Le Pens and, in a more diluted form, Johnsons. Some of them, as we know, get elected and that is never a good thing.

A better title for this blog would be ‘Spot the difference: ‘law makers, law breakers’ but sadly it is already being used and used everywhere.

The position of Johnson and, sadly perhaps, potentially the impressive Chancellor, is untenable. You cannot impose laws on the rest of us and be found breaking them yourselves. How can the integrity of parliament making any laws now remain intact after this if at least Johnson remains in office? There would be no moral authority to pass them and have us obey.

They were the future once…

The next few days and weeks are very dangerous for the Tories. If their leaders can be fined for breaking lockdown laws with the PM presiding over Downing Street staff sharing at least 50 fines across 12 parties, what will voters deduce? And that is before potentially further fines and the likely gruesome full report from Sue Gray into these parties is published.

Many will say Johnson is unfit for office, but they will also conclude so are the Tories as a whole if they can’t act to remove him quickly. Tainted by association will be the obvious narrative. The Opposition must be licking their lips and Starmer may actually want Johnson to stay in office in private whatever he calls for publicly. Johnson provides a ripe target. Surely, the Tories realise this?

And what nonsense it is to excuse Johnson because of the war with Ukraine. Domestic morality cannot be turned on and off for international events. Our response to supporting Ukraine is a government one not the personal fiefdom of the Prime Minister. Any successor would undoubtedly maintain our current stance. Probity in a healthy democracy contrasts sharply with Putin’s brutal, corrupt regime.

So, the scene is set for the Tories to redeem themselves by changing their leader or the scene is set for much more certain defeat, but indications suggest they will not. Whilst Johnson may well be ousted if May’s local elections prove disastrous, it may be too late by then. The damage will have been done.

Think about the narrative. The first serving Prime Minister to break the law amidst heart-breaking lockdown restrictions. A Chancellor appearing to dodge taxes. One law for us, no laws for them. A cost-of-living crisis as the backdrop. A tired Party in office for too long, stripped of its moral authority. It all feels, for those that can remember, very 1992-1997 except the Major versus Johnson comparison would not be fair on Major.

The current best leader of the Tories they never had, the former Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson, put it succinctly:

‘Met confirms what we already knew: the PM introduced liberty-curtailing rules for public health reasons. This caused huge hardship for those separated from ill or dying loved ones. He then broke the rules he imposed on the country and lost the moral authority to lead. He should go.’

It is that simple and good Tories know this. Johnson’s time is up, and they should remove him now before it is too late for them all.

In the face of Putin’s onslaught on Ukraine you would have thought populism would be killed off once and for all, at least in Europe. This man had the sympathy of anti-Europeans everywhere, the far-right and where in existence the far-left in Europe generally, let alone populists more globally. Populists’ previous support for Putin and tepid condemnation of his actions now would surely be the final nail in their coffin.

But no. At the start of April, a government in Hungary sympathetic to Putin pre the invasion wins an overwhelming re-election victory. The Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, busily undermining the judiciary and independent media, who called the EU and President Zelenskyy ‘his opponents’ is triumphant.

Then we have the first-round of French Presidential elections, where the far-right Marine Le Pen is within 4% of President Macron and will face him in the second-round runoff on 24th April. She could win.

A little bit of a background to this election. President Macron, infuriatingly arrogant, chose to focus on Ukraine rather than bother campaigning in earnest on domestic issues believing he was home and dry. He forgot the elephant in the room, the cost-of-living crisis, and is rightly taking a kicking. He should still win but might not. The French electorate are angry, and Europe has a history of electing far-right leaders by accident…

For all Macron’s mistakes, how has a ‘previous racist’ who wanted to withdraw from the Euro and EU got this far? Her Party took a generous Russian loan, and she was an admirer of Putin, with Putin appearing in early election literature. To paraphrase a well know saying, you can put lipstick on an animal, but it is still the same animal…

The answer of course is complacent out of touch politicians failing to address the concerns of core voters. When voters feel, however unfairly, that you hear more debate about culture wars, for example, than solutions to the severe economic pain they are experiencing you despair…

Which takes us to the UK. The modestly populist Tory government is in trouble for exactly the same reasons centrist moderates are. It seems to have forgotten the core concerns of voters. With the PM still embroiled in ‘partygate’ and his now formerly admired Chancellor and his wife engulfed in allegations of tax dodging, it appears it is one law on Covid and tax for governing elites whilst the less well-off struggle financially. The massive hike in energy prices is crippling for many. Help so far has come in the form of loans or a relaxation of the impact of the National Insurance increase which only benefits those in work. Against this backdrop, wine in offices during lockdown as laws forced us to self-isolate and non-dom status for fabulously rich partners as taxes for everyone else rise demonstrates an increasingly political tin ear to say the least. Incredibly, bland, second-rate Labour may still lose the next election but, my, the Tories are making it difficult for themselves. They should be thankful there is no credible far-right alternative to vote for.

So, there you are. The forces of populism are alive and well and still the driving force in many democratic countries. And you have resurgent inflation too. A depressing double whammy you might say.