The Labour Party has played a blinder in now supporting ‘a’ customs union solution for leaving the EU. Pro Remain campaigners have railed in frustration as Corbyn dragged his feet on this issue or the option of staying within the Single Market. They feared he saw the EU as a capitalist conspiracy and never really wanted to be a member in the first place.

They are probably right but pressure within the Party, combined more importantly with the raw politics of causing the Tories maximum damage, has won out. Perfectly timed, the Tories yet again find themselves in disarray and Thursday’s Chequers meeting to thrash out an agreed stance all looks a long time ago.

Of course, this manoeuvre by Labour was easily predictable but flat-footed Tories torn between their extremities are powerless to swerve out of its way. It is a bit rich for them to respond by saying Labour ‘are playing with our country’s future’!

So what happens now? The EU may of course reject Labour’s proposal immediately on a take it or leave it basis – no bespoke deals – but that would be bad politics from a divide and rule perspective.

There will be a vote in the Commons on remaining within a customs union in the next couple of months, probably April. The scenarios are endless. Labour must back a cross-party motion to get enough Tories on board to defeat the Government. Even Sinn Fein may take up their seats in Parliament to ensure this defeat.

Theresa May could of course make it a Confidence vote; but she should be careful. So disgusted are moderate Tories at the willingness of their right-wing colleagues to abandon the Good Friday Agreement (all related to ensuring a frictionless Irish border between North and South, resolved only by a customs union) that they may let the Government fall.

The Tories’ obsession with Europe has been their Achilles heel for decades, worthy of the great historical debates of the 19th Century. Perhaps they can only prosper in Opposition with a new generation of leaders who do not have to define themselves by their stance on Europe. How did we get here? Ask the European Research Group led by Rees-Mogg… but a few disastrous years of a Labour Government may have to be the price paid for a long term, credible Conservative Party, to emerge.

Oh dear, where have they gone? Representing most of what is sensible in centre, centre left politics, the Liberal Democrats were meant to surge as standard bearers of voters appalled by Brexit and the Tories’ hard line stance on how we depart. But they have flat lined in opinion polls at 7-8%. Why?

Three reasons. First, and foremost, in a polarised world, their weak tone simply doesn’t resonate with voters. Generally anyone interested in politics is angry; angry we are leaving the EU, angry about the compromises being made on the terms of our departure, angry about cuts. The Liberal Democrats simply bore for Britain, and not in a good way.

Second, Vince Cable doesn’t have the energy or charisma to shape debates and none of the other MPs are making any impact either. His leadership also comes hard on the heels of a previous leader with bizarre religious conflicts surrounding homosexuality. You couldn’t write the script about such confusion in such a small political space…

Third, they have lost their PMQ slot, compounding a sense of irrelevance and are losing airtime generally on programmes such as BBC’s Question Time where they often don’t appear, replaced, outrageously, by the Nigel Farage’s of this world (32 slots and counting), and even intentional comedians.

The 2010-15 period for many represented the perfect blend of Conservatism tempered by the Liberal Democrats; fiscal conservatism, social liberalism and pro-European leadership. They were heady days for moderate Tories if not for Liberal Democrat voters who felt betrayed on issues such as tuition fees. So here is an idea for you…

If the current Conservative government supported allegedly by a mere 70,000 Tory Party members continues to inflict damage on the country’s future, why don’t moderate Tories take over and re-brand the Liberal Democrats? They could strengthen its economic stance on government expenditure a la Nick Clegg and David Laws whilst pursuing a pro-EU, social liberal agenda. It would save the high risk option of setting up a new party and meet the demands of the vast majority of centrist voters. Potentially highly attractive to disenfranchised, moderate Labour MPs and their supporters too…

Umm…just a thought…just a thought…

The view through the window doesn’t look good. There are no votes in prisons and the conditions in which prisoners are held is deteriorating. And yet, our justice system and the way we treat offenders, often hidden from public view, is a crucial reflection of how civilised a society we are. And even for those who don’t care, better prisons mean less re-offending and genuine cost savings.

So where are we today? The prison estate is crumbling as real cuts bite to the bone. Add this to the list which includes social care, policing and local authority services generally. The pressures on prisons are exacerbated by rising numbers of prisoners, partly driven by the roundup of sexual offenders, harsher sentencing, so called ‘legal highs’ and falling prison officers.

A few facts from the Prison Reform Trust make startling reading. 68% of prisons are overcrowded with 21,000 prisoners still sharing cells for up to 23 hours a day. We have the highest imprisonment rate in Western Europe with 66,000 jailed in the year to June 2017. Yet 71% had committed a non-violent offence and 47% were sentenced to serve six months or less. Nearly 49% of adults are reconvicted within one year of release with an estimated cost to the economy of between £9.5-13 billion annually. Prison officers have fallen 23% in the last seven years whilst the prison population has risen. Assaults on staff across Britain’s 140 prisons rose by 143% in the last 4 years.

The latest report from HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales (and the people who fill this role are no soft touch) highlighted that the percentage of male prisoners held in good or reasonably good conditions has fallen from 78% to 49%. One could go on…

The solution partly lies in new prisons. They are being built but will have no impact on overcrowding until 2022 and, at the current rate of incarceration, a new programme will be needed from 2026. More prison officers are also required (a rapid recruitment drive is on after a realisation the fall in numbers has been disastrous but there is much further to go).

But what we really need to do is jail less people and of course review all those prisoners on shameful indeterminate sentences. Community sentencing is more effective than short prison terms at reducing reoffending, yet its use has nearly halved in the last decade. More of the former please.

Sorting out our jails and sentencing generally strengthens our society and at the same time actually saves money over the longer term. Of all the problems facing this country, this issue actually has identifiable solutions which can be implemented by even this current crop of politicians.

So Trump has spoken and his State of the Union Address wasn’t too bad. In fact it was quite good. Moderate in parts and optimistic in tone, his firm and sometimes dark beliefs were cloaked in unifying words. He stuck to his teleprompter and it worked. The immediate opinion polls were positive. The BBC called him the pugilist President. He would be pleased with that…

We await his next tweet barrage with glee but what if it doesn’t come? What if Trump  acquires a taste for broader popularity?

Let’s look at his record to date and then his speech. After a terrible start with too many mistakes to mention and wild invective, a powering economy and stock market with a record tax cut (the disastrous consequences will take time to arrive) are providing a major boost. It is the economy stupid even if Barack Obama should take the real credit for its current performance.

In his speech he boasted of record low African American unemployment, wants a deal for Dreamers (children of illegal immigrants) but not all family members and is tough on terrorism, drugs and gangs. Keeping Guantanamo open is hardly a vote loser and even the nonsensical Mexican wall which will now be paid for by the US (almost certainly courtesy of the Democrats…) keeps his core base happy. His commitment to infrastructure strikes a chord too.

The Democrats’ response? Churlishly sitting on their hands at too many points of his speech, hand wringing over immigration, not seeing that the game has changed… just look at Brexit and Europe as a whole driven to a frenzy by too much immigration. They could only find a Kennedy to respond averagely. Talk about back to the future…

The Democrats still don’t understand why Trump won the election and still have nothing to say to his core base. Egged on by a largely liberal media, they are too shrill and partisan in their opposition. Torn between the Left and centrists, they have no new alternative agenda and no leading light yet to seize a new presidential mantle. The Democrats should treat Trump more cleverly, embracing some of his more palatable initiatives. Hug your enemy close. If he blows up as they are so certain he will, then they will look magnanimous in victory.

Many issues may (hopefully) derail Trump but if he gets remotely clever, he will have the current Democratic opposition on the ropes. Those November midterm elections seem along way a way…