It is dangerous writing about budgets so soon after delivery since they can unravel with alarming speed but a US trip beckons so there is no alternative…

This was the Conservatives at their fiscal best. Cautious, caring, with some targeted extra expenditure, and sensible reforms to the tax system. All without losing sight of the grinding need to bring down the deficit. In contrast, Corbyn’s financially illiterate, ranting response demonstrates why the Opposition is so manifestly incapable of taking responsibility for the economic stewardship of the country.

Most notable budget positives were a continuing above-inflation rise in the national living wage, improvements in the delivery of Universal Credit, more investment in infrastructure and technological initiatives and modest further investment in the NHS. On housing, there was an impressive £44bn increase in loans and capital spending to increase the supply of housing by 300k units per year by the mid-2020s combined with the abolition of Stamp Duty for first-time buyers on properties under £300k. More complex reforms to land bank management and careful relaxing of pay levels for the retention and recruitment of key workers such as nurses, are rightly put to an enquiry. The list could go on. All sensible stuff and seemingly unlikely to unravel.

The economic record of the Conservative Government (sometimes part coalition) has largely been outstanding since 2010. Despite some missteps, a falling deficit, 3 million plus more jobs and the relative improvement of those most poorly paid have been excellent achievements. Perhaps underpinning the benefits of EU membership…

Austerity can and should now be gradually loosened, particularly where it is cutting into the bone of local services and this is starting to happen.

And yet, sadly, this was no radical budget and is unlikely to alter the current political narrative. The Chancellor today provided something for a lot of people but not enough for any one group and few initiatives will impact immediately. Headlines are partly dominated by the forecast of economic growth slowing sharply, restricting future room for manoeuvre. Brexit has apparently cost £700m so far with another £3 billion to come, only re-emphasising the scale of damage this decision, guided by so many Conservatives, is causing.

In the last piece of commentary a game changing budget was asked for. This was not it. The next rescue bid for this Government moves to EU negotiations. A more generous exit settlement combined with talks starting on a trade deal may provide the lifeboat needed. We shall see.

 

Caution isn’t working. Since the disastrous election, Theresa May has been walking on egg shells. Until recent scandals, the Cabinet remained largely unchanged despite grim behaviour from some members. Brexit negotiations have stalled despite a few U-turns here and there, and domestic policy has offered no refuge. Any initiatives at home have been tepid at best and gaffes dominate the political agenda. The government has seemed exhausted from the start, overwhelmed by the intricacies of leaving Europe.

The consequence? Theresa May is weaker than ever and Labour is stronger than ever; Brexit is heading over a cliff fuelled by internal Tory divisions. We await the skirmishes over the EU Withdrawal Bill with trepidation but Parliament, begrudgingly, has at least been given a vote on the final Brexit deal.

The Prime Minister has also lost control of events closer to home. Cabinet changes have been thrust upon her with replacements involving timid, minor reshuffles. She leads a divided party and a poor Cabinet with the media in full pursuit. What price Brexit for the Conservative Party now?

The consensus amongst those at the heart of government was that there would be no challenge to May or a consequent General Election for fear of something worse. That consensus is breaking down. Theresa May looks damaged and is almost certain to go sooner rather than later unless…unless…

Like a dying patient requiring resuscitation, she needs shock treatment. And that shock has to be self-delivered and involve the following: first, there must be a wholesale cabinet re-shuffle with those not up to the job (or disloyal) departing. There is no longer any room for the Boris Johnsons of this world. It is time to move a new generation of MPs into ministerial positions generally and the Cabinet in particular. Second, EU negotiations need to be kick started with the offer of a comprehensive financial settlement combined with full confirmation of the rights of EU citizens in the UK. Then a broad transition deal needs to be negotiated. Third, a sensational budget is required. This feels close to being the last throw of the dice. How about ‘war time powers’ to seize land for house building purposes and cutting the deficit through radical changes to some expensive pension tax reliefs (first mooted by George Osborne) which simply benefit the better off?

It is time Theresa May faced down the critics in her party and the media with bold actions. If it hastens her departure, then she can go with her head held high. Anything is better than death by a thousand humiliations and she just might rescue her government in the process.

 

Let’s be absolutely clear. A body responsible for passing laws which tells the rest of us how we should behave should be beyond reproach. A culture of sexism and boorish behaviour generally, often fuelled by too much alcohol, is at odds with this. That such an environment exists is beyond doubt, particularly when it is on show each week at Prime Minister’s Question Time.

The strange nature of a parliamentary career with unsociable hours, proximity to power, ruthless ambition combined with often humiliating disappointments, all lived in the public eye, is fertile ground for such a culture to flourish. But this is no excuse. It is vastly out of date. No wonder parliament is losing our respect with the consequence that not enough good people of both sexes are entering politics.

But the caveat must be that accusations need to be carefully verified. Some allegations are more serious than others and it is important individuals are not deemed guilty from the start. Witch hunts can have their own unfortunate consequences.

The solution to all this is to stop the abuse of power at source and clean up procedures so that unacceptable behaviours can be reported confidentially and without repercussions to an independent body in parliament. Business has been doing this for years. Amateur hour for politics is over. MPs need HR guidance and parties, of course, need their own governance to be enhanced. And ending subsidised alcohol in parliament wouldn’t go amiss either.

Theresa May started the luckiest of politicians and now must be the unluckiest. In tracking what may bring her government down, the first reason might have been a challenge to her leadership, the second was Brexit chaos and Labour’s more aggressive, astute opposition tactics. The third must now surely be these scandals. They have ensnared all parties equally but the impact is greater on the Conservatives as they are in power. More revelations are likely to lead to by-elections as politicians walk away from public humiliation and it will be this which will bring down a government already looking shaky.

Politics will be better off after the longer term repercussions of these scandals bear fruit. A new government operating under a reformed, healthier culture feels more imminent but it might not be a Conservative one.