It was a perfectly calibrated inauguration, both in content and tone, and each of these ingredients are equally important to ensure success over the next four years.

In a sea of articles, there were several excellent, pre-inauguration ones assessing the prospects of a Biden administration in yesterday’s Financial Times. My only caveat was that they were a touch on the gloomy side. ‘Awesome stakes’ and ‘Why the US republic came close to death’ led the headlines. Actually, I am more optimistic than that.

Martin Wolf, in particular, backed up his pessimistic thesis with statistics showing stark disparities across parties and ethnicity in attitudes to US politics. But there were positives in the detail. Donald Trump over-reached himself in the last days of his presidency, as did some of the populist Senators such as Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, who backed him. They should have known better and taken a steer from the (now) Minority Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, who has condemned Trump’s actions. I was struck by one survey which allows some optimism. There was virtually no support across all sections of society for the Capitol takeover. Approval of these actions, goaded by Trump, fell away with every day of media coverage showing the awful actions of an unhinged minority. Many, even those who initially felt Trump was a breath of fresh air, have had enough.

Undoubtedly, President Biden has a huge task ahead of him to unite the nation and bring some consensus back to US politics. Some policies, quickly introduced, such as a stimulus bill and stronger actions to control the pandemic, will do this. Others, for example re-joining the Paris Climate Agreement, will not, being the preserve of only those with liberal opinions.

What will unite the nation is a change of tone from this Democrat administration, which appeals to those who have felt constantly ignored by the ‘liberal establishment’. There is no better analysis of this than that contained in Professor Joan Williams’ book, ‘White Working Class, Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America’.

I have written about her analysis before as it is excellent. Essentially, those wrong-footed by populism should have seen it coming. Her thesis goes as follows:

Many people have conflated ‘working class’ with ‘poor’ but working class is, in fact, the elusive, purportedly disappearing middle class. They often resent the poor and the professionals alike. But they don’t resent the truly rich, nor are they particularly bothered by income inequality. Their dream is not to join the upper middle class, with its different culture, but stay true to their own values in their own communities – just with more money. White working class motivations are often dismissed as racist or xenophobic when they have their own class consciousness.

This is not to downplay the impact of racism or xenophobia but how the tone of politics, not simply policies, can help solve divisions where they exist, strengthening the US body politic in the meantime. If the Biden administration can empathise with how this section of voters feels, of being patronised and/or ignored by the establishment, and speak to these concerns, then it is half way there. Focusing on patriotism, individual freedoms and avoiding cultural wars, whilst of course tackling racism, will be key, combined with practical policies such as re-skilling parts of the workforce and embracing infrastructure investment. Interestingly, Keir Starmer is adopting the same approach to rejuvenating the Labour Party’s appeal here in the UK.

Even at 78, the politically centrist President Biden feels the right person to cross these divides. He, and other inauguration participants, made an excellent start yesterday.

Meanwhile, goodbye Former President Trump. One hopes you enjoy your time at Mar-a- Lago, spending more time with your lawyers…

Such predictions always require a review of how accurate 2020 ones were. Umm…not too bad actually. Seven out of nine were pretty much correct. A quick run through is provided below. But of course, there is a proviso. Such analysis all seems irrelevant in the face of Covid. Who got that right? This was the only issue that mattered in the end and affected almost everything.

Anyway, here we go:

In UK politics, the predictions for 2020 were that the Tories would get Brexit done, selling out Brexiteers where they had to (fishing?) but pursuing an English nationalist agenda, at least in tone. In the face of Tory dominance, Keir Starmer was Labour’s best bet and that the LibDems will be politically dead for a generation or permanently, requiring a new centrist party but not yet. Mostly true where Covid allowed.

In Scotland, there would be no second referendum (correct) as the SNP had peaked (looks like being horribly wrong…).

Overseas, Trump would escape the consequences of impeachment by the House of Representatives and emerge politically stronger to win the presidential election. So true until the impact of Covid unseated him. One silver lining in an otherwise bleak sky.

Cultural wars across the West would intensify as liberal cities versus conservative rural regions slugged it out. So true and set to intensify further.

So, to 2021 if we can face it…

It will be a relatively quiet year because of Covid.

Despite conjecture, Johnson will stay as PM to bed down Brexit and see out Covid. The self-styled ‘world king’ cannot walk away mid-battle. But backbenchers, recognising an increasingly effective, competitive Opposition, will be restless about his style and competence and the stage will be set for a possible 2022 departure. Any independent review of the management of the pandemic will not be kind and, even before the long-term consequences of Brexit come to fruition, another game changing political career will ultimately end in failure.

Despite the SNP surge there will be no Scottish referendum on independence. Johnson will block it.

Biden will be more radical and effective than expected, particularly as the Democrats have seized the Senate. I was struck by commentary that he and Nancy Pelosi are determined to make a real impact in the closing chapter of their careers. Climate change and infrastructure (ex-tackling Covid) will lead their agenda. Short of an unexpected crisis, there will be no radical change in foreign policy except repairing the well documented damage of Trump. It will be painful for the UK, however, as it watches the US re-embrace the EU.

Whatever the polls say about the attitudes of Republican voters, Trump is now a busted flush having over-reached himself since Election Day. He will not shape events in 2021 leaving the GOP to sort out what sort of Party they want to be. Bruising attempts to drop many aspects of Trump’s legacy will succeed but not wholly.

Macron will try and seize control of the leadership of Europe ahead of the 2022 Presidential election in France and to take advantage of Merkel stepping down. A close call, but he will not succeed. Germany, and whoever is the next Chancellor, will maintain their dominance.

Lastly, across borders, there will finally be progress in reining in the powers of social media companies. There is a real consensus emerging that the power of the likes of Facebook and Twitter has gone too far. Freedom of speech considerations are no longer the lazy default position they were and require legitimate scrutiny. Governments will gradually assert control; monopolies will be broken and social media companies will ultimately be held to account perhaps through similar responsibilities to those of publishers. As the tide of fake news and attempts to manipulate democratic processes surge, this cannot come soon enough.

Of course, progress in curtailing the pandemic will continue to ‘Trump’ news agendas. But there is one good thing about 2021. At least you can use that phrase without being sadly ironic…