Those who know Theresa May understand the Tory Party runs through her like words in a stick of rock. Her whole life has been devoted to Tory activism. Her diligence over constituency duties and campaigning is legendary. She is a Tory activist through and through.

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So to be the PM who destroys the Tory Party by splitting it down the middle in search of a Brexit solution in the so-called national interest would be anathema to her. It just won’t happen. She has a strong sense of public service and duty but to her the national interest is indivisible from the preservation of the Party she leads.

Corbyn is a socialist through and through. Socialism runs though him like words in a stick of rock. He hates the Tories with a passion and has campaigned against them (and often his own front-bench) for decades in search of a socialist nirvana. He now has the Labour Party where he wants it, for the quasi revolution he seeks. Helping the Tories on Brexit in the so-called national interest? It just won’t happen.

From Theresa May’s perspective, after the historic defeat of her Withdrawal Agreement, this is why plan B looks like plan A. It is also why Corbyn won’t participate in cross-party talks.

The Commons may take Brexit out of these party leaders’ hands but there is a problem here too. There is probably no cross-party Commons majority for any other solution to leaving the EU such as the ‘Norway’ option or a fully fledged embrace of the customs union. A majority probably exists to block a no-deal but that is it.

A General Election may well result in stalemate. Even if the Tories were lucky enough to win it, they would still be split. Labour’s own backbenchers are adrift of Corbyn’s team and it is unlikely a Labour majority would be large enough to sort this.

A People’s Vote may just deliver the same result or a marginal vote the other way leaving an even more divided nation. There is genuine concern about civil unrest.

The odds are still that Theresa May will deliver a Withdrawal Agreement at the very last minute shorn of the Backstop clause in its current form. Certainly, Brexit supporting Tories are beginning to realise this is their best hope.

Only an extension of Article 50 and a wholesale shake out of the leaders of both parties will lead to more radical solutions. My guess is that this won’t happen unless the country plunges fully into a constitutional crisis.

For all the criticism, there is still only one game in town currently and that is the Withdrawal Agreement. In delivering this, national interest and Party interest are one and the same…at least from Theresa May’s perspective…

Not much was surprising yesterday. The vote against May’s Brexit deal was a little larger than expected but only because none of the well-known number of Tories opposed to it and her leadership chose to abstain.

Corbyn’s opportunistic call for a no confidence vote was also no surprise.

The EU has also been clear that they won’t amend the Withdrawal Agreement in the face of such a defeat for the Government.

In response to all these familiar positions there was little change in the stance of the Labour or Conservative front benches. No wonder the public despair of politicians. No cross-party statesmanship from either May or Corbyn was on display to broker a compromise at a time of national crisis. We are drifting to disaster.

So the way forward?:

• Parliament should take control and May (still incredibly the only viable PM) should take instructions to look at amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement that could command a majority, such as staying within a customs union.
• The Government should probably ask for a delay in leaving the EU or even revoke Article 50 until a cross party solution of how to leave the EU can be found. Perilous for May but she now has little option.
• A new solution should then be put to Parliament and approved. If this can’t be done, a second ‘People’s Vote’ will be needed on the solution along with a decision to stay or leave the EU with no deal.
• If the Government won’t do this or the Opposition can’t compromise, time for a new leader (s). This will almost certainly bring the date of a General Election forward.

What a mess. The damage caused by Brexit is worse than even hardened Remainers predicted. The issue has split the country for a generation and most likely will speed our decline. Today, there are no silver linings to increasingly stormy clouds.

Brexit is such a mess. Anything could happen in the next few days/weeks so at this moment in time speculation about the future is pretty fruitless. Of course that won’t deter me or anybody else from trying… but it does today ahead of the Big Vote tomorrow.

Instead, it is worth focusing on a corner of government in the Ministry of Justice where, over the weekend, the highly able prisons minister, Rory Stewart, has just proposed a radical reform of sentencing. He is considering banning prison sentences of less than 6 months, an initiative long advocated by the Prison Reform Trust.

If the judicial system is a measure of how civilised a society we are then we don’t score well. It is failing across the board.

We have the highest imprisonment rate in Western Europe. In the last 30 years, the prison population has risen 70% to over 80,000 and yet there is no link between the size of the prison population and levels of crime according to the National Audit Office.

According to the Prison Reform Trust, prisons are in a mess. Rates of self-harm are at the highest level ever recorded and assaults on staff have tripled in the last 5 years. 46% of prisons are rated ‘of concern’ or ‘of serious concern’ by HM Prisons and Probation Service, also the highest on record. 81 out of 120 prisons in England and Wales are overcrowded yet the number of frontline operational prison staff was cut by 26% from 2010 to 2017. The government is only just starting to reverse this disastrous decline.

For those on either side of the sentencing debate, cutting short term sentences makes sense. Two thirds of prisoners given custodial sentences of less than 12 months reoffend and community sentences are proven to reduce reoffending more effectively, particularly for those who have a large number of previous offences or people with mental health problems. Yet their use has halved in only a decade. Crazy.

If this reform was implemented, it would reduce the current prison population by 3,500. More than half of the 86,000 offenders sentenced to immediate custody in England and Wales in 2017 were handed sentences of less than 6 months. The cumulative impact of such reform would be enormous.

If this initiative is implemented, it could transform our approach to managing the justice system with real benefits to society, saving money at the same time. Well done Rory Stewart for starting the debate. There is some good being done, albeit hidden, in a generally dire government transfixed by Brexit.

This time last year, eight predictions were made; five were correct, two were wrong and there was one score draw. Not bad versus the ‘paid commentariat’ so I venture out boldly to guide readers through 2019…umm…

Recapping predictions for 2018 provides a good insight into what might happen this year:

There was no General Election and Theresa May held on; the Liberal Democrats went nowhere; Angela Merkel announced her departure; Trump did better than expected in the midterms and, Mueller notwithstanding, looks set for an eight year term; the global economy remained strong. Only the Tories deteriorating electorally and Macron shining were wrong. Iran was the score draw.

So how does that leave us for 2019? Almost anything could happen, but here we go…

• Brexit. The self-harm will continue. The PM will get some version of her deal through the Commons (not first time round) as there is no consensus on any other solution. She will fight against an extension of the 29th March Brexit date as it imperils her premiership; but be prepared for a nail-biting finish. There will be no second referendum.
• Theresa May.  She will stay on as PM due to her resilience and the fact there is no immediate alternative. Last year’s leadership vote bought her 12 months. She will refresh her Cabinet and there will be no General Election. The Tories realise they need a stronger leader to reboot our relationship with the EU during the transition period so prepare for an earlier change than she wants in 2020.
• The Opposition. Labour will go nowhere under Corbyn who will stay on as leader. He and his front bench lack any credibility and have mostly played Brexit very badly. The public see this which is why incredibly the Tories continue to stay up in the polls, regardless of their behaviour.
• A new party? The Liberal Democrats are dead in the water. It is now or never for a new centrist party which will be launched in 2019. Despite a glittering start, it will not succeed in such a bi-polar political environment. We will end up with the politicians we deserve!
• Europe. In Germany, Merkel will go earlier than expected, possibly this year but certainly not in 2021 as she hopes. In a similar vein to May, there will be a time sooner rather than later when her party will have had more than enough. In France, Macron will never be popular but will recover his poise and stick broadly to his course. Despite his clumsy arrogance, my does Europe need him.
• North America. The Mueller enquiry will damage Trump but not fatally. He will not be impeached and stays on course for eight years…unless the Democrats pull their act together and nominate a credible opponent (Beto O’Rourke?)
• Economics. China will wobble economically but will manage to stay on course. Its hegemony will continue to grow buoyed by a fairly stable global economy (not necessarily in stock market terms) and Trump continuing to withdraw the US from the world stage.

There you go. Not exciting, not much fun, but plenty for commentators to get their teeth into. For those dismayed by UK politics in particular, or who are simply not interested, it may be time to take up a new hobby or, even better, move abroad…say…continental Europe?

Happy New Year!