The blog has been quiet for a while. Western politics generally has been transparent if unedifying, particularly from afar, and there has been little new analysis to add. This will change as we run run up to the two big events, elections in the UK and US. Although, one shouldn’t ignore Modi’s likely win in India and his increasingly autocratic tendencies. Or the potential success of the Far Right in Europe. But another time.

The past month has been spent on a mini sabbatical across South America with a few days in Miami at the end. It is sadly over but the travels were constantly fascinating for where else can you find extreme mountain, desert, and jungle conditions lying cheek by cheek. Oh, and great wine, of course…

And then the people. As I crossed Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, and now Columbia, what did I find from chatting to all and sundry?

The consistent themes in lively conversations were pressures from corruption, climate change, and migration, but also optimism as these countries increasingly embrace and celebrate social diversity.

First corruption, the fuel of inequality. Why don’t leaders just take 50 million dollars out of the system rather than billions and genuinely transform their country, leaving a legacy money can’t buy?

Argentina’s leaders, whether past military or civilian, with so much resource, have squandered billions over decades, buying off parts of the poorer electorate in the process to hold power. The banking system is screwed, and nobody keeps their money in the country if they can avoid it (even my guide had a Costa Rican bank account for tips!). One perfect example of corruption is the railway system. Sold off in the 1990s by the faintly ridiculous President Menem to corrupt property speculators, most of it was promptly shut down. With similar ‘initiatives’ elsewhere, you can really only travel long distances in South America by plane.

Many voters in Argentina have now turned to the extreme libertarian president Milei to unravel a bloated, bankrupt state, but he has no majority in Congress and frankly seems a bit of a joke. His victory according to those I spoke to comes out of despair…

Corruption in Chile is also rife, but with a better functioning economy based on a middle class, that has survived past army rule (although Pinochet’s son still runs land and companies given to him during his father’s reign!).  The current left-wing president, Boric, who, like Milei, can also get nothing past Congress, now has rumoured corruption problems of his own.

Columbia’s recent past is in many respects, surprisingly similar to Chile and Argentina. Often extreme left and right participants but with the added unique twist of a history rooted in drug related guerilla and paramilitary warfare, now hugely moderated, corruptly fight over the spoils of an otherwise upwardly mobile country. A corruption scandal involving the son and brother of the current, first leftist president Petro, an ex M-19 guerilla member, linked to guess what, drug related finance, is currently unfolding.

Almost without exception, everybody I have conversed with seems cynical and weary of politics and politicians, knowing that if anything gets done properly, it is unlikely to be by the government.

In passing, I mentioned to the guides on my tour that there was a huge corruption scandal in the UK. The deputy leader of the Labour Party allegedly defrauded the taxpayer of £1500 ten years ago. The incredulity on their faces…

Then climate change and migration. The continent in many places I visited is drying out and not simply due to the El Nino effect, as temperatures rise. Unseasonal water shortages are now common. Migration is also a huge problem, particularly from basket case Venezuela. Oh, for the firm smack of a Rwandan policy… It is causing pressures everywhere, as are economic disparities between countries generally. Fertile ground for the drugs trade, although its impact has fragmented and crossed borders, notably now causing chaos in Ecuador rather than Columbia.

Finally, diversity and inclusion, an upbeat note on which to end. All countries I visited have benefitted from protests by younger generations over the past two decades or so, sick of corruption, violence, and repression. Notably, in Chile and Columbia, in different measures, the fight back has led to a focus on women’s rights, gay rights, articulated through a vibrant arts scene, all driven by enlightened political discourse.

For all the lost opportunities and challenges this continent faces, the mood is largely upbeat, and mostly thanks to the efforts of the younger generation, the future looks bright.

South American politics comes to the USA…

A postscript on Miami… Whilst there the Trump ‘hush money’ court case began in New York plus Trump’s challenge to guarantee full presidential immunity unfolded in the Supreme Court. Incredible that this man is still ahead in the polls with the latest one giving him a 6% lead. Only the hush money trial will now be heard before the election, so you really have to hope it resonates and that in the end Americans vote with their heads not their hearts. Otherwise, we are all up the proverbial creek without a paddle…