The greased piglet, as Johnson is unpleasantly nicknamed, has done it again. At first sight, and it is only first sight, there is not quite enough in Sue Gray’s report to remove him, and the moment of maximum danger has passed for the time being. The Metropolitan Police have some responsibility for this. Their confused, belated response in deciding to undertake a criminal investigation into parties at No. 10 on the cusp of the report’s publication has dulled its impact. It should surely mark the end of Metropolitan Police chief, Cressida Dick’s career. Her nine lives are over.
A temporary reprieve only…
In the meantime, Tories, even this lot, know how dangerous it can be to try and remove a wounded sitting Prime Minister who is still standing. The trauma of a no confidence vote and/or a leadership contest can derail a Party in office, particularly when there is no clear successor. There is still a pandemic to fight, let alone a cost-of-living crisis and potential hostilities on the Russian/Ukrainian border. Tearing the government apart now with Johnson digging in would look self-indulgent at best, hugely irresponsible at worst.
But be in no doubt, the findings of this report are damning. Johnson’s premiership was always going to be a high wire act. The chaos surrounding this most amoral and unTory of Tory Prime Ministers was well sign-posted. However, his unique public persona (albeit a fake one from reality) and campaigning style also allowed him to reach parts of the electorate Conservatives normally find hard to reach. His job was to see off Corbyn and get Brexit done. Mission accomplished.
In the light of these revelations, the very traits that have carried Johnson’s political career to date now look like a millstone round his neck. Loose with the truth, a belief that rules apply to other people, poor attention to detail, chaotic in his private life, climbing to the highest of offices without any guiding philosophy except to reach and stay on top make his continued leadership a disaster.
The public everywhere cannot forgive and forget the parties in Downing Street. It has ‘cut-through’ as they say even though the blatant conflicts of interest surrounding the funding of the redecoration of Johnson’s Downing Street flat often seem a more serious long-term threat to good governance. Voters are angry, as every opinion poll confirms, and Johnson’s dishonest, wayward personality traits will be seen through the prism of this emotion. There is plenty of fodder for his long-standing opponents but now also to new Tory and floating voters alike and it will be this that does for him in the end.
And if Johnson clings on, those in Cabinet seeking to replace him will be tainted by his reputation. Theresa May’s intervention in parliament today about the lack of integrity at the heart of Downing Street was brutal and impressive in its frankness. Would any Cabinet member have the guts to share these same sentiments in public? Highly unlikely.
Turning briefly to Labour, Starmer’s Opposition is not the calibre of Blair’s Opposition, although Starmer himself is gaining authority. Labour do not have Scotland either and a vote for them will be open to the accusation it lets the SNP into UK government by the back door. Combined with a lack of bounce back from the LibDems, a hung parliament is still likely under Johnson or indeed any successor. But what a fall from grace. The Tories were all but certain to win a 2023/24 General Election. No longer.
‘Red Wall’ Tories are angry, more liberal Tories in the south disillusioned by this government’s populist stance. Johnson’s strength was being the best of both worlds electorally. Now he is the worst of both worlds. The damage has been done however long he holds on and rightly so.