Leaving the woes of the UK behind this week, a focus on the US provides the startling fact that after winning four congressional ‘by-elections’ and some indications of strong national opinion polling, Trump remains tenaciously popular regardless of his chaotic presidency and sometimes appalling tweets. Actually, this is of little surprise since the circumstances that led to his election were never going to dissipate quickly. The political force of nature that is Trump requires an opposing force, one that provides a clear alternative from the centre ground.

The Democrats are in a mess. They still can’t come to terms with their presidential loss. Bernie Sanders remains popular and there seems no substitute. Reading mailings from Democrats Abroad, there is a continuing sense of injustice at events but no new leaders or policies. An FT commentator rightly said the Democrats have rich backers wanting to keep the status quo but issues such as disparity of wealth and lack of opportunity in an era of stagnant living standards require real economic change, not simply protecting the vested interests of the public sector and trade unions on the one hand and those of wealthy backers on the other. Suffocating political correctness is no substitute either, partly responsible for Trump’s victory in the first place.

What is required are brave politicians staking a claim to the centre/centre right ground whilst shaking off vested interests from both sides if it can be done.  It would of course have to involve an appeal to the rust belt states and those sections of society losing out from globalisation more comprehensively than in the past. It needs a new generation of presidential candidates without baggage speaking bluntly to voters and unlike Obama rolling up their sleeves to ‘mix it’ with Congress.

That takes us back to Europe. In a very different political system Macron provides some lessons. He has built a new platform in the centre, commanding the French political stage in an era of political disillusionment through a tough and tender message; legitimate, long overdue economic reform combined with protecting the poorest, social liberalism, support for those established institutions which are working, an emerging canny foreign policy and rooting out political corruption (four ministerial resignations so far!). Combined with Merkel, there is a possibility of a rejuvenated continental Europe and EU, one which will be harder for the UK to negotiate with until there is a recalibration of British politics.

In the meantime, in the UK and US, the common theme of populism both left and right drives the agenda; an unintentionally ironic special relationship founded on support for Trump, Corbyn, Sanders and Brexit.

 

 

This has been an awful few weeks with terror attacks and the tragic, seemingly preventable Grenfell Tower fire. Such horrors, of course, demand a political response and it is a challenge for politicians to strike the right balance when the scale and frequency of events is almost overwhelming.

Despite media criticism, mostly they have got it right but there is much to do and the past few weeks in several ways are speeding up a desire for a new narrative in politics. Gone is the reluctant acceptance of austerity, as the belief becomes more widespread that sacrifices over the past decade have been unfairly shared.

Consequently, there is growing support for the Labour Party’s priorities. Corbyn rides high after the election result, whilst unsurprisingly Theresa May is a diminished figure with many predicting her demise, some say imminently. The Queen’s Speech simply confirms her vulnerability. So this week’s comment is an attempt to put some perspective into aspects of political discourse.

First, Labour’s economic priorities. Scandalously under analysed during the election, they need to be challenged as they will ultimately impoverish the very people they seek to support. The Conservative Party must win back the economic argument for backing business, keeping taxes as low as possible and helping people with their aspirations. None of this involves a lack of focus on protecting the vulnerable. The Conservatives simply need a fresh approach, making the case for the above, combined with thoughtful arguments for long-term investment in public services in return for legitimate reform.

And, for all the disastrous missteps Theresa May has made, there is no credible successor yet visible and until there is, she should stay in place. Those commentators who demand her head now are mistaken. Her faults have been endlessly explored but she often starts from good intentions and she should be allowed time to develop a new narrative on Europe, adopting a more consensual, even at times cross-party approach to the terms of Brexit. She should also be allowed to pursue her genuine desire to make some aspects of capitalism work better for all stakeholders which at least, if poorly presented in the past, touches on the more legitimate aspects of Corbyn’s agenda.

We certainly do not need another election when the Conservative Party as a whole could be rightly blamed for the current mess we are in. Those hoping to lead the Conservative Party should use their time wisely to work on a new narrative; re-balancing the impact of austerity, investing in the fabric of the country and embracing a new partnership with Europe. It says a good deal when Ken Clarke, aged 76 and Father of the House, still often remains the most credible voice of moderate, pro-European, but often radical Conservatism, a model for future leadership candidates to contemplate…

Another week in politics, another political earthquake. Last night’s result was a disaster for the Conservatives and almost entirely self-inflicted. A terrible campaign with no arguments made for why we deserve to be re-elected. It simply confirms the damage of Brexit. Conservatives created the referendum in the first place causing chaos and then responded tactically with demands for a hard departure from the EU. No wonder the ‘strong and stable’ mantra wasn’t enough and we are ironically left with a weak government and even more economic uncertainty. Despite the best of intentions in sorting out the mess her Party bequeathed her, for Theresa May it might be a fatal blow as the backlash of running a thin, personalised campaign overwhelms her.

As for Labour, a begrudging well done Corbyn for it is he alone who carried the campaign supported by a highly nimble campaigning team (I am not talking about his front bench…). But a 40% share of the vote for pure socialism is alarming and confirmation that there is little understanding of the country’s indebtedness. Austerity may well be dead for now until the next economic crisis. As for young voters, they can’t complain their votes are wasted. Tuition fees helped bring down the Lib Dems, ended Nick Clegg’s parliamentary career and now with a 70% plus turnout almost brought Labour victory. Quite an impact.

So what lies ahead. Well there are two silver linings. The SNP’s case for a second referendum was soundly defeated and must now be on the back burner. R.I.P. Alex Salmond. Second, a softer Brexit is now also far more likely, let alone the possibility of another vote on the terms of departure, which is the first good news on Europe in a long time.

As for the Conservative Party…. it is simply too disliked. The rebranding started half heartedly (and cynically) by Cameron but never finished must begin again but differently. It is time for moderate, centre-left Conservatives to re-assert themselves and bring out the softer side of a Party made up of many good people. There are interesting times ahead…..