Incredible. Speaking to senior Tory MPs at the weekend, they think Johnson is done for and give him six months at most. Spreading faster than this depressing and worrying Omicron virus, the decay around him is everywhere. Chaotic, not serious, not really understanding what being a Tory in government means, his colleagues have had enough. Johnson’s one saving grace was his election winning ways. These have deserted him. Not even a 60% Brexit voting North Shropshire was biddable to his former charms.

A grim end to the year…

And worst of all for the Tories, they are collectively tainted with sleaze and incompetence combined with the growing factionalism of liberalism versus lockdown. The resignation of the awful, self-styled British bulldog, Lord Frost, is a hammer blow to Johnson’s authority but also the unity of purpose this Tory government was meant to represent. Brexit is becoming so yesterday, even if its full impact has yet to be felt, leaving a vacuum in its place. And make no mistake about it. Those who voted for the chancer Johnson as leader must take full responsibility for creating this most unTory of governments. It was an accident waiting to happen with potentially dire consequences.

There is not much to amuse people nowadays but jokes at the expense of today’s administration is the easiest way to elicit a laugh. Its death may be a long time coming but widely shared ridicule is often fatal.

So Johnson’s relationship with his back benchers is irreparable, his collapsing reputation rightly dragging the whole Party down. With an open goal to aim at, Keir Starmer, a more serious man for serious times, may be gaining some credibility.

That just leaves the economy. Oh dear. Inflation has hit 5%, brutal tax rises kick in next Spring and more Covid restrictions risk derailing economic recovery. Standards of living are likely to fall and further EU single market barriers kick in next year too.

This blog’s analysis of what might bring Johnson down is proving correct but certainly not the timescale. And the poison has spread to the Tories as a whole as was always the danger.

Johnson, of course, could still survive. Febrile Tory back benchers, even senior ones, are not always the best guide to the future and the power of incumbency should not be underestimated. But ultimately, the long-term damage has been done.

But look forward to next year when Omicron is in retreat, a chastened Tory Party, possibly led by a grown up, raises its game in the face of a more confident and capable Opposition.

Politics in 2022? One could almost feel optimistic…

Have a safe and merry Christmas in these challenging times.

Our Company, JPES Partners, is mostly staffed by younger people. They have embraced the need to be vaccinated and several of us have had our boosters, but not in a Johnsonian ‘boosterism’ way…Throughout the pandemic their diligence in meeting client needs and keeping activities going successfully has been really excellent. Indeed heart-warming, as is their concern for colleagues and their families in these challenging times.

So it is with a heavy heart that we have decided to cancel our Christmas Party next week in favour of much more modest, socially distanced festivities. We simply do not want to expose employees unnecessarily to the dangers of having to self-isolate over the Christmas break. We all want to enjoy this time of the year avoiding, as much as possible, putting older relatives at any sort of risk. We have our Company offsite at the end of January and will reschedule it to then, hoping that the latest wave of this damn coronavirus is receding by this time.

These decisions were clear-cut. It feels like the best balance of common sense and keeping the show on the road. So, we ask ourselves, why is it so difficult for the Government?

It is because there is a moral vacuum at the heart of this administration. As written many times before, Johnson sets the tone and he is a chancer, a rule breaker, for rules apply to other people not him. Economical with the truth but having connected with voters with his superficial charisma, he feels entitled to ‘wing it’. Well, that is not good enough and certainly not in a Prime Minister.

He is being found out through the actions of his staff and his own actions. It does not look pretty. Blatantly misleading statements about parties in Downing Street last December, the excruciating recording of a mock press conference addressing them, on top of the Owen Paterson affair and the funding of Johnson’s Downing Street flat is adding up to be quite a disaster. The government is losing its moral authority, just when it needs it to manage the Omicron wave of the virus. And the rot starts from the top.

Today, Downing Street cancelled its Christmas Party in a wholly inconsistent way to the alleged activities of last December. One doubts there were moral dilemmas in reaching this decision. It was simply a tactical ploy to try and pour water on indignant flames.

Too little, too late. It is time the Tory Party as a whole fully woke up to the flaws in the man leading it before voters do. Otherwise, there won’t be many future Happy Christmases for this Government.

This blog has consistently argued that another Johnson led General Election victory is highly likely. The Tories feel like the only game in town as Keir Starmer has limped on as a relatively honest but mediocre Labour leader and the LibDems mostly fade into the background.

Indeed, any straws in the wind to date hinting at Tory vulnerabilities relate only to Johnson himself, and his relationship with his backbenchers, not the Tories as a whole.

And yet…and yet…

One ingredient for a Labour revival is the credibility of the Labour front bench. Starmer botched the last shadow cabinet reshuffle providing his awful Deputy Leader, Angela Rayner, (directly elected so cannot be fired), with a factional victory of sorts. The end result was some minor improvements but not enough and Starmer looked weak in the process.

Where were the emerging or existing Labour Big Beasts? They needed to be front and centre to make progress. The first reshuffle mostly didn’t uncover them when they would have been of real benefit, particularly as the Tories are hardly overwhelmed in this department.

So, this week’s latest reshuffle is interesting. Yvette Cooper finally returns as Shadow Home Secretary (replacing the largely unimpressive Nick Thomas-Symonds), the highly economically literate Rachel Reeves stays as Shadow Chancellor with her authority enhanced, the sharp and, importantly, centrist northerner, Lisa Nandy, moves from the Foreign Office (off you go, the overrated David Lammy to this now backwater) to challenge Gove at the Orwellian ministry of Levelling Up. Then there is the shrewd Pat McFadden supporting Reeves at the Treasury and a rising star, Wes Streeting, goes to Health. An added bonus is that former leader, Ed Miliband, a reminder of past failings, has had his portfolio reduced. Not too painful but why doesn’t he go off and run a mid-sized NGO whilst his more talented older brother runs a larger one?

This is the reshuffle Keir Starmer always wanted and he has now got it. And it has just arrived as the Tories are wilting with a somewhat underpowered, accident-prone Cabinet.

In the last blog the three-pronged assault on Johnson’s, and possibly the Tories’ grip on power was unhappy Tory backbenchers, a faltering economy and Labour getting its act together. The latter two were not happening. With this reshuffle, Labour’s performance has the potential to improve, and the score has now moved from one out of three to perhaps one and a half.

The Tories, and Johnson in particular, should therefore start feeling a little nervous. Coronavirus, even Omicron style, is unlikely to provide enough distraction to avoid a decent challenge being noticed by voters from this now more talented Labour front bench.

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