The by-election defeats were ‘priced-in’ we were told. Almost everything seems to be nowadays. The resignation of the Tory Party Chairman, Oliver Dowden, this morning was not. And this latter event is the most dangerous for Johnson, even as the scale of defeats in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton sink in.

Even more dangerous than the by-election results for Johnson is the resignation of the Tory Party Chairman

The Tories should have moved earlier on Johnson and are now paying the price for their inaction. When 41% of Tory MPs voted against Johnson’s leadership a couple of weeks ago, senior figures should have told him to go. The problem is ‘the men in grey suits’ don’t really exist anymore. Sometimes mediocre, sycophantic cabinet ministers who rely solely on Johnson’s patronage, haven’t got the guts. Self-interest has always been a key driver of senior politicians but not the only one as it seems to be now. Perhaps Oliver Dowden has broken that spell.

Voters’ views of Johnson are now baked in after a catalogue of misjudgments, and the Tories cannot win with him as leader. They recognised his talents but also knew his flaws and that these would do for him in the end. That point was reached some while a go. The problem is that Johnson’s leadership is infecting the Tories as a whole and opinions about them and their failure to remove him are also becoming baked in. A pincer movement is underway; Labour in the North, LibDems in the South. Things look bleak for the government today.

Still fighting Brexit, chaos over the cost-of-living crisis with incoherent, often regressive tax policies worthy of a blog on their own and U-turns galore, this Johnson led government is in a mess. Add in the ugly policy of expelling illegal immigrants to Rwanda, threatening to break international law over the Northern Ireland Protocol and the resignation of the Prime Minister’s ethics advisers and the scene has been set to upset different groups of voters everywhere.

There is a battle needed for the soul of the Tory Party and this can probably only be undertaken in opposition. In the meantime, there are plenty of successors to the current incumbent. How much is left for them to take over and any chance of rebuilding the Tory Party to minimise its shrinkage at the next General Election is all about acting now. It all feels a bit like Groundhog Day.

It was a pleasure attending a reception this week celebrating the Prison Reform Trust’s 40th anniversary. For those who don’t know about this organisation, it was set up in 1981 to inform and influence public debate on prison conditions and the treatment of prisoners, amidst concerns about a projected prison population of 48,000 by 1984.

A cause worth supporting

It was apparently only meant to be a temporary enterprise to stop the growth in prison numbers and improve prison conditions. Incredibly, with the prison population in England and Wales now exceeding 82,000 and projected to rise to 86,400 by 2023, the charity remains as important to civic society today as it was then.

It has three clear objectives:

• reducing unnecessary imprisonment and promoting community solutions to crime;
• improving treatment and conditions for prisoners and their families;
• and promoting equality and human rights in the justice system.

There are no votes in prisons and most of the public underestimate the severity of sentencing practices. We have the highest imprisonment rate in Europe and yet there is no link between the prison population and levels of crime according to the National Audit Office. Sentences of over 10 years have increased by 250% since 2008. Over 28,000 people alone are held in custody before a trial.

Other statistics are also depressing; over 60% of offenders are sent to prison at great cost for non-violent offences, 40% for less than 6 months despite the fact that such sentences (rather than community sentences) are particularly ineffective for persistent offenders and people with mental health problems. This touches on who we jail. Three in ten offenders have learning disabilities, one in three have serious drug addiction issues. 52% of people surveyed by inspectors in 2020/21 reported mental health problems but only 22% said it was easy to see a mental health worker.

Finally, the state of prisons; 29% of prisons were rated of concern or serious concern by HM Prisons and Probation Service. Two-thirds of prisons are over-crowded and there are 10% fewer prison staff than there were in 2010. More than 20% of prison deaths were due to self-inflicted injuries, six times higher than in the general population. There were 55,000 reported incidents of self-harm in 2020 alone.

Interestingly, the Prison Reform Trust is not only supported by so-called liberals but also by many moderate Tories such as Douglas Hurd, Edward Garnier and David Gauke. And its Chair is James Timpson, brother of a Tory MP, Edward Timpson, who employs many ex-offenders across his family-owned retail chain of 1500 shops. He has rightly earned his OBE!

It is an invaluable organisation, shining a light on an area of society easy to ignore. Our civilisation should be partly judged by how we treat offenders for this reason alone. And it is common sense to focus on solutions to crime which are cost effective both in terms of avoiding incarceration in the first place and reducing re-offending.

Public discourse on our justice system needs to improve because the system is in a mess. Fat chance with populism in vogue in so many aspects of public life. That is why it is so easy to support this charity which shines a light on hidden areas of concern such as the state and use of our prisons.

It is not operation ‘Save Big Dog’, it is operation ‘Save the Tory Party’. Johnson survived yesterday’s vote but only just and the damage has been done as it was for Thatcher, Major and May before him. He should go and go quickly so the Tory Party can rebuild itself free from the drama, chaos and partisanship of his premiership although it may be too late for the next election.

Johnson’s luck has run out…

What has struck this blog about support for Johnson amongst his fellow MPs was how transactional it always was, even in Johnson’s heyday. Few actually liked or trusted him but if he could see off Labour and get Brexit done, that was enough. The depressing aspect of this view was how much it underestimated the damage Johnson could do whilst being PM and, actually, how inaccurate this analysis was in the first place.

With confidence, almost any Tory leader could have seen off Corbyn second time around, perhaps with a smaller majority, and getting Brexit done by breezily incorporating the Northern Ireland Protocol regardless of previous commitments not to and then attempting to renege on it has been a disaster.

There is also Johnson’s broader legacy. Pushing ‘partygate’ partly to one side, Johnson has never considered the consequences of his actions because it has always been about Johnson, not the Tory Party or, more importantly, the country. Jesse Norman MP, in yesterday’s letter to his constituents, withdrawing his support for Johnson’s leadership, gave his reasons brutally; a ‘culture of casual law-breaking’, ‘putting the Union gravely at risk’, keep changing the subject ‘to create political and cultural dividing lines mainly for your advantage, at a time when the economy is struggling, inflation is soaring, and growth is anaemic at best’. Finally, a Rwanda policy ‘ugly, likely to be counterproductive and of doubtful legality’.

This deeply ‘unTory’ of Prime Ministers has waged wars against the establishment, crossed lines on matters of fundamental morality and sought cultural splits, aided by some distinctly dubious No.10 advisers, that are pointlessly divisive and wholly unacceptable to moderate voters. Combine these with basic incompetence in day to day governing with no guiding philosophy and it has all become a toxic mix.

It is time for the Tory Party to reinvent itself with a new leader and, in doing so, free itself from the obsession with Brexit, that one doubts Johnson ever really believed in. It is time for a more coherent economic policy, it is time to think longer-term and more strategically and raise the basic standards of government.

One reads that any future leadership battle will be a re-run of Brexit. Why is this? If it about this one issue, then the Tory Party should step aside not just Johnson. A new Tory leader should form a government based on core Tory values discussed in earlier blogs, seeking a level of consensus which has led to it being the most successful political party in democratic history. There would be nothing wrong with a Remain voting new leader (remember Major, Cameron, May?) who knowing Brexit was done sought to build bridges with Europe, helping deal with issues such as illegal immigration for example, without picking populist fights for short-term tactical advantage.

There is a war in Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis, a broad-based threat to the Union and some real long-term, deep seated economic concerns. Many in the Tory Party could manage these challenges shrewdly and, crucially, with more integrity than the current incumbent.

Johnson’s authority has been shredded by this far worse than expected vote. It is a lame duck administration at the mercy of its backbenchers and providing an open goal for the opposition benches. It is time for a change of leader and quickly if the Tories are even to begin to recover in time for the next General Election.