Answer: when Britain is ‘negotiating’ with the EU.

If the leading figures in the Brexit campaign had any conscience (Cambridge Analytica?), they would be filled with remorse. With this latest transition agreement, ‘take back control’ has morphed into ‘same control, no input’. In initial negotiations, the UK wanted no exit payments, held out on EU citizens’ rights, demanded no freedom of movement or ECJ jurisdiction; more recently we wanted our fisheries policy immediately freed from the EU. Oh, and the transition period, a post referendum invention in the first place, needed to be flexible in case we weren’t ready. All this was ignored.

These are just a few items and you could go on. The one major concession is that we can start pursuing our own trade deals before the end of the transition period. Wow. I look forward to reading about the heroic actions of our Trade Secretary, Liam Fox. He, who loves all things American and free trade – yet accuses businessmen of spending too much time on the golf course – will be discussing trade agreements with the protectionist, golf loving President Trump…

Crucially, in the area of financial services, the EU is not committing to ‘equivalency’ from a regulatory perspective, which would have created a free market. The attraction of Frankfurt and Paris biting into this most lucrative of sectors is simply too great for much compromise at this stage. Then, of course, there is Northern Ireland.

Let’s be clear. A deal will eventually be done. But at what expense? What we know is that the terms will be nowhere near the promises made during the campaign to leave the EU.

In some senses that doesn’t matter. The aim of Brexiteers is to achieve sovereignty at any price, even though this is a complete fiction in a globalised world. The economic and social damage to the UK will be slow but cumulative. Boiling frogs come to mind. No wonder the young are angry but they have no monopoly over this emotion!

There is a small hope of initiatives developing to reverse the referendum, or stay within the customs union/single market before the transition period is concluded; but the price paid has to be more visible than it will seem then.

The course is set and unless the consequences are immediately disastrous or there is a long-shot, fundamental realignment of British politics, we leave the EU fully on 31 December 2020. Every promise made by those who wanted to Leave will then be carefully weighed and measured for future political combat. Those leading figures in the Brexit campaign had better be prepared.

 

In China, Russia and the US, populist male leaders with too much testosterone dominate the political landscape with potentially dire consequences. Russia under Putin rots from within (and now seemingly from Salisbury…), China under the new ‘president for life’ Xi aims for world hegemony whilst the US under Trump, with much macho swagger, is unintentionally eviscerated. Never has a stable world order for decades looked so threatened.

Then in Europe populist leaders are triumphing to various extents in Italy, Austria, Hungary and Poland to name but a few countries. Extremists are on the march and clinging on to Merkel and Macron feels like a thin line of defence. The UK sits on the side-lines with its own populist obsession of Brexit. It is starting to look somewhat benign…

Why are we at this point? Commitment to democracy, even in those countries who practice it, is in decline. A recent article in The Times makes grim reading. A fifth of Spanish and Greek citizens apparently believe representative democracy is a bad way of governing, 40% of British millennials no longer think democracy vital and only 30% of American millennials believe it is ‘essential’ to live in a democracy. Trusting the younger generation seems a bit precarious…

Democracy is often taken for granted and its perceived benefits are increasingly doubted. Over-promising, under-achieving politicians, greedy voters and cultural wars fuelled by excessive immigration and disparities in wealth created by globalisation, are the cause. Yet in many respects people have never had it so good.

The solutions? Brave politicians telling it as it is, engagement with younger voters, enforcing the rule of law vigorously in Europe (a key role for the EU here), understanding the cultural impact of high levels of immigration without calling everybody racists and standing up to Xi and Putin in particular on the world stage.

Phew! A huge ask, the detail of which cannot be addressed in a blog. But if we lose our determination to defend democratic principles through open, honest debate and leadership, the strong (mostly) men will win and we will all regret the consequences. Of course, by then, it will be too late even for the young.