If you absorb media content, the world is an unhappy place; global warming, the Ukraine war, the march of the far-right in Europe and the resurgence of Trump in America. Closer to home, we have rail strikes, doctors’ strikes, faltering public services including an increasingly unstable NHS and an unhappy body politic generally.

Clouds can have silver linings…

None of these issues and their day-to-day impact should be underestimated, particularly with the hottest July on record, but as we head off on our holidays it would be wise to consider some positives, if for no other reason, to keep us sane…

Wind and solar power produced a record amount of the world’s electricity last year, and this year is set to be a new record. Rising temperatures and their impact are creating a sense of climate change urgency amongst the world’s largest polluters, notably China and America. Just this week, a new global coalition was formed to specifically cut methane emissions, which cause one-third of global warming. There are now more protected areas across land and ocean due to cross-border agreements than ever before, and all polls point to fewer climate change deniers generally. The direction of travel is reassuring, if not the speed.

The rise of the far-right in Europe is worrying but not inevitable. For example, in last Sunday’s Spanish elections, the hard-right Vox Party almost halved its seats in parliament and consequently is not in a position to support a right-wing government as a junior coalition partner. Trump’s legal woes mount, and this blog is still firmly of the belief he will not stand or, if he does, will not be able to beat even the ageing Biden. The pretty vile deSantis, potentially worse than Trump, is also in trouble. Finally, whilst the tragedy of the Ukraine war continues, Putin’s reign looks more unstable than ever and who would have bet on a stalemate with Russia when this conflict began? And with Turkey now dropping its objections, NATO welcomes its two new members, Sweden and Finland. There are no benefits to Russia from its actions in Ukraine.

In the UK, most public sector workers including nurses have settled their pay claims with the government. Sunak is a massive improvement on Johnson and Truss. The Tories’ period of madness seems to be over and Labour under Starmer looks ready to govern fairly competently if the current desire for change becomes irresistible. The electorate actually has a choice this time!

So, as we head off on our summer breaks, there are some reasons to be optimistic which even this blog has noticed…

Happy holidays!

It could have been worse for the Tories. They are mostly not safe anywhere but clung on in Uxbridge, where the single issue of extending the Ultra Low Emissions Zone saved them.

But across the three by-elections, the Tories’ share of the vote dropped by 21% in line with polls. It is not a reflection on Sunak, more popular than his Party, but austerity followed by a failing, divisive Brexit, followed by the chaotic amorality of Johnson, followed by the car-crash premiership of Truss. As this blog has written several times, Sunak’s competent premiership has come too late to rescue this discredited, over-long period of Tory rule.

Voters have had enough… Tories are mostly not safe anywhere...

The simple question to ask voters after 13 years is, do you feel the country is in a better place than in 2010? On current evidence, the answer is resoundingly no, even if there are some well-hidden achievements along the way.

But the Westminster bubble grinds on, turning its excoriating gaze onto Labour (the LibDems can be parked for another day). What do they stand for? Will the economy be safe in their hands? How green will they be and at what cost? How will they improve public services when there is no money? How will they deal with trade unions and their left-wing generally? Will they cuddle up to the EU and, if so, make a meaningful pact with it? Ultimately, is Starmer political enough? All legitimate questions, but today, they miss the point.

It is anybody but the Tories and Labour remain on course to win the next General Election, probably with an overall majority. In fact, in some ways, the results are extra bad news for the Tories in that the London result will encourage Starmer’s safety first strategy. It doesn’t really matter whether he gains power through enthusiasm or stay-at-home Tory voters. The die has been cast.

As for the Conservative Party? They will have some real soul-searching to do in Opposition. Will they move to the Right? Probably, if their membership and some unpleasant right-wing factions have anything to do with it. But the country is screaming out for a sensible centre-right alternative, and this is where this Party should lie, like it used to, if it is to oust a future Labour government quickly.

If there is one thing that would drive this deeply anti-Brexit blog into the arms of Brexiteers, it would be the rise of what appears to be soft fascism across Europe.

The outlook does not look good. The far-right are prospering everywhere.

In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s hard right coalition led by her arch-conservative Brothers of Italy party took power last October and is now in the process of trying to impose its conservative moral values on the population. For example, as reported in the Financial Times yesterday, they do not believe same sex couples should raise children. Last week, the birth certificate of a son born to a lesbian couple was annulled by a Padova city prosecutor with backing from the minister for family and birth rates. The interior ministry has ordered city mayors to stop automatically issuing birth certificates recognising same-sex couples as children’s legal parents, leading to lengthy legal disputes. This is only the start, one suspects, of a further erosion of gay rights.

Europe’s worrying drift to the far-right…

In France, the National Rally under Marine Le Pen has hit 24% in the polls. And this rise will only be further fuelled by the riots taking place there. She leads opinion polls in her response to them and is preparing yet another run, her fourth, at the presidency in 2027. Nobody is betting that next time, she isn’t in with a strong chance of winning.

In Germany, the hard-right, Putin sympathising AfD has hit 18% in the polls, achieving third place and snapping at the heels of the Social Democrats. In Sweden, the hard-right Sweden Democrats are in third place at 18%, and its equivalent in Spain, the Vox Party, are in a similar position. Then, in Hungary, Orban and his Fidesz party, who have governed since 2010, continue to gradually erode press freedoms and the independence of the judiciary, flouting the EU in the process.

There are various factors driving this trend. Immigration, inflation, weak economies, and expensive green policies are all a boost to anti-establishment, populist parties, even if, in the end, they are usually far worse at governing than moderates. The implosion of centre-right parties is also helping drive politics to the extremes.

But for all the frustrations of modern life today, there is no excuse for embracing extremism, particularly with Putin on your doorstep.

Wearingly, and with some success, hard-right, populists have never given up, even when they initially lose at the ballot-box. Whether it is Le Pen in France or even Trump in the US, it is a constant whack-a-mole game to defeat them. Democrats everywhere cannot let their guard down.

Europe certainly benefits from the largely moderating influence of the UK. It would have been invaluable if we had remained a member of the EU. We have much work to do to help keep our neighbours on a centrist path, even if nowadays from the sidelines.