For political geeks or those who simply care about democracy, 2024 will be a huge year. More than 2 billion people across 50 countries will go to the polls and the consequences for many will reverberate for a generation. Of course, some of these elections are more free than others.
As one gears up nervously to make predictions for the year ahead, time to review this blog’s predictions for 2023. Not a bad year actually although apologies in advance for Trump…
- There will be no UK General Election in 2023 – an easy tick
- Sunak’s style will not quite resonate with the electorate – tick
- Biden will run again – tick so far…
- The Ukraine war will last into 2024 – tick
- China will not invade Taiwan but the threat will rise – an easyish tick
- Erdogan will win the presidency again in Turkey – tick
- DeSantis will trump Trump – oops, massive cross
It’s all about elections in 2024…
So here goes, insiderightpolitics’ calculated gut feel:
First, to the UK. Sunak this week sort of confirmed there will be no election until the second half of 2024. Pretty obvious really. The Tories are 18-20 per cent behind in the polls, Sunak has only met one of his five pledges, recent tax cuts will only gradually start to be felt even as the overall tax burden continues to rise and time is needed to announce more. Sunak will want his 2 years as PM before, you heard it here first… the Tories go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation. One keeps hearing that Starmer hasn’t ‘sealed the deal’ and the Tories may make a surprise recovery to at least achieve a hung parliament, but I don’t buy it. Labour will do well in Scotland, the LibDems in the South. Reform UK will pull the rug from the Tories in the ‘Red Wall’. The sheer number of groups who want the Tories out will overwhelm their campaign. It is time for a change and even they know it.
The Tories move further to the Right after the election. Kemi Badenoch is the front-runner currently but there is a long way to go. Expect culture wars to feature and a bit of cozying up to Reform UK. Oh dear. This prediction is a no brainer. Tory moderates are split and simply, well, too moderate. It will take a generation before they find their backbone, and all this assumes there is no change to the electoral system. Rory Stewart once intimated he might lead the Tories in 10 years’ time, but he has also just intimated he would happily serve under Starmer, so no, he won’t.
Trump. This is a brave prediction, but he will not win the presidency and may not even be a candidate. Commentators have consistently underestimated the Democrat’s fortunes, either in the mid-terms or recently in State elections. Polls which put Trump ahead change their tune if he is convicted of anything. His best bet is Biden and Biden’s best bet is Trump. Neither of course may be on the ballot by November (don’t underestimate Trump’s health challenges as well as indictments) but Biden will beat Trump if it comes to that. All bets are off however if it is Biden versus Nikki Haley. She is running a smart campaign whilst DeSantis is running a dumb one.
There are many elections in Europe. Not least EU elections to the European Parliament. The populist Right will make gains notably in France, Italy and Germany but gains will be driven by frustration rather than belief and will not be as extensive as forecast.
Oh, come on, give it to me. Putin will win in Russia and, of course, Modi in India.
On other matters, the war with Ukraine will grind on throughout 2024 but Western resolve will hold up. It is doing wonders (Hungry not withstanding) to Europe’s understanding of the need to wean itself off American protection with their split Congress problems.
This blog avoids analysis of the Middle East – there are many more experts than I – but Netanyahu will not see out the year as Israel’s Prime Minister. His aggressive strategy towards the Palestinians, really all about staying in power, has manifestly failed and his sinister judicial laws rejected by Israel’s Supreme Court. This cat has used up his nine lives, sadly too late for many.
So there you go. A fascinating but scary year ahead. Even those not interested in politics should realise that their futures for years will be shaped by the outcomes of elections in 2024.
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