There is only one political organisation occupying the centre ground in UK politics. It is not the LibDems who vacated it years ago. It is Tony Blair and his Institute for Global Change. It is time the Tories embraced its commonsense centre-ground analysis of the world’s problems. You don’t have to agree with Blair’s choice of clients or his slavish obeisance to America to agree with much of the Institute’s output.

Worth listening to…

But Blair has particularly come to the fore this week with his take down of today’s Labour Party. Here is, I confess, a partly AI generated summary of his critique edited by my good self ( I don’t need to read through all the 5600 words…):

• The “Radical Centre” Blair argues is Labour’s only viable path warning that shifting left to appease internal critics is a perennial, dangerous delusion
• Governments which succeed don’t start with a personality contest, or a political question, as in: how do we ‘save the country’ from Reform?” Blair writes. “They start with an idea, a project, a governing purpose, an analysis of what is wrong and a plan to put it right.”
• Labour doesn’t have a coherent, worked-out overall plan for running the country in a fast changing world
• The government has been tone-deaf to the business community in its initial policies—such as expanding workers’ rights, above-inflation minimum wage hikes, and net-zero carbon pledges. Such initiatives stifle economic growth by failing to make the private sector feel supported
• Welfare reform is crucial. The rising bill for incapacity and disability benefits is unsustainable, and the triple lock should be the first to go
• The AI revolution needs to be applied to the whole of government and not be treated as a ‘niche industrial sector’
• The government needs to keep a grip of immigration to head off the far-right
• There needs to be a reset on ‘net zero’ policies to tackle the expense of the UK’s energy supply
• Rejoining the EU is no more a solution than leaving it. A wholesale recalibration of our relationship with the EU is needed, however.

So here we go. What sensible moderate Conservative supporter would disagree with this analysis even with regard to the Labour Party. Of course, Labour’s leadership contenders reply with barbs about inequality showing they don’t have the backbone to take the necessary measures to reduce inequality. The country needs to be better governed with a firm, long-term plan to turn the country around (from not as bad a position as many people believe!). It starts with patient forward thinking policy development focused specifically on the economy.

Today’s Tories seem incapable of the hard work required in Opposition to present a viable case for governing three years from now. It takes time which Thatcher and Blair used effectively. Perhaps they should team up with the Institute for Global Change for a bit of grown-up politics free from worrying about month-to-month opinion polls…

Shame on the Labour Party. Despite Starmer’s refrain of putting country before party, it has done the opposite. In stabbing Starmer in the back wholly unnecessarily, we have a zombie government led by a zombie prime minister at a time of national peril (Ukraine, Iran etc). Labour is simply no longer fit for office whoever leads it. This situation could go on for months if Starmer is determined not to stand down.

And what a motley crew of candidates seeking to replace him. The hugely overrated Burnham versus ‘I have just blown up my career’ Streeting versus the preposterous Rayner or incredible Ed ‘failed last time but that shouldn’t count’ Miliband.

None of them are fundamentally up to the job…

The favourite, assuming he survives a Reform by-election challenge in Makerfield, is Burnham. Why? Manchester’s success is largely down to the actions of the former Leader and Chief Executive of Manchester City Council not the mayor. Burnham’s national policy pronouncements are also hardly impressive; rowing back on blowing up the bond markets or watering down any urge to embrace the EU. He wants to renationalise a swathe of industries and will undoubtedly move the Labour government to the Left although further delegation of powers to the regions does makes sense. He is not a details man.

Burnham will make no meaningful difference to Labour’s fortunes except to at least initially be less unpopular than Starmer. One doubts he will overcome the electorate’s frustration over the chaos at the heart of government.

It is a common belief that the beneficiary of all this is Reform but I don’t agree. Farage has his own troubles and not just the investigation into a £5 million gift. He has a natural ceiling of support which is not far from where his party is now and the current mayhem presents a clear opportunity for the Tories if they were willing to take it. Badenoch has performed well recently and should make sure the Conservative Party contests Makerfield vigorously despite the certain wipeout.

The Tories then need to remake their case for economic competence stating clearly how they would manage public expenditure, introduce business friendly policies and realistically talk about tax aims. The conversation with voters must be clear and honest and include accepting responsibility for past mistakes and perhaps hinting at greater cooperation with the EU, starting with defence which is surely palatable to all Tories… Ultimately, ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ should be their one and only refrain since Labour under a Burnham government or Reform under a Farage government would both be reckless financially. It will still take a good while for the electorate to warm to the Tories of course after their incompetent past but at least Labour is now in the same boat!

The gap in today’s British politics is ideal for a centre-right party to differentiate itself with policies that reward aspiration whilst firmly but sensitively reducing the size of the state. Are the Tories disciplined enough to do this in the face of populism? Today, I doubt it but one lives in hope…

Towards the start of the Labour government’s tenure, this blog made the case that all non-populists should wish Starmer well, regardless of whether they voted Labour. If he was a successful Prime Minister, it would be good for the country generally and, in particular, head off the lure of Reform UK and populists generally.

Hopes were high. The antithesis of a dishonest populist, Starmer had previously held a big government job and would bring competence, process and transparency to his role undiluted by ego.

Solid but just not political enough…

Those hopes seem a long time ago. Taking, albeit minor, gifts, trying to place his former communications head as an ambassador, endless personnel changes handled charmlessly are bad enough, but the Mandelson hire is a real mess. The incompetence, lack of political nous in approaching him and the subsequent fallout is breathtaking. Why the hell was he given the job before being fully vetted? The media continues to feed off revelation after revelation, hysterically pushing Starmer to the brink. However, this blog has always argued the Mandelson saga and all the other missteps are not enough on their own to justify Starmer’s resignation as none of his colleagues would be any better at the job of PM. What a position to be in; the worst of all worlds and a terrible indictment of the quality of today’s politicians.

But…

It is Starmer’s overall inability to do the job of PM which may do for him in the end. Unprepared for government, incredibly he feels any specific political agenda is an unnecessary distraction from his job as, well, the political leader of his country. Need we say more…

Benefits reform has stalled, an anti-growth agenda introduced despite the rhetoric to support business, solutions to the social care crisis kicked into the long grass, house building becalmed, the defence review frozen. The list goes on. U-turns are commonplace as Starmer loses his nerve on policy after policy and the parliamentary majority, now skin deep, remains unused.

Starmer is simply not political enough and has squandered his election victory. The government has no direction, no agenda and has been rudderless since the start. That is his real failure, not Mandelson. He is the Labour equivalent of Rishi Sunak. Decent, basically competent but out of his depth when it comes to the art of politics.

The relatively competent conduct of foreign affairs in an almost impossible environment no longer seems enough. Domestic governance is so poor that Labour’s trajectory is to be wiped out in May’s local elections with the chances of turning things around before the General Election, not due for another three years, looking more difficult by the day.

So, what choice do we have? Labour’s lack of reality that blow hard, lightweight Andy Burnham or Angela ‘tell it as it is’ except on tax Rayner or failed infuriating former leader, Ed Miliband, is its and our saviour is for the birds. Today’s Tories and LibDems also offer very little. No wonder the electorate turns to extremes in frustration as will be shown by next week’s local elections (more on that after the results without the media’s hysteria about the wipeout of Labour…).

Against this backdrop, it still seems we should stick with Nurse Starmer for fear of something worse. But it feels like an increasingly big ask…