Who will trump Trump?

Last week, this blog made a prediction that Trump would not win this year’s US presidential election and may not even be a candidate. Umm… brave or foolhardy? Well, time will tell but yesterday was a big step forward in the presidential race.

Biden and Trump are each other’s best bet…

First, Republican Chris Christie, now a harsh critic of Trump, suspended his presidential campaign. In some ways this doesn’t mean much. He was polling just two per cent amongst the Republican base. His lambasting of Trump would have meant more if he hadn’t had his head up Trump’s fundament when he initially became President in 2016. However, as the list of GOP wannabees dwindles, it allows those opposed to Trump to coalesce around DeSantis (unlikely) or Haley (more likely). In that sense Christie’s trashing of Haley off-camera is probably more meaningful than him stepping out of the race.

Today, it certainly looks as though Trump will be his Party’s nominee, but the contest has a long way to go with exciting legal hurdles ahead. In the meantime, it is curious that Fox News is giving Trump prime airtime, inviting him to friendly on air townhall meetings whilst his fellow contestants are debating elsewhere. The Murdoch’s disparage him in private, Trump has cost them US$1 billion indirectly in damages and most elected Republicans one hears are also extremely rude about Trump in private too.

We shall see. Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times recently eloquently explained why American democracy will survive Trump come what may. I am not so sure… although Congressional elections should stymie Trump’s presidency domestically pretty quickly.

If all that seems pessimistic, then balance these events with further evidence emerging suggesting the Democrat’s electoral prospects, even under Biden, are underestimated. Recent polling by The Washington Post and University of Maryland suggests an overwhelming majority (72 per cent) of Americans are not sympathetic to the January 6th rioters, who Trump wants to pardon, believing convicts either received fair sentences or they were not harsh enough. Add that to the real elections (mid-term Congressional and State ones) where Democrats significantly outperformed expectations, and there is all to play for.

As also mentioned in last week’s blog, Trump is Biden’s best bet and vice versa. It will be a nail-biting year, particularly as there is also the possibility that neither may be a candidate by November. And only America’s democracy and global security is at stake…

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