The politics of Julius Caesar…

There is a brilliant documentary on BBC iPlayer currently; ‘Julius Caesar, The Making of a Dictator’. Thoroughly recommended. It charts the path of Caesar to power and then absolute power. Firebrand populism to whip up the mob, tenacity, charisma, a brilliant propagandist, skillful at building unholy political alliances, hidden and not so hidden thuggery, a disrespect for institutions and their constraints on power, and then, finally, tyranny. Of course, it all ends in tears five years later in mid-March 44 BC… but the damage was done. The Roman Empire was ruled by dictators for hundreds of years with most vestiges of democracy withering on the vine.

The rise of Julius Caesar could teach us a thing or two…

Remind you of anything?

Western democracy is starting to feel under threat again. Complacent voters disillusioned with the democratic norms of over-promising politicians who under-deliver, are in revolt. There is the incredible but highly possible resurrection of Trump in the US and the rise of the far-right across much of Europe, already running governments in Hungary and Italy but not in Poland thank goodness. The broader Republican Party in the US is tempted to abandon Ukraine and Putin is banking more generally on the West giving up. Looking further afield, Modi in India, (still trading with Russia), is starting to dismantle checks and balances in their democracy.

A commentator on Sky News rather depressingly summed it up this week. Paraphrasing him, he spoke of many power brokers in the US as well as elsewhere who would like the world run by the three Caesars of Trump, Xi and Putin. Democratic norms would continue to disappear as voters were bought off with manipulated expectations. Corrupt elites would rule uninterrupted.

The optimist says that the above will not happen. That voters will wake up in time. That populists in Western democracies to date have largely been grossly incompetent; Trump and Johnson for example… But what happens if they are not incompetent or, in Trump’s case, had powerful allies who would use him as the proverbial Trojan Horse. Think of the damage that could be done with democratic institutions permanently undermined, climate change initiatives reversed, Putin winning a partial victory in Ukraine and further Chinese hegemony.

2024 will be a pivotal year. It may be a good one or not, but like politics in ancient Rome, we had better be on our guard…