Badenoch takes the battle to Burnham

Thanks to Andy Burnham, the ideological divide in British politics is much clearer and Kemi Badenoch has added to that clarity. In an uncompromising Party Conference speech yesterday, she has placed the Tories firmly on the Right of the political spectrum. No shuffle towards the centre-ground under Badenoch’s leadership.

Punchy but is Badenoch winning over moderates?

She has united the Tory Party with welfare cuts, inheritance tax and stamp duty cuts, leaving the ECHR, hostility to the EU and pushing the green agenda to the fringes. Or rather she has united today’s Tory Party. Those who are more centrist no longer belong even if there is a huge consensus on cutting welfare and freeing up business from rising taxes and red tape. Moderates either have nowhere to go or have to embrace a hopelessly disappointing Liberal Democrat Party.

Badenoch now calls it her Tory Party. She vets prospective parliamentary candidates and has banned anyone who disagrees with her views and policies. So much for free speech on the Right…

To be fair, Badenoch has got it right on Reform UK. She has gone on the attack with her analysis of their lack of probity, sleaze, racism and hopelessly (even socialist) economic policies. She highlighted clear differences between the Conservative Party and Reform and pledged never to unite with them. Who can blame her when the likes of the awful Robert Jenrick, thrown out of the Tory Party ahead of his defection, slimes his way from studio to studio defending the indefensible.

Badenoch has also got it right in realising belatedly it is the economy stupid. Much more time now seems to be spent on this topic rather than emphasising culture wars. Good.

So there we have it. With the implosion of the Greens, the slow slide in the fortunes of Reform, and the clear divide between Labour and Conservatives on most major policy areas it seems we might be veering back towards two party politics. In our dreams. Never count on the demise of Reform and also, courtesy of Burnham, there is proportional representation to think about…

Badenoch falls into Burnham’s trap…

No more gloom and doom. No more kicking tricky issues into the long grass. No more wooden speeches.

You have to give it to Andy Burnham. He continues to surprise on the upside.

Andy Burnham is on a bit of a roll…

His conference performance this week was a masterclass of optimism, emotion, personal stories but also hard policy. No notes either! I was surprised there was not more coverage of his commitment to proportional representation at the next election, a huge shift for the Labour Party, but abandoning the triple lock, options for rejoining the single market or even rejoining the EU was punchy stuff.

But it was his overall narrative that most impressed in terms of clarity. You don’t have to agree with it to appreciate it. Burnham is up for the fight of challenging the consensus of the last 40 years that the state is a dead hand that stifles innovation, freedom even, and needs to back out of our lives. A commitment to a national care service, rolling back privatisation, a far stronger embrace of the State as a force for good in removing inequality and improving society as a whole was his refrain. He essentially called time on Thatcherism that none of his elected Labour predecessors have had the guts to do. Positivity shone throughout about the potential of a collective approach to society’s challenges.

In doing this, cloaked in a ‘I’m the decent guy here’ style, he set the trap for his opponents, essentially Reform and probably now the biggest threat, the Tories, albeit severely weakened.

Badenoch walked straight into it. No praise for radical solutions that at least on paper might reverse the failures of the past, many of them under a Tory government, no positivity, no new refrain about costs and benefits. Just negativity, where is the money coming, a return to the 1970s etc. You can sum up Badenoch and her small crew of Tories in one word. Sour.

She cannot see that the public feels the consensus of the last four decades is no longer working for them. Local government hollowed out, insufficient public housing, failing utilities, major issues such as social care unresolved because of nervousness it will increase the role of the state. Add the failure of Brexit to this list and the anti-Tory case has been made. Badenoch is incapable of apologising for the mistakes of past Tory governments. Until that happens, her party cannot move on. Voters have not forgotten.

This blog has consistently made the case that populism thrives only because of the failures of over promising, indecisive moderate politicians who don’t tell it as it is. Whether it works or not, and there are legitimate doubts it may not, Burnham has made the case for a big bold government as a force for good that delivers radical solutions to seemingly intractable problems. If taxes have to rise so be it. The risk will be taken.

The choice at the next election has suddenly been made crystal clear. A sour refrain of rolling back the state versus hope that it can be made to work better. When the election comes, the electorate still sick of the Tories are probably more likely to choose the latter.