Tag: nigel-farage

Farage’s folly…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

This blog has argued for some time that Reform UK has peaked. It is loathed by too many people to win a General Election outright and that is before tactical voting, the advent of a new far-right party, Restore, and at least the short-term impact of a Burnham premiership. Meanwhile, the party sits at the top of opinion polls waiting for new ‘events… dear boy, events’ to possibly consume it.

Those events are happening now and not in a good way for this insurgent party. The strength of Reform has always been its controversial leader, Nigel Farage, surely one of the most consequential politicians of the last few decades. Its weakness has been, well, Nigel Farage The party is too much of a one man band. He has a thin skin, cannot get on with anyone for long, is not interested in policy detail and is loose with the truth even for a politician. Remind you of anyone? None of this seemed to matter. A Guardian lead writer when asked what was the main parties’ strategy towards Reform, in the face of Farage’s continuing popularity replied their only hope was that something happened to incapacitate him.

He is not a cat and maybe running out of lives…

Well, incapacitated he might become for reasons not forecast a few weeks ago. First came the hidden personal donation to Farage of £5 million from a Thai based crypto billionaire. He has given three contradictory reasons for being given the gift, none of them convincing and now faces a parliamentary standards inquiry. Next comes receiving undeclared benefits from a convicted fraudster, meriting a second enquiry. At worse, these scandals could force Farage out of parliament.

Clearly rattled and genuinely angry about being hounded by the press, he has decided to resign his seat and force a by-election in his parliamentary seat of Clacton on the subject of his innocence of breaking any rules. “I’ve decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions,” said Farage in a televised address yesterday. “This will be a people versus the establishment by-election.”

Umm… this is not America. You actually can’t get away with too much in public life. The major parties are planning to boycott the election making an initial victory for Farage meaningless. They will await the results of a resumed parliamentary standards enquiry which may lead to a second by-election which will then be contested.

This may well be curtains for Farage. The public is tired of all the drama in UK politics and one senses they have little sympathy for him and may have had enough.

As for Farage, he looks as if he might have had enough too. Bored of being in parliament, watching his party consistently underperform in by-elections and now all this scrutiny. He may simply have run out of juice and give up.

Who could blame him? What a pity.

Populism always self-destructs in the end but it may take a while…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The very nature of populism contains the seeds of its self-destruction. It is led by individuals who don’t care about their voters and who are usually incompetent at governing. But, most importantly, populism is based on conflicting aims. It is the latter which does for it in the end. The only problem is how much cumulative damage is done when populist regimes are in power. It can be a while before they are found out.

Waiting for populism to have its comeuppance will take patience…

But please indulge me. Let’s start with an amusing little theatrical performance from Reform UK. They have struck a nerve with the electorate in the UK and are (were) ahead in the opinion polls. The only problem is their 5 MPs are falling out spectacularly. Some guy called Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth, has just attacked Farage’s leadership only to be stripped of the whip due to allegations of bullying and threatening the Party Chair, Zia Yusuf. He has been offered the chance to form a new far-right party with ex-Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib, who also fell out with Farage. Elon Musk was a fan of Lowe versus Farage, apparently, and that is probably at the heart of this dispute. Meanwhile, and more importantly, Reform UK have been forced into silence due to their support of Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the UK. The US, under his leadership, is no longer even seen as an ally of the West according to the latest opinion polls despite a potential Ukraine peace deal – on what terms?). Oh dear. This all might be short-term turbulence for Reform, but it confirms this blog’s opinion that the party has a natural ceiling of support, which is lower than most observers think.

Anyway, on to the populist with real power, Donald Trump. He, too, is beginning to hit turbulence, although still hugely popular with his core base. Tariffs may really hurt the ordinary American voter soon and that is reflected in the worse period for the US stock market since 2022 with Tesla losing 15% alone. The latter is beginning to feel like a bitcoin investment. US inflation and therefore interest rates may well end up higher and growth lower as a result of Trump’s policies although currently he doesn’t seem to care. We shall see.

Elsewhere domestically, more conflicted aims are appearing. A purge of immigrants will hit higher house building, an election promise of Trump. A move away from climate related policies will challenge the US lead in green technology. The unelected, unaccountable Elon Musk is causing chaos in government departments. When even toilet attendants in national parks are a target to be fired, let alone the threat to the existence of national parks themselves, how will the average voter feel? Walking away from vaccination policies is already contributing to a measles surge in Texas. The list goes on, and, increasingly, Democrat run states will simply absorb the role of federal government themselves.

The law of unintended consequences is also washing across the globe. In threatening Canada not only through tariffs but more broadly, it has partly led to the departure of Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau, to be replaced by an even more determined opponent of Trump, Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor. The Liberals are surging in the polls versus the mildly pro-Trump Conservatives who were a shoo-in in an Autumn election. Canada is now distinctly hostile to the US.

Over in Europe, countries are getting their act together on defence to support Ukraine with the wider aim of neutralising a disengaged US, which might even leave NATO. To be fair, peace is back on the US/Ukraine agenda, but it is very early days, and the US has to prove it can bully Russia, too. European powers have to be polite towards the US for now to buy time, but this might not last as the US remains an unreliable partner at best. For the UK, it smooths the path to greater European integration. Thank you, President Trump.

All this makes the US seemingly aligned with strongmen Presidents Xi and Putin, which might be what an out of control Trump administration wants. US opinion polls are, however, particularly hostile towards Russia. Combine this with a worsening economic backdrop and natural democratic allies preparing to walk away from the US, and the long-term impact for Americans could be disastrous.

Trump is surely at peak power, and his populist legacy may not last beyond him outside diehard MAGA supporters. How much damage is done and how quickly it is noticed will be key to his tenure along with Democrats getting their act together. Don’t hold your breath. It may all take a while even if populist self-destruction happens in the end.