Tag: nato

Trump spirals out of control in front of a helpless Europe…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

International politics has never seemed so depressing as it is today.

Putin’s cheerleader in chief, no other than one Donald Trump, President of the United States, has done a deal accepting Russian diesel, called for Zelenskyy to go, partly denied Ukraine access to intelligence to protect its skies, although apparently now reversed (it is scary how much reliance there is on Elon Musk’s starlink systems), advocates Europe ending sanctions on Russia and generally accepts taking a nation by force is a legitimate activity.

Trump’s ‘special’ envoy, Witkoff, earlier this week in talks with Putin saluted him as a humanitarian. What? Try telling that to supporters of murdered Russian political opponents and Ukrainians.

Trump’s emissary to Putin would be better sticking to real estate…

Trump even found time to congratulate the UK on opening up the Jackdaw oil field this week. How sweet… Mind your own damn business. You have a war in the Middle East of your own making to fight. Why don’t you focus on that in the middle of the night.

We knew Trump loved strongmen but underestimated his total lack of morality in pursuing this fetish.

There no longer appears to be many checks and balances on this president domestically. The Democrats rage impotently at him, mired in their own divisions and without clear leadership. The courts just about keep him in check within the US but a Republican thrashing in the mid-terms is by no means certain. Trump has a record disapproval rating of over 60 per cent but still approximately a third of Americans polled think he is doing a reasonable job. FFS! Just think about America’s participation in the disaster of the Iran war, led there by Israel’s Prime Minister, Netanyahu, who wiser presidents shunned. Add in all the lies and corruption and Trump’s ratings should be in single figures.

So we turn to Europe…. In the two largest economies, the AfD in Germany, apologists for Putin, are ascendant in the polls. Marine Le Pen, favoured to win the French presidential election next year and a debtor of a Russian bank for an earlier election campaign, wants to leave NATO’s integrated control. She walks around with an electronic tag, temporarily suspended, hanging over her head so to speak, after being found guilty of corruptly stealing EU funds to support her domestic political operations. One is already nostalgic for past European leaders, even the disastrous, soon to be unemployed President Macron whose vanity finally overwhelmed him.

The continent is potentially in a real mess, mired in debt, mostly to even greater levels than the UK. Their voters are revolting which is all good news for Putin keen to sow mayhem on his doorstep to avoid any sort of accountability. I can’t believe I am saying this but should we perhaps hold off on further EU integration for now..?

International politics is at a turning point. Moderates are on the back foot almost everywhere. Trump’s presidency has made the weather globally just like Farage in the UK. Sensible, humane politicians need to strengthen their backbones, create a ruthless strategy for defending liberal democracy, and get on with it.

And where is the UK in all this? Well, fairly OK actually. Identify the potential leaders in Europe and the USA who can turn things around. I bet you are struggling for names… Against that backdrop, hug Burnham, Badenoch, and our parliamentary democracy close. The UK brand is not dead yet…

NATO teeters on the brink…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Just a week after calling Trump a rogue President, he goes rogue on Greenland, Europe and NATO.

Hands off, Trump!

It can’t be emphasised strongly enough. The US has no rights to Greenland and if Trump seizes it by force it would be the end of NATO. Europe would essentially be at war with the US. Incredible. Putin and Xi must be loving it and, consequently, the future of Ukraine and Taiwan now looks grim.

It is probably all negotiation tactics, but Trump cannot be allowed to treat allies like this. The US had 10,000 troops in Greenland which today is down to c150. It is partly America’s fault that currently Greenland is under defended. They could simply go back to having a larger military base.

Except… it is really Europe’s fault we are in this situation. Why leave it just to America to have a base there? There were apparently no NATO troops ex the US in Greenland. Last week in the face of Trump’s aggression, Britain has sent just one officer, France has sent 15 troops, Germany 13 and Norway two. 50 in all from Europe. Pathetic.

The only worthwhile legacy from Trump will be Europe getting its act together militarily.

In the meantime, I have just listened to Starmer’s statement on the crisis. Mealy mouthed triangulation. You can see why he fails to grasp the public’s imagination. His approach is no longer working. The US has just reneged on a tech agreement with the UK, negotiated in good faith, which we thought was in the bag. It is clear there is no longer any point in bending the knee to the US. Trump’s administration has provided much evidence that it just encourages greater contempt for ‘wishy, washy socialist’ Europe.

Europe needs to stand up to Trump once and for all. Any one party in the UK who doesn’t will not get my vote!

Trump’s approach to Ukraine remains a messy betrayal…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The recent Trump/Putin summit felt like the one with Kim Jong Un. A pariah is invited to meet Trump on the pariah’s terms. The pariah gains validation from the meeting, strokes Trump’s ego, and departs in a stronger position.

Trump gains nothing from the meeting except a belief he is a deal-maker extraordinaire. The pariah gains time to wreak more mayhem.

To date, Trump has been outplayed by Putin. Does he really care?

International diplomacy is no property transaction. It is a game of brutal chess, testing your opponent’s weaknesses to outplay them. Trump’s frailties (notably his ego) are there for all to see, but sadly, the consequences of being outplayed are far more serious than a mere game of chess.

Putin has bought time (useful if you are winning the battle) and has persuaded Trump that illegal territorial gains in Ukraine from an act of war should be recognised. Ukraine apparently has no right to join NATO, and Western troops have no right to protect Ukraine’s borders. Trump’s security guarantees if a settlement is reached from such a mercurial president are hardly worth the paper they are written on. He could never put American troops on the ground anyway due to his isolationist base. Just look how they responded to the bombing of Iran.

The positive from all this is the impressive response from the major European powers, acting as one in seeking to defend Ukraine and, in doing so, their own security. As they rushed to the White House displaying a normally well-hidden mastery of the English language, the future of the UK seems clear. It is in Europe and aligned with the EU. The US is now no longer a reliable ally regardless of Trump.

The challenge is that Europe needs longer to rearm than it will take Putin to defeat Ukraine. Bowing the knee to Trump is an unpleasant necessity for now.

But let’s be clear. Only Putin has been the beneficiary of Trump’s actions in the past week or so. As the largest wave of Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine overnight, the messy betrayal of Ukraine by this US president remains unchanged.

Trump’s America is no longer an ally of Europe

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

Trump is awful. A liar and that is not a word to be used lightly. Yesterday, he gave a press conference accusing Ukraine of starting the war with Russia, that the US has given US$500 billion in aid to Ukraine when it is closer to US$100 billion in direct, mainly military aid which benefits many US industries. He also commented that Zelenskyy ‘s approval rating is 4% when it is 57% and parroted Putin’s propaganda online questioning the authenticity of Zelenskyy ‘s rule.

Listen to the brilliant podcast ‘The Rest is History’ on Chamberlain negotiating away the Sudetenland with Hitler without the Czechs present at the infamous Munich conference in 1938. The similarity with Trump/Putin/Ukraine is uncanny as America sits down to negotiate away Ukraine’s sovereignty with Russia. Neither Ukraine or Europe have been invited to participate.

What does Putin have on Trump except a psychological hold on Trump’s love of strong, violent anti-democratic leaders?

Zelenskyy knows who his friends are and they don’t currently reside in the White House…

This blog’s prediction that Trump wouldn’t be as bad as many critics feared is looking somewhat shaky currently.

Trump’s Ukraine comments come on top of Vice President JD Vance’s speech at a security conference, guess where, in Munich…, claiming the biggest threat to Europe came from within (lack of freedom of speech) rather than Putin. Try telling that to the relatives of murdered opponents of Putin in Russia or the suffering people of Ukraine.

Of course, Trump and Vance have a point in demanding that Europe stands up for itself versus Russia rather than the US always bailing it out. It is a policy articulated by many previous US presidents and wrongly ignored. No longer. Trump’s lasting legacy may be to unite Europe militarily, although it may take a while as they row about European boots on the ground to keep a future peace in Ukraine.

The US is now an amoral, possibly an immoral country politically. Everything is transactional. There is no sense the current Administration believes democratic values trump authoritarian rule. In fact, it is the reverse. Europe (ex the far-right) better learn to live without an ally across the Atlantic for the time being.

America voted for America First, not Putin, Xi, or any other quasi dictator first. Perhaps American voters do not care, but they will eventually find out the two aims are incompatible. Let’s hope it is not too late by then.