Tag: politics

It’s Irregular Migration, Stupid…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

As a news junky, I rarely tune out of the news. But this summer with the exception of the Putin/Trump summit on Ukraine, I have.

Probably not surprising. Whether it is Israel/Gaza, Ukraine or Trump’s actions generally, the news agenda is uniformly depressing. Nothing gets resolved, the aggressors make ground and, with Trump, there seems no checks and balances on his increasingly authoritarian presidency.

But, closer to home, it is the furore over the small boats crisis which makes grim reading/watching. As the number of irregular migrants rises (still a small percentage of overall immigration), it is the worst face of Britain on show. Racist thugs besiege migrant hotels (if only we could deport them…) and Nigel Farage makes hay proposing all sorts of impossible policies whilst Starmer’s government seems rudderless.

The worst face of Britain on display…

Whether you like it or not a meaningful solution has to be found to ‘stop the small boats’ otherwise Farage’s momentum may not stall through to the next election. He is currently 8 percent ahead of Labour in the polls. Just look what the issue of irregular or illegal immigration did for Trump. Liberals in the broadest sense of the word need to form a consensus that action needs to be taken and support increasingly bold initiatives from Starmer, otherwise the consequences electorally for their agenda will be far worse.

Margaret Thatcher alighted on the issue of legal versus illegal immigration years ago and warned of the fallout from unfettered access to the UK. It has been the Achilles heel of successive governments and now a potential fatal wound for Starmer if he doesn’t get numbers down.

And let’s be clear, many voters, not the ones demonstrating outside hotels, have a valid point. There are genuine fears, even if hardly justified by the facts or exaggerated, about large numbers of young men from different cultural backgrounds being housed in small towns. The cost of the hotels to accommodate migrants as armies of lawyers appeal nearly every deportation is outrageous, particularly when there is such a housing shortage in the UK and the government is short of money generally. Every government initiative is too little, too late and we will end up leaving the ECHR and other international agreements if nothing can be done.

Immigration is vital to the health of the UK economy. Migrants enrich our life but irregular migration washes out many of the perceived benefits. Fears whipped up by Farage and the vile Robert Jenrick, Shadow Justice Secretary, (shame on the Tory Party for letting his agenda run) dominate the headlines. The political agenda and public life generally is becoming ugly which can only benefit populists. Starmer has to park his international activities and focus on his domestic ones whatever the cost otherwise he will be a one-term premier.

Against this backdrop, when indoors, no wonder this summer has been dominated by the likes of Netflix rather than the news…

Trump’s approach to Ukraine remains a messy betrayal…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The recent Trump/Putin summit felt like the one with Kim Jong Un. A pariah is invited to meet Trump on the pariah’s terms. The pariah gains validation from the meeting, strokes Trump’s ego, and departs in a stronger position.

Trump gains nothing from the meeting except a belief he is a deal-maker extraordinaire. The pariah gains time to wreak more mayhem.

To date, Trump has been outplayed by Putin. Does he really care?

International diplomacy is no property transaction. It is a game of brutal chess, testing your opponent’s weaknesses to outplay them. Trump’s frailties (notably his ego) are there for all to see, but sadly, the consequences of being outplayed are far more serious than a mere game of chess.

Putin has bought time (useful if you are winning the battle) and has persuaded Trump that illegal territorial gains in Ukraine from an act of war should be recognised. Ukraine apparently has no right to join NATO, and Western troops have no right to protect Ukraine’s borders. Trump’s security guarantees if a settlement is reached from such a mercurial president are hardly worth the paper they are written on. He could never put American troops on the ground anyway due to his isolationist base. Just look how they responded to the bombing of Iran.

The positive from all this is the impressive response from the major European powers, acting as one in seeking to defend Ukraine and, in doing so, their own security. As they rushed to the White House displaying a normally well-hidden mastery of the English language, the future of the UK seems clear. It is in Europe and aligned with the EU. The US is now no longer a reliable ally regardless of Trump.

The challenge is that Europe needs longer to rearm than it will take Putin to defeat Ukraine. Bowing the knee to Trump is an unpleasant necessity for now.

But let’s be clear. Only Putin has been the beneficiary of Trump’s actions in the past week or so. As the largest wave of Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine overnight, the messy betrayal of Ukraine by this US president remains unchanged.

Trump’s balance sheet: the good, the bad and the very ugly…

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

So, lucky us. We get Donald Trump twice this year. First, playing golf in Turnberry with Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer rushing up to Scotland to pay homage and then the State visit in September. Umm…

Trump has dominated the headlines since day one of his presidency, hitting the ground running with a highly competent far-right team behind him, introducing some ground-breaking and irreversible domestic and international policies. You might not like him, but as with Farage, he is a transformative politician.

Trump swings into Scotland…

So, how does the balance sheet of Trump’s actions look as we head off for the summer holidays? Well, first the good, as it is the shortest part.

Trump was right to goad and threaten Europe into paying more for its own defence. Previous US presidents have urged this but have then done nothing to force Europe’s hand. There has always been a strong isolationist streak in America, and Trump has played this beautifully to get a 3.5 per cent of GDP defence spending commitment from European countries (ex-Spain). Second, immigration. Illegal immigration across the Mexican border has now fallen by 90 per cent on a month on month basis. Whatever you think of the merits of migration or the way Trump has treated this issue, the scale of illegal border crossings was storing up huge tensions in the US, even amongst many Democrat voters as southern states sent immigrants north to be housed. Obama was actually the toughest US president to curb numbers before Trump. Biden was hopeless. In thrall to his left-wing, he totally failed (as did Harris) to understand the strength of feeling on this issue across a majority of voters. Take note, Starmer.

OK, that’s enough ‘praise’. Now the bad. Tariffs do not work. They will potentially cause huge market inefficiencies and drive up prices. The consequences have yet to be felt. The rates are illogical across countries, although the overall impact might not be as great as earlier predictions indicated. Second, the recent tax bill. It strips Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party who pushed it through, ballooning the deficit in the process. What happened to fiscal conservatism? One senses the next global economic crisis might be driven by a fear of America defaulting on its debt, evidence demonstrated by the current weakness of the US Dollar.

Then the very ugly. There could be an entire book on this. Regardless of policy, it is the morality of leaders and their probity, which provides the bedrock to democracy. Trump simply lies, lies, lies. Perhaps an unsurprising trait in a convicted felon. Americans either don’t notice or don’t care about the State capture blatantly on view, whether it is Trump’s crypto-currency deals, the acceptance of a jet from Qatar or the fact that he, his family and ‘friends’ constantly trade on the broader influence of the presidency to enrich themselves. Next is the undermining of state institutions, the bullying of universities and arts generally in a drive to eradicate ‘political correctness’, the attempt to compromise an independent judicial process. The list goes on, but the ugly is also a fair description of fawning Western leaders who have swallowed their pride to accommodate Trump.

Finally, the lowest of the lows was how President Zelenskyy was treated in the White House in February. This was an iconic moment. Surrounded by individuals who had never fought, been under any military threat, and, in some cases, had dodged the Vietnam draft, it was a shameful episode. JD Vance’s behaviour was on this occasion, even worse than Trump’s. How dare they speak to a fellow president like that, representing a country under existential threat. This spectacle alone should be enough to justify a damning analysis of Trump’s presidency. The one silver lining is that Trump hasn’t had the opportunity to hand Ukraine to Putin and now understands the Russian leader isn’t quite the pal he thought he was.

The future? Who knows, as the Democrats sink to record levels of unpopularity and irrelevance. Will the presidency and federal institutions recover from four years of Trump? Will anyone realise the damage done by ineffectual checks and balances on centralised power? One doubts it. In a few years, which can’t come too soon, Trump’s emperor-like reign will end. But the hangover will be enormous.

The US: an increasingly foreign country for Europeans…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

I went to Chicago, Boston, and New York last week on business. It included a mock listing for my company, JPES Partners, on Nasdaq courtesy of our partners, eVestment. Thank you. It was fun.

When in the US, focus on the positives such as Nasdaq’s brilliant self-promotion…

I stayed on to see close friends at the weekend. That was fun, too. But they are worried.

The politics of this country is dark, very dark. Like Brexit in the UK, Trump is toxic. Half of the electorate loathe him and are simply embarrassed or alarmed. The other half feel he is a slightly unpleasant necessity. A small minority of course love him but, even amongst the latter, few would want him round for dinner…

Trump’s presidency is sinister, and his presence makes the country increasingly foreign to Europeans. I was warned to take any anti-Trump material off my phone before entering the country as border security could ask to see it and send me home if it offended. What??? Federal institutions are under attack, including the judiciary. Cultural and educational institutions seen as liberal are also under attack or are usurped. Trump taking over the Kennedy Centre and the attempted crushing of Harvard by withdrawing federal grants are just two painful examples.

Trump threatens NATO, bombs Iran, swears at Israel and lies on the international stage. It is too early to address the impact of his chaotic foreign policy, but it is splitting his isolationist supporters. They will bend the knee in the end. They have nowhere else to go. Just listen to the pathetic and vile Steve Bannon grovelling to Trump on the Middle East.

Domestically, Trump also happens to be forcing through a tax bill stripping Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party.

Yet, the Democrats in response are hopeless. Either stunned into inaction or busy in-fighting. A new generation of activists believe a lurch to the Left is the solution to Trump with Democrats in New York electing a privileged self-described socialist to be their candidate for mayor. Take note, you muppets. Corbyn’s experience in the UK should be a guide. It may feel good, but you will never win elections nationally from this position. Voters are mostly centrist, and your failure to offer a decent alternative to Trump re voters’ core concerns handed him victory in the first place.

Trump was underestimated, and the US Constitution overestimated. Checks and balances feel illusionary. Against this background, I know many Europeans who have withdrawn from holidaying in the US until Trump has gone. Public life has become too wild. My response? I walked past Trump Tower on 5th Avenue, forgetting to look. You just have to focus on the belief that Trump will never define this country, whatever current damage this man does. Just ignore him and keep on walking…

Nice to be home, though.

‘Logical’ Conservatism is the way to defeat populism

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

As writer of this blog, I have to make a confession. I am a member of an organisation that represents an extremist minority in UK politics. It is called the Conservative European Forum (CEF) which amongst other things represents pro-EU Conservatives…

It believes the Conservative Party should anchor itself on the centre-right and no further, focusing on strong relationships with our European partners, economically and in relation to defence. Add to that respect for institutions of state, social liberalism but supporting family structures in whatever form they take, fiscal prudence but always aiming for lower taxes when they can be afforded, aspiration, a comprehensive but fair (to everyone) social security net to name a few other beliefs and you have the best of a Conservative Party that has today lost its bearings.

The CEF held a breakfast with Matthew Parris this week. The conversation took a gloomy turn…:

  • The Conservative Party is heading to a dead end chasing Reform
  • Kemi Badenoch is underperforming (a polite summary) and her leadership is time limited
  • The main thing saving the Conservative Party is the LibDems failing to, not wanting to, or being unable to move to the Right to finish it off once and for all
  • The route to redemption is sweeping away the recent past, regaining a reputation for economic competence. It is always the economy stupid, never immigration or cultural wars
  • That now is the time to be unpopular, advocating cutting unsustainable debt, in the process and in particular, rebalancing policies away from older voters to younger ones
  • The Party doesn’t get any of this except point two…

Rebalancing economic policies, indeed even focusing on them at all, will inevitably be hugely unpopular to the few remaining Conservative Party members let alone some Conservative inclined voters, but absolutely logical and necessary. It is needed early in this parliament to sow the seeds of redemption, even whilst understanding it will be a long road back to power over more than one election cycle, whoever is leading the Party.

Neither show the understanding or commitment to defeat populism

Which takes me to the Labour government’s spending review yesterday. One can applaud capital spending but the actual or imminent retreat on the winter fuel allowance, sickness benefits, the two children policy whilst refusing to increase core taxes is fantasy economics. There is a consensus Rachel Reeves is safe in her job for now but a UK debt crisis is around the corner if we are not beaten to it by the US.

Moderate politicians are being frequently thrashed by populists because they have promised too much and under-delivered for too long. Labour’s sums don’t add up and the lack of clarity in the overall message means it remains disappointingly business as usual for this centrist government.

If the Conservatives could have a serious, logical conversation about the huge pressures facing public expenditure and what hard, unpopular decisions need to be taken to correct the trajectory, they could start to regain a reputation for economic competence, expanding their voting base from the cul-de-sac they find themselves in now.

Sounds logical but more pain is required before such a path to recovery is taken. All on the assumption the patient doesn’t expire in the meantime…

US teeters on the economic brink…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The Trump presidency is a roller coaster affair, even worse than most pundits feared. You can’t argue it isn’t box office, though, perhaps deliberately so. The long expected blow-up between Trump and Musk is pure theatre.

A relationship made for theatre…

However, there is one constant. The state of the US economy and its grotesque burden of debt. On this issue, Elon Musk is correct.

The budget deficit was an incredible 6.4% of GDP in 2024. Forecasters expect this to rise above 7% in every year of Trump’s presidency. The US debt pile currently exceeds 120% of GDP. This is unsustainable.

When Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, has to reassure markets that ‘the US is never going to default’, you know there is real trouble brewing.

Trump’s big, beautiful tax bill will remove the debt ceiling. Its impact is expected to add US2.4 trillion of additional debt over the next decade. The evidence is clear. Tax cuts mainly for the better off, never pay for themselves.

Add to this tariffs cutting growth, fears over Trump’s presidency undermining the rule of law and unpredictable foreign policy initiatives in the face of geopolitical instability, and you have a recipe for economic disaster.

Longer-term US interest rates are rising, exacerbating the debt problem whilst the US dollar weakens.

Trump’s economic approval ratings are dire, but these are not yet in territory to undermine his populist presidency. He continues to play out his hugely risky economic experiment. Republican fiscal conservatives must be turning in their graves, for that is where most of them are.

Bill Clinton was the last president to balance the budget. Rather than set up his own party, perhaps Elon Musk should change sides and vote Democrat…

Meanwhile, on this side of the pond it is a key week for the Labour government as it announces details of its spending review. More on this later but if it is not ‘big, beautiful and bold’, you would have to ask what is the point of Starmer/Reeves et al.

Starmer is improving all the time but will get little credit

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Managing Trump relatively successfully, a US/UK trade deal, a UK/India trade deal, a new compact with the EU. Despite the devil being in the detail, Starmer should get a pat on the back.

Being PM is a thankless task…

He won’t, of course. None of the above will get the UK back to a pre-Brexit nirvana. They barely get us to the starting line, and few voters will see any immediate impact.

The narrative has been set. All mainstream politicians are useless at best, dissembling voters to hide their inadequacies. Starmer is no exception.

Reform, according to many voters, tells it as it is. Excessive political correctness, an interfering state, too much immigration that Labour lovies secretly like. Then, the government cosies up to Europe, selling the fisheries industry down the river, so to speak.

Just a reminder on the latter, the fisheries industry contributes 0.03% to the UK economy. 70% of agricultural output is sold to Europe. This has been made immeasurably easier because of this week’s deal.

But in a world of populism, there is little rational debate. Scare tactics, yah-boo exchanges, and downright lies dominate debate, not facts.

For Starmer, what can he do? Very little. It will be a hard slog to the next election. He will need to prove NHS waiting lists are falling, immigration is falling, and the economy is growing with tangible benefits, including an increase in housing supply.

It would help if he had a clearer philosophical narrative. This blog likes his non-ideological pragmatism, but it makes it harder to explain the ultimate destination he is trying to reach.

However, he has one major advantage. The increasingly haplessness of today’s Tory Party. Starmer will be able to differentiate himself much more clearly from Reform at the next election than in the days when it used to be a competitive race with the Tories.

Until then, it will be an uphill, thankless battle. Who would go into politics?

Republicans cower to Trump; they will suffer the consequences in the end…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Donald Trump once said: ‘I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I still wouldn’t lose any (Republican activist) voters, OK?’

Economically, Trump has done just that. Tariffs everywhere. The end of globalisation as we know it. A potential worldwide recession, higher inflation, the breakdown of traditional Western alliances. It is all in the melting pot, and the President of the United States doesn’t care. He is bulletproof, so to speak.

A President out of control…

He has always been in favour of tariffs, taking out advertisements back in the 80s supporting the concept, combining it with disgust at paying to defend countries he deemed could afford to protect themselves. He may have a point on the latter issue, but American defence companies have made a fortune in the process.

Nobody can say they didn’t know what they were electing with Trump. Except… there are no policy analyses in presidential elections. None of his views were ever really tested in debate. For example, the economic jingoism of tariffs resonates with ordinary Republican activists/voters and many others besides but not the realities/practicalities. Such rashness would always be tested in a UK General Election campaign. Just ask Theresa May and her 2017 social care proposals.

Professional Republican politicians, Reaganites if you like, who were brought up believing in free-trade, NATO, and Western democratic values have been swept aside by far-right, isolationist MAGA activists who have taken over the GOP and terrified them into silence.

Cowardice prevails. Janan Ganash of the FT at my company’s annual investment seminar back in November warned Trump, with no re-election pressures, would be unleashed. There seems to be no checks and balances amongst Republicans, professional or otherwise on his actions.

Trump today means what he says. Tariffs, Greenland, the Panama Canal, a bromance with Putin, a third term. He is serious about them all.

Republicans created this monster or, rather, failed to stop him. Whether it be a global recession or a carve up of Ukraine just to start with, they will own the grim consequences of a president who is out of control.

No morality: the world has become a marketplace

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.

Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.

Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values

A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.

This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.

The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.

Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.

Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration. It is that serious.

The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.

Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.

The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.

No morality: the world has become a marketplace

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.

Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.

Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values

A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.

This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.

The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has  insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.

Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept  if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.

Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration.  It is that serious.

The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.

Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.

The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.