We have had it all at the Conservative Party’s conference this week. Let’s just list a few of the ‘highlights’:

• The Home Secretary claimed multi-culturalism had failed, despite the background of her good self and…err…the Prime Minister. In a hard-hitting speech clearly aimed at future leadership ambitions, she warned of a ‘hurricane’ of millions of migrants coming to Britain and launched a further attack on British human rights law.
• Committed Tory, Andrew Boff, Chair of the London Assembly, was evicted from the Conference for quietly criticising Braverman’s comments on the LGBTQ+ community and, in particular, trans rights.
• Liz Truss repeated her mantra of unfunded tax cuts. Never really understanding what ‘growth’ means she was cheered on from the sidelines by the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Priti Patel and, yes, Nigel Farage, who Priti Patel was filmed dancing enthusiastically with later in the evening. According to the centrist, Tom Tugendhat, and indeed Rishi Sunak, there could always be a Conservative Party membership offer in the post to Farage… oh dear.
• Numerous Cabinet ministers and the PM himself invented Labour policies on a ‘meat tax’, re-cycling and Council restrictions on visiting shops in a post-truth, Trumpite world.
• Susan Hall, the third-rate Tory candidate for London’s mayor, implied the Jewish community felt threatened by the mayoralty of Labour’s Sadiq Kahn, a Muslim. This was later repudiated by no less than the Board of Deputies of British Jews.
• Sunak in his closing speech threw together a raft of policies from cancelling the Manchester leg of HS2 (no consultation with regional mayors including, Birmingham’s Tory mayor, Andy Street or, it seems, the Cabinet) to reforming A-levels and working up to a highly non-libertarian ban on smoking. A bold attempt to look decisive and throw off 13 years of Tory rule. It will provide dilemmas for Starmer but smacked of a desperate roll of the dice to close a 17% poll deficit.

Sunak, by default, the highest profile Tory moderate present in Manchester…

Not a vintage conference then for the Tories but where were the moderates? Who made the case for the failures of Brexit and building a closer relationship with the EU, particularly in the face of Russia’s threat on Europe’s borders? Who led packed out fringe meetings outlining the positives of immigration and tax cuts only when they can be afforded. Who headed off attacks from this now anti-establishment Party on institutions, including the judiciary?

The lunatics are truly taking over the asylum and moderates, lacking organisation, hamstrung by careerism and failing to offer a comprehensive centre-right agenda were nowhere to be seen. Last week, I attended a private dinner at which Rory Stewart spoke. The conversation was held under Chatham House rules but much of his horrified analysis was repeated on his podcast, The Rest Is Politics. He sees it as a 10 year project to drag the Tories back to the centre after yet one more lurch to the Right. One only hopes he is around to lead it, if it is not too late…

Now off to Liverpool to watch the Labour Party try and prove themselves…

You can never write the Tories off. Despite growing pessimism surrounding their prospects at the next general election, in the past week or so there have been flickers of recovery. Perhaps it is not 1997 after all or at least it is too early to tell.

Sunak hits the ground running in Manchester…

The reasons for this slight recovery in the Tories’ prospects are three-fold:

• Renewed energy from Sunak. There might not seem a coherent philosophy around mooted announcements (from diluting green measures to mostly banning smoking…) but Sunak is certainly active and his ‘defend the car measures’ have struck a nerve. How angry Starmer must be that London’s ULEZ scheme denied Labour victory in Uxbridge! It has given the Tories new heart as they create cultural divides and plays to the narrative that Labour would be a statist, heavy-handed, interfering government. The Conservative Party Conference has been more upbeat than expected so far despite interventions from the likes of Liz Truss, and economic news is gradually getting better for the government. The one misstep has been the rumoured dropping of HS2 to Manchester whilst the Conservatives were assembling in… Manchester but the damage has been less than expected so far.
• Changes of policy from Labour. Dropping a clear pledge of investing £28bn in a green economy, refusing to reverse Conservative measures announced to date on watering down green initiatives and refusing to increase taxes generally whilst wanting to spend more makes them seem shifty and insecure. Add to this, the additional diluting of their attack on private schools and pledges on workers’ rights and you start to wonder what Labour stands for. The charge that in office they will ‘revert to type’ is strong when a vacuum appears. Starmer will have to up his game at his conference with clear policy announcements and an offer of hope and optimism combined with competence.
• LibDems miss an open goal again… It was just as well their conference was poorly covered. Refusing to commit to rejoining the EU when everyone knows that’s their belief, refusing to discuss any informal pact with Labour even though we know that is the case and then, in countering that, falling out with Labour in the mid-Beds by-election which in the process could give the Tories an unexpected victory, all points to the usual amateur-hour of LibDem politics.

Opinion polls have the Labour Party’s lead narrowing slightly. It may be too late for the Tories, and there are many obstacles ahead, but their ruthless focus on maintaining power is second to none. It had better go well for the Opposition next week as it gathers in Liverpool…

If you thought Brexit was bad enough for the unity of the Tory Party, then that was only the start…

This week we have seen the ludicrous, thick-skinned Liz Truss defend her economic record, citing tax cuts and the defenestration of the ‘political and economic establishment’ and ‘institutional bureaucracy’ as a way to grow the economy. Basically, it was an attack on Rishi Sunak. What her speech failed to acknowledge was that unfunded tax cuts, no market preparation, or independent analysis of their impact simply don’t work in an inter-dependent global economy. Thatcher would be turning in her grave as a steward of economic competence… and so much for ‘take back control’. As an ex-EU member, we will never have any more freedom over economic policy making.

And why do politicians of all parties focus on ‘growth’ as if it were a one word nirvana to happiness? It only displays ignorance of what the complexities of achieving growth really mean. It is never a straightforward route on its own for enhancing standards of living.

Tactical or strategic? More confusion in the Tory Party…

Yesterday, we had more splits as elements of the Right of the Party flex their muscles. The competent Sunak seems to have been bounced, at least on timing, into announcing the watering down of commitments for achieving net zero. I wonder how Sunak equates this with securing the future of the next generation? Not one of the measures will make an ounce of difference to the living standards of voters today. It is simply about creating a cultural divide with Labour. But, at what cost?

Other elements of the Tory Party are furious. Many feel the announcement is both wrong, chaotic, with little if no electoral benefit. It smacks of a government in its final death throws. Ironically, much of the car industry is furious too. Participants want a clear legislative framework in which to make their long-term investment plans, and this has just tripped them up.

The Tory Party is split essentially into three groups; moderates, mostly on the backfoot for a generation; the libertarian Right, mostly in the ascendency, and the traditional, socially conservative, authoritarian Right who are stooges of libertarians when needed to shore up their dominance. Sometimes, the divided Right unites on fundamentals like Brexit, for example (but not immigration), but mostly their aim is to get rid of moderates. Easy, really, as they rarely show backbone and are not in tune with today’s grassroots.

Time for the scrapping Tories to sort out their divisions in private, free from the constraints of office and long-term policy making.

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So, there we have it. The tiniest of Cabinet reshuffles caused by Ben Wallace stepping down as Defence Secretary. He is replaced by Grant Shapps who takes up his 5th, yes 5th, Cabinet job in the last 12 months. Widely considered a lightweight by his colleagues and without any relevant Defence experience, he is nevertheless seen as a good communicator. Forget about the Ukraine war. He got the job apparently because Sunak didn’t want one of his better spokespeople bogged down at Energy when he reneges on some of his green policies to exacerbate a cultural war with Labour.

Grant Shapps and his dizzying change of roles…

And you wonder why people despair of politics?

The Civil Service often directs government in individual departments simply in the absence of any knowledgeable ministers who have an agenda and stick around. Of course, reshuffles are part of a Prime Minister’s armoury but not to the extent of the chaos of recent years. The Tories’ record has been lamentable.

Here are just a few statistics on the number of office holders in key posts since 2019:

• Chancellor: 5
• Home secretary: 4
• Housing secretary: 4
• Health secretary: 4
• Business/Energy secretary: 5
• Education secretary: 6
• Northern Ireland: 4
• Trade: Role 3

How can this lead to decent long-term policy making? How on earth can ministers keep up to speed with the detail of their latest role and provide stable leadership in their departments? Political expediency is everything now, more than ever before if you look at comparable statistics of ministerial turnover going further back. And the public notice, becoming wearier and more cynical with each change.

Overwhelmed by Brexit, then Covid and a merry-go-round of ministers, the Civil Service, for all its faults, one suspects is often just trying to keep the show on the road. It is not so much the ‘blob’, just the professional arm of government.

For regular readers of this blog, you may remember my recent musings on my experience of the NHS. I was treated for the separation of key tendons from my kneecap in Lancaster and London hospitals courtesy of the actions of our boisterous rescue black Labrador, ‘Norm’. We still have him, by the way, but more of that later…

Norm got his just deserts… it feels like one-all now…

Critical of a lengthy 8 day stay in Lancaster Hospital with no MRI facilities for 4 days, and crazy information sharing procedures between hospitals, it is only fair that I update you on a more positive note.

My treatment at University College Hospital (UCH) in London has since been outstanding. I have had or am having a month of hydrotherapy sessions, bi-weekly physio appointments, a tailored exercise regime for the gym, and access to orthopaedic specialists who are now no longer needed. The level of care has been heart-warming. Who needs private health insurance…, at least for this condition…

I am told by those in the know that UCH is one of the best run hospitals in the country with post Covid waiting lists down on pre Covid levels. It attracts some of the best medical talent, but it is not all about money. It is exceptionally well-run albeit with a slightly repetitive online communications set-up.

A few extra overall observations as I complete my recovery. Whilst accountability is a good thing, too many ring-fenced NHS budgets seem to have created fiefdoms and inefficiencies. This is certainly the view of some senior clinicians and administrators. Best practices in one hospital should be more openly shared with others. The performance of hospital trusts is too variable, and after the terrible Letby trial and concerns of doctors about her behaviour being ignored, registering hospital managers seems a good idea to explore. The IT in the NHS is hopeless and there has to be a genuine debate on the risks to patient confidentiality versus a more comprehensive information sharing system.

Anyway, I am back on my feet being a perfect pupil, undertaking all the rigorous physio exercises set for me as homework, with the benefits clearly visible. Doctors say my recovery is remarkable. I will take this compliment and not question whether it is generally or for my age…

As for Norm, he is a happy boy despite a well-timed castration… Ouch! But it feels like one-all now…

Enjoy what is left of the Summer.

If you absorb media content, the world is an unhappy place; global warming, the Ukraine war, the march of the far-right in Europe and the resurgence of Trump in America. Closer to home, we have rail strikes, doctors’ strikes, faltering public services including an increasingly unstable NHS and an unhappy body politic generally.

Clouds can have silver linings…

None of these issues and their day-to-day impact should be underestimated, particularly with the hottest July on record, but as we head off on our holidays it would be wise to consider some positives, if for no other reason, to keep us sane…

Wind and solar power produced a record amount of the world’s electricity last year, and this year is set to be a new record. Rising temperatures and their impact are creating a sense of climate change urgency amongst the world’s largest polluters, notably China and America. Just this week, a new global coalition was formed to specifically cut methane emissions, which cause one-third of global warming. There are now more protected areas across land and ocean due to cross-border agreements than ever before, and all polls point to fewer climate change deniers generally. The direction of travel is reassuring, if not the speed.

The rise of the far-right in Europe is worrying but not inevitable. For example, in last Sunday’s Spanish elections, the hard-right Vox Party almost halved its seats in parliament and consequently is not in a position to support a right-wing government as a junior coalition partner. Trump’s legal woes mount, and this blog is still firmly of the belief he will not stand or, if he does, will not be able to beat even the ageing Biden. The pretty vile deSantis, potentially worse than Trump, is also in trouble. Finally, whilst the tragedy of the Ukraine war continues, Putin’s reign looks more unstable than ever and who would have bet on a stalemate with Russia when this conflict began? And with Turkey now dropping its objections, NATO welcomes its two new members, Sweden and Finland. There are no benefits to Russia from its actions in Ukraine.

In the UK, most public sector workers including nurses have settled their pay claims with the government. Sunak is a massive improvement on Johnson and Truss. The Tories’ period of madness seems to be over and Labour under Starmer looks ready to govern fairly competently if the current desire for change becomes irresistible. The electorate actually has a choice this time!

So, as we head off on our summer breaks, there are some reasons to be optimistic which even this blog has noticed…

Happy holidays!

It could have been worse for the Tories. They are mostly not safe anywhere but clung on in Uxbridge, where the single issue of extending the Ultra Low Emissions Zone saved them.

But across the three by-elections, the Tories’ share of the vote dropped by 21% in line with polls. It is not a reflection on Sunak, more popular than his Party, but austerity followed by a failing, divisive Brexit, followed by the chaotic amorality of Johnson, followed by the car-crash premiership of Truss. As this blog has written several times, Sunak’s competent premiership has come too late to rescue this discredited, over-long period of Tory rule.

Voters have had enough… Tories are mostly not safe anywhere...

The simple question to ask voters after 13 years is, do you feel the country is in a better place than in 2010? On current evidence, the answer is resoundingly no, even if there are some well-hidden achievements along the way.

But the Westminster bubble grinds on, turning its excoriating gaze onto Labour (the LibDems can be parked for another day). What do they stand for? Will the economy be safe in their hands? How green will they be and at what cost? How will they improve public services when there is no money? How will they deal with trade unions and their left-wing generally? Will they cuddle up to the EU and, if so, make a meaningful pact with it? Ultimately, is Starmer political enough? All legitimate questions, but today, they miss the point.

It is anybody but the Tories and Labour remain on course to win the next General Election, probably with an overall majority. In fact, in some ways, the results are extra bad news for the Tories in that the London result will encourage Starmer’s safety first strategy. It doesn’t really matter whether he gains power through enthusiasm or stay-at-home Tory voters. The die has been cast.

As for the Conservative Party? They will have some real soul-searching to do in Opposition. Will they move to the Right? Probably, if their membership and some unpleasant right-wing factions have anything to do with it. But the country is screaming out for a sensible centre-right alternative, and this is where this Party should lie, like it used to, if it is to oust a future Labour government quickly.

If there is one thing that would drive this deeply anti-Brexit blog into the arms of Brexiteers, it would be the rise of what appears to be soft fascism across Europe.

The outlook does not look good. The far-right are prospering everywhere.

In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s hard right coalition led by her arch-conservative Brothers of Italy party took power last October and is now in the process of trying to impose its conservative moral values on the population. For example, as reported in the Financial Times yesterday, they do not believe same sex couples should raise children. Last week, the birth certificate of a son born to a lesbian couple was annulled by a Padova city prosecutor with backing from the minister for family and birth rates. The interior ministry has ordered city mayors to stop automatically issuing birth certificates recognising same-sex couples as children’s legal parents, leading to lengthy legal disputes. This is only the start, one suspects, of a further erosion of gay rights.

Europe’s worrying drift to the far-right…

In France, the National Rally under Marine Le Pen has hit 24% in the polls. And this rise will only be further fuelled by the riots taking place there. She leads opinion polls in her response to them and is preparing yet another run, her fourth, at the presidency in 2027. Nobody is betting that next time, she isn’t in with a strong chance of winning.

In Germany, the hard-right, Putin sympathising AfD has hit 18% in the polls, achieving third place and snapping at the heels of the Social Democrats. In Sweden, the hard-right Sweden Democrats are in third place at 18%, and its equivalent in Spain, the Vox Party, are in a similar position. Then, in Hungary, Orban and his Fidesz party, who have governed since 2010, continue to gradually erode press freedoms and the independence of the judiciary, flouting the EU in the process.

There are various factors driving this trend. Immigration, inflation, weak economies, and expensive green policies are all a boost to anti-establishment, populist parties, even if, in the end, they are usually far worse at governing than moderates. The implosion of centre-right parties is also helping drive politics to the extremes.

But for all the frustrations of modern life today, there is no excuse for embracing extremism, particularly with Putin on your doorstep.

Wearingly, and with some success, hard-right, populists have never given up, even when they initially lose at the ballot-box. Whether it is Le Pen in France or even Trump in the US, it is a constant whack-a-mole game to defeat them. Democrats everywhere cannot let their guard down.

Europe certainly benefits from the largely moderating influence of the UK. It would have been invaluable if we had remained a member of the EU. We have much work to do to help keep our neighbours on a centrist path, even if nowadays from the sidelines.

Yesterday was good for the Tories. Last week’s departure of Boris Johnson from Parliament was followed by a resounding acceptance of the Privilege’s Committee’s recommendations. He didn’t even get to keep his parliamentary pass. 118 Tory MPs voted in favour of the report. It should have been more but at least it gives Rishi Sunak a breathing space to define his premiership, free from the antics of at least one of his predecessors.

Today’s news was less good, however. The UK’s inflation rate remained at 8.7% with core inflation actually rising from 6.8% to 7.1%. The equivalent figures are 6 per cent in France, 6.3 per cent in Germany, 7.1 per cent across the whole of the EU and 2.7 per cent in the US, using the most comparable measure, according to the Financial Times.

Stubbornly high inflation is causing an electoral headache for the government.

Interest rates will rise on Thursday by at least 25bps to 4.75% and the squeals of mortgage pain will be heard across the country.

The problem for Sunak is that his five pledges which, statistically at least, mostly seemed possible to achieve just a few months ago do not appear so any longer. The squeeze on the UK economy will have to carry on for longer than expected and he may miss his 5% end-year inflation target. NHS waiting lists have risen recently. Debt will rise as rates rise. Ironies of ironies, the only priority he has had some success on is ‘small boats’ with crossings down 20% so far this year.

Labour has yet to fully convince on the economy, but it is reining in spending promises and Rachel Reeves, the Shadow Chancellor, is increasingly coming across as highly competent. Combined with the shenanigans over Johnson and grim inflation news, that growing sense the Tories have been in power too long, and it is time for a change, has been reinforced.

Sunak’s logical route out of this mess was progress on his key priorities, but today that seems harder to achieve. Add in positive news for Labour out of Scotland, and the swingometer between a 1992 versus 1997 general election result is now more heavily leaning towards the latter.