Not a good week for the government. On Monday came the reshuffle. Sunak made the best of a bad job. Bringing back Cameron was a genius if for no other reason it displaced news that he had fired the vile Suella Braverman. Not only had the former Home Secretary disgraced her office, seemingly having no regard for her responsibilities, but she was actually useless in achieving anything. For Sunak, not a great moment. If you sup with the devil, you have to accept the consequences…

Cameron brought back as Foreign Secretary; a bold move but the jury’s out…

The overall switch to moderate conservatism is welcome but it is too little and too late. As Matthew Parris so shrewdly observed in The Times: ‘…in yet another stand-off with yet another lunatic on the party’s right, there’s no accommodating these people. They will come for you. In the end, they will always come for you.’ Braverman’s resignation letter so proves this point. The damage has been done.

As for Cameron, he arrives with baggage. Clearly a heavy weight but success in foreign affairs from his time as PM was distinctly patchy (Libya?). You can subsequently add the Greensill affair. More importantly, a back to the future moment hardly aligns with the earlier message of Sunak being the ‘change candidate’, admittedly always a long shot after 13 years of Tory rule.

Then we move to Rwanda. A more unpleasant policy is hard to imagine. And the fuss over the Court ruling declaring the government’s deportation policy illegal and Sunak’s response undoes any tack to the centre he tried to achieve with the reshuffle. It all feels like the proverbial rearranging of deck chairs on the Titanic. Sunak is a competent PM, but he has arrived too late to undo the damage of his predecessors and, frankly, looked hollowed out at PMQs on Wednesday. Who could blame him.

Turning to Labour, it was not a brilliant week either. 50 MPs, including eight on the front bench, defied Starmer’s line on the Middle East conflict by demanding a ceasefire from Israel. It stores up potential trouble for the future, but not now.

The voters have made their mind up. It is anyone but the Tories who have continued to self-destruct even under Sunak. A relatively minor Labour spat does not matter. It is game over for a deeply split Conservative Party, which no longer knows what it stands for except a general air of unpleasantness in their public discourse.

Politics is exhausting in the US. Election cycles are non-stop and and then there is Trump… The media are obsessed with him and it is almost as if the more an outlet is hostile to him, the more obsessed it gets. There is wall to wall coverage of Trump on CNN for example, particularly as he is currently starring in a New York courtroom production, and politics here has become a permanent psychodrama. But one senses that voters are tired of it all. Except for hard-core MAGA supporters who have captured the Republican Party, there is a hidden consensus one suspects, that whatever the dissatisfaction with Biden, Trump is unfit to be President.

Earlier in the week a New York Times poll showed Trump ahead of Biden in 5 out of 6 swing states. It got much coverage. But what got less coverage was that if Trump gets convicted, those numbers look very different.

And then there were State election results this week which were a huge victory for the Democrats predominantly driven by a desire to protect abortion rights. The Democrat governor was re-elected in Kentucky, Democrats took control of the General Assembly in Virginia which will block any reform to State abortion laws and, in Ohio, voters passed a constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion access. If the Republicans can’t win now, when can they?

Finally, to add insult to injury, ex-Trump, five largely irrelevant candidates, all in their own way, defined by Trump, debated why they should be the Republican presidential nominee. Oh dear. Except perhaps for Nikki Haley, the quality was dire. Trump has drained the Republicans of any talent.

The quality of Republican candidates plummeting under the malign influence of Trump…

Amidst all this noise, it is worth taking a reality check. Whatever voters’ views about Biden and his age, Trump is simply too toxic to be a winner. He is facing multiple legal cases and even if he became President, he can’t pardon himself from a State conviction. Incredibly a Presidency run from jail is a bizarre possibility.

It may be a rash prediction, but one feels Trump won’t even make it to being the Republican nominee (watch Nikki Haley), but if he does he will be defeated by Biden. Why America has to choose from two candidates with a combined age of 160 is a topic for another blog but sanity will prevail if that is the final choice.

After that, what the media fills their air time with in a post-Trump world is anyone’s guess.

The Covid enquiry is unfolding gruesomely. The chaos, lack of strategy, general poison between those who were meant to keep the country safe and disregard for the fate of older people in particular is shocking. But add to that a PM going AWOL in the run-up to the pandemic and then the Downing Street parties during it, and it is a shameful exposure of attitudes and behaviour at the highest levels of public administration.

A horror show at the top of government…

As this week unfolded, it actually got worse. ‘Nicknamed ‘Party Marty’ for organising a bring your own booze gathering in Downing Street, Martin Reynolds, who headed the private office of the Prime Minister, described planning for a Covid type pandemic as ‘grossly deficient’ but couldn’t explain why he didn’t chase down Johnson when he disappeared for 10 days in February, presumably to write his book on Shakespeare. Meanwhile, he appeared confused about why his future WhatsApp messages to senior colleagues were mysteriously set to disappear, failing to provide any valid explanation. Yesterday, in a display of breathtaking narcissism, we heard Matt Hancock, the former Health Secretary, now turned celebrity TV wannabee, wanted a final say on who lived or died from Covid if health resources needed to be rationed.

If no crimes have been committed, we should change the law. On show so far has been a shocking dereliction of duty, incompetence, and a failure of anyone in the system to take responsibility for mistakes made. Third-rate politicians, second-rate civil servants, and no responsibility taken either by earlier senior figures such as former health ministers or chief medical officers to explain why we started this pandemic so unprepared.

Sweden, which mostly didn’t lock down has completed its Covid enquiry.

Ours will go on for years until everyone has forgotten its purpose in true British governance style.

We have yet to hear directly from Johnson, Sunak et al, but it hardly matters. You can forgive the British public for believing nobody will be held accountable. They are used to it. No one was held accountable for the crash of 2007/8, which wreaked so much havoc on the economy as a whole and disproportionately on people at the bottom of the economic pile. Mounting cynicism of the governing class in its wake partly led to Brexit.

The only silver lining of this very dark cloud is the fate of Boris Johnson. We have all met people like him. Glib, superficially charismatic, a believer that rules were to be obeyed by “little people,” not themselves, he attained a position he was never suited for. This enquiry has and will continue to finish him politically. For that reason and that reason alone, it is probably just about worth it.

This blog does not plan to write about the tragic events in the Middle East. There are far more expert voices than this one. Although, one is curious to know more about the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, who is allegedly a billionaire living not in the Gaza Strip but Doha, Qatar, and why there have been no elections in the Gaza Strip since 2007.

On to three other topics of interest at least to the author:

The good – the election result in Poland

Poland’s opposition parties won enough seats in Sunday’s general election to take power from the Law and Justice (PiS) party which has ruled the country since 2015, confirmed by the National Electoral Commission on Tuesday morning. This is fantastic news. Poland was on a slippery slope to authoritarianism under the PiS, as it eroded the independence of the judiciary and the media. A record turnout of nearly 75% ensured its defeat with women, young people, City dwellers and moderates generally voting in droves. It repels the anti-EU, anti-migration, anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric of the PiS. Good riddance to them.

Stunning result for Donald Tusk, likely to be Poland’s next Prime Minister

The bad – India’s Supreme Court rejects same sex marriage

Earlier this week, the Indian Supreme Court rejected the applications of 21 petitioners, including same-sex couples, trans people and associations for freedom to marry. The judges considered that they were not empowered to make such a decision and referred this responsibility to Parliament, as the government had wanted.

The hopes of the LGBTQ+ community were high, as India’s highest court had issued a landmark ruling in 2018 decriminalizing homosexuality. It is unlikely that Prime Minister Modi will initiate more liberal laws on marriage or, indeed, the rights of same-sex couples to adopt children, as he is illiberal himself and has shown hostility to any such initiatives. The judges were split on a number of issues, however, and one hopes a change to India’s laws is only a matter of time.

The ugly – the election for Speaker of the House of Representatives in the US

The position remains vacant since hard-right Republicans ousted their own Kevin McCarthy recently. In pole position to take the role is the vile, pro-Trump Jim Jordan who has tried to bully colleagues into voting for him. He has failed twice, and his prospects are fading. Why does this matter? The House is essentially frozen without a Speaker in the midst of an international crisis and an imminent government shutdown over budgets. The Speaker is also third in-line to the Presidency. One hopes moderate Republicans finally discover their voice and prevail.

That’s it for now. UK politics is somewhat becalmed by consensus on the Middle East although there are some interesting by-elections today which will give further pointers to the likely outcome of a General Election.

Despite being overshadowed by the terrible events in the Middle East, this week’s conference in Liverpool was a successful one for the Labour Party.

A few aspects stood out. The conference was packed, speeches were delivered competently without faux pas, and there was a notable if slightly nervous buzz about imminent power around the corner. Quite a contrast with a gloomy, divided Tory conference completely wrong-footed by the HS2 announcement.

Second, the quality of Labour’s front bench is starting to become evident. Politics is healthier if it is not all about the leader, and Labour is starting to look like a government in waiting. You don’t have to like them to picture Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Rachel Reeves, Wes Streeting et al in Cabinet, equally if not more competent than their Tory counterparts. It is not a bad thing if the Party is more popular than its leader either. Mind you, some grate already such as the patronising, rather erratic David Lammy but you can’t have it all.

Labour positively glittered in contrast to the Tories…

Two speeches particularly stood out. First, Rachel Reeves. Her speech was excellent and certainly cements a view she is a future leader of the Labour Party in waiting. Well-delivered, just about enough new announcements but, most of all, fiscally conservative enough to reassure voters.

Second was Keir Starmer’s speech. Certainly, he was helped by a demonstrator pouring glitter over him. A common criticism that he doesn’t sparkle enough was put to rest. He dealt with the incident well and delivered a strong oration.

Both leading figures talked about eliminating waste, pursuing tax fraud, freeing planning laws to build more homes, strengthening the NHS in a way which didn’t scare the horses.

The Labour Party conference will not be remembered for much due to the backdrop of tragic international events. The difference is that the Tories would probably rather wish their conference wasn’t remembered for much either…

We have had it all at the Conservative Party’s conference this week. Let’s just list a few of the ‘highlights’:

• The Home Secretary claimed multi-culturalism had failed, despite the background of her good self and…err…the Prime Minister. In a hard-hitting speech clearly aimed at future leadership ambitions, she warned of a ‘hurricane’ of millions of migrants coming to Britain and launched a further attack on British human rights law.
• Committed Tory, Andrew Boff, Chair of the London Assembly, was evicted from the Conference for quietly criticising Braverman’s comments on the LGBTQ+ community and, in particular, trans rights.
• Liz Truss repeated her mantra of unfunded tax cuts. Never really understanding what ‘growth’ means she was cheered on from the sidelines by the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Priti Patel and, yes, Nigel Farage, who Priti Patel was filmed dancing enthusiastically with later in the evening. According to the centrist, Tom Tugendhat, and indeed Rishi Sunak, there could always be a Conservative Party membership offer in the post to Farage… oh dear.
• Numerous Cabinet ministers and the PM himself invented Labour policies on a ‘meat tax’, re-cycling and Council restrictions on visiting shops in a post-truth, Trumpite world.
• Susan Hall, the third-rate Tory candidate for London’s mayor, implied the Jewish community felt threatened by the mayoralty of Labour’s Sadiq Kahn, a Muslim. This was later repudiated by no less than the Board of Deputies of British Jews.
• Sunak in his closing speech threw together a raft of policies from cancelling the Manchester leg of HS2 (no consultation with regional mayors including, Birmingham’s Tory mayor, Andy Street or, it seems, the Cabinet) to reforming A-levels and working up to a highly non-libertarian ban on smoking. A bold attempt to look decisive and throw off 13 years of Tory rule. It will provide dilemmas for Starmer but smacked of a desperate roll of the dice to close a 17% poll deficit.

Sunak, by default, the highest profile Tory moderate present in Manchester…

Not a vintage conference then for the Tories but where were the moderates? Who made the case for the failures of Brexit and building a closer relationship with the EU, particularly in the face of Russia’s threat on Europe’s borders? Who led packed out fringe meetings outlining the positives of immigration and tax cuts only when they can be afforded. Who headed off attacks from this now anti-establishment Party on institutions, including the judiciary?

The lunatics are truly taking over the asylum and moderates, lacking organisation, hamstrung by careerism and failing to offer a comprehensive centre-right agenda were nowhere to be seen. Last week, I attended a private dinner at which Rory Stewart spoke. The conversation was held under Chatham House rules but much of his horrified analysis was repeated on his podcast, The Rest Is Politics. He sees it as a 10 year project to drag the Tories back to the centre after yet one more lurch to the Right. One only hopes he is around to lead it, if it is not too late…

Now off to Liverpool to watch the Labour Party try and prove themselves…

You can never write the Tories off. Despite growing pessimism surrounding their prospects at the next general election, in the past week or so there have been flickers of recovery. Perhaps it is not 1997 after all or at least it is too early to tell.

Sunak hits the ground running in Manchester…

The reasons for this slight recovery in the Tories’ prospects are three-fold:

• Renewed energy from Sunak. There might not seem a coherent philosophy around mooted announcements (from diluting green measures to mostly banning smoking…) but Sunak is certainly active and his ‘defend the car measures’ have struck a nerve. How angry Starmer must be that London’s ULEZ scheme denied Labour victory in Uxbridge! It has given the Tories new heart as they create cultural divides and plays to the narrative that Labour would be a statist, heavy-handed, interfering government. The Conservative Party Conference has been more upbeat than expected so far despite interventions from the likes of Liz Truss, and economic news is gradually getting better for the government. The one misstep has been the rumoured dropping of HS2 to Manchester whilst the Conservatives were assembling in… Manchester but the damage has been less than expected so far.
• Changes of policy from Labour. Dropping a clear pledge of investing £28bn in a green economy, refusing to reverse Conservative measures announced to date on watering down green initiatives and refusing to increase taxes generally whilst wanting to spend more makes them seem shifty and insecure. Add to this, the additional diluting of their attack on private schools and pledges on workers’ rights and you start to wonder what Labour stands for. The charge that in office they will ‘revert to type’ is strong when a vacuum appears. Starmer will have to up his game at his conference with clear policy announcements and an offer of hope and optimism combined with competence.
• LibDems miss an open goal again… It was just as well their conference was poorly covered. Refusing to commit to rejoining the EU when everyone knows that’s their belief, refusing to discuss any informal pact with Labour even though we know that is the case and then, in countering that, falling out with Labour in the mid-Beds by-election which in the process could give the Tories an unexpected victory, all points to the usual amateur-hour of LibDem politics.

Opinion polls have the Labour Party’s lead narrowing slightly. It may be too late for the Tories, and there are many obstacles ahead, but their ruthless focus on maintaining power is second to none. It had better go well for the Opposition next week as it gathers in Liverpool…

If you thought Brexit was bad enough for the unity of the Tory Party, then that was only the start…

This week we have seen the ludicrous, thick-skinned Liz Truss defend her economic record, citing tax cuts and the defenestration of the ‘political and economic establishment’ and ‘institutional bureaucracy’ as a way to grow the economy. Basically, it was an attack on Rishi Sunak. What her speech failed to acknowledge was that unfunded tax cuts, no market preparation, or independent analysis of their impact simply don’t work in an inter-dependent global economy. Thatcher would be turning in her grave as a steward of economic competence… and so much for ‘take back control’. As an ex-EU member, we will never have any more freedom over economic policy making.

And why do politicians of all parties focus on ‘growth’ as if it were a one word nirvana to happiness? It only displays ignorance of what the complexities of achieving growth really mean. It is never a straightforward route on its own for enhancing standards of living.

Tactical or strategic? More confusion in the Tory Party…

Yesterday, we had more splits as elements of the Right of the Party flex their muscles. The competent Sunak seems to have been bounced, at least on timing, into announcing the watering down of commitments for achieving net zero. I wonder how Sunak equates this with securing the future of the next generation? Not one of the measures will make an ounce of difference to the living standards of voters today. It is simply about creating a cultural divide with Labour. But, at what cost?

Other elements of the Tory Party are furious. Many feel the announcement is both wrong, chaotic, with little if no electoral benefit. It smacks of a government in its final death throws. Ironically, much of the car industry is furious too. Participants want a clear legislative framework in which to make their long-term investment plans, and this has just tripped them up.

The Tory Party is split essentially into three groups; moderates, mostly on the backfoot for a generation; the libertarian Right, mostly in the ascendency, and the traditional, socially conservative, authoritarian Right who are stooges of libertarians when needed to shore up their dominance. Sometimes, the divided Right unites on fundamentals like Brexit, for example (but not immigration), but mostly their aim is to get rid of moderates. Easy, really, as they rarely show backbone and are not in tune with today’s grassroots.

Time for the scrapping Tories to sort out their divisions in private, free from the constraints of office and long-term policy making.

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