The invasion of Ukraine is so tragic, so pointless and so self-defeating, words fail commentators. Surely it marks the end of Putin and Russian expansionism in the medium term. But the shorter-term costs will sadly be enormous.
But turn to China for a moment. They are playing a fairly clever hand. Abstaining in the UN, offering to mediate, criticising the invasion but also Ukraine joining NATO, they are just about holding their own.
A new type of opportunity for China…
But not for long. They will have to get off the fence. Trust in China is very low, and the West is hardening its stance against those who threaten its democratic future…finally.
Could this be China’s moment to reposition itself? President Xi Jinping must realise Putin is an unstable ally unlikely to recover from his disastrous Ukrainian venture. He must also realise that the West can wreak untold economic havoc if they remain united. China’s success story is all about growth. Imagine if this was put in jeopardy by an attack on Taiwan for example?
China could be really smart by dropping its default bellicose behaviour, instead extending its influence through a new, mature, more sophisticated approach to international affairs, which allows them to move closer to the heart of the international community.
Imagine. Putin oversteps the mark one last time and China joins the West in condemning Russia at the UN. It would also have the additional advantage of stealing a march on arch regional competitor, India, whose nationalist Prime Minister, Modi, has appalled observers by his equivocation over the invasion. China starts to court Taiwan and indeed the people of Hong Kong, not threaten them. China reduces tensions in the South China Sea. China, without apology, makes quiet concessions on the treatment of the Uyghurs, subtly acknowledging a new balance between security and human rights.
One accepts this may seem too naïve and idealistic in such grim times. But it would mark China’s coming of age as a self-confident international community member. It would be smart politics by shaping events further through wholly constructive actions.
One can only hope. And as we watch war unfold brutally in Europe, that is all we have just now.
Inside Right Politics 