Tag: UK politics

2024 predictions: a momentous year for elections

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

For political geeks or those who simply care about democracy, 2024 will be a huge year. More than 2 billion people across 50 countries will go to the polls and the consequences for many will reverberate for a generation. Of course, some of these elections are more free than others.

As one gears up nervously to make predictions for the year ahead, time to review this blog’s predictions for 2023. Not a bad year actually although apologies in advance for Trump…

  • There will be no UK General Election in 2023 – an easy tick
  • Sunak’s style will not quite resonate with the electorate – tick
  • Biden will run again – tick so far…
  • The Ukraine war will last into 2024 – tick
  • China will not invade Taiwan but the threat will rise – an easyish tick
  • Erdogan will win the presidency again in Turkey – tick
  • DeSantis will trump Trump – oops, massive cross

It’s all about elections in 2024…

So here goes, insiderightpolitics’ calculated gut feel:

First, to the UK. Sunak this week sort of confirmed there will be no election until the second half of 2024. Pretty obvious really. The Tories are 18-20 per cent behind in the polls, Sunak has only met one of his five pledges, recent tax cuts will only gradually start to be felt even as the overall tax burden continues to rise and time is needed to announce more. Sunak will want his 2 years as PM before, you heard it here first… the Tories go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation. One keeps hearing that Starmer hasn’t ‘sealed the deal’ and the Tories may make a surprise recovery to at least achieve a hung parliament, but I don’t buy it. Labour will do well in Scotland, the LibDems in the South. Reform UK will pull the rug from the Tories in the ‘Red Wall’. The sheer number of groups who want the Tories out will overwhelm their campaign. It is time for a change and even they know it.

The Tories move further to the Right after the election. Kemi Badenoch is the front-runner currently but there is a long way to go. Expect culture wars to feature and a bit of cozying up to Reform UK. Oh dear. This prediction is a no brainer. Tory moderates are split and simply, well, too moderate. It will take a generation before they find their backbone, and all this assumes there is no change to the electoral system. Rory Stewart once intimated he might lead the Tories in 10 years’ time, but he has also just intimated he would happily serve under Starmer, so no, he won’t.

Trump. This is a brave prediction, but he will not win the presidency and may not even be a candidate. Commentators have consistently underestimated the Democrat’s fortunes, either in the mid-terms or recently in State elections. Polls which put Trump ahead change their tune if he is convicted of anything. His best bet is Biden and Biden’s best bet is Trump. Neither of course may be on the ballot by November (don’t underestimate Trump’s health challenges as well as indictments) but Biden will beat Trump if it comes to that. All bets are off however if it is Biden versus Nikki Haley. She is running a smart campaign whilst DeSantis is running a dumb one.

There are many elections in Europe. Not least EU elections to the European Parliament. The populist Right will make gains notably in France, Italy and Germany but gains will be driven by frustration rather than belief and will not be as extensive as forecast.

Oh, come on, give it to me. Putin will win in Russia and, of course, Modi in India.

On other matters, the war with Ukraine will grind on throughout 2024 but Western resolve will hold up. It is doing wonders (Hungry not withstanding) to Europe’s understanding of the need to wean itself off American protection with their split Congress problems.

This blog avoids analysis of the Middle East – there are many more experts than I – but Netanyahu will not see out the year as Israel’s Prime Minister. His aggressive strategy towards the Palestinians, really all about staying in power, has manifestly failed and his sinister judicial laws rejected by Israel’s Supreme Court. This cat has used up his nine lives, sadly too late for many.

So there you go. A fascinating but scary year ahead. Even those not interested in politics should realise that their futures for years will be shaped by the outcomes of elections in 2024.

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Tories head towards the abyss…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Sunak seemed such a breath of fresh air. Polite, diligent, hard-working, technically skilled, good at PMQs. It seemed as if he would rescue the Tories, at least to the extent of minimising their defeat.

No longer. Weighed down by a fundamentally divided party, attacked at every turn by the angry Right, it seems as though he has lost his way. Sunak no longer resonates with the public as his strategic policy choices become increasingly confusing. He was the ‘change candidate’, always a struggle after 13 years of Tory rule, but brought back Cameron. He cancelled HS2 to Manchester whilst in… Manchester. And although it might not resonate very widely, as leader of a party that is meant to be in favour of a smaller, non-intrusive State, he announced he would make it an offence for anyone born after 2009 to be sold tobacco. A little populist spat with Greece over the Elgin marbles recently just made Sunak look small and added to questions about his political judgement.

Things are going from bad to worse…

A solid Autumn statement was too little too late. The tax burden is still rising, public services are still failing, and no one is really listening anymore because few believe the Tories will be around in the next few months to implement any longer-term tax and spend plans.

And then the obsession with illegal (and legal) migration. Sunak has refused to face down the Right on this issue, managing to seem weak, incompetent and illiberal all at the same time. Surely, he has nothing to lose. Whatever treaty amendments are made with Rwanda, the policy is now in tatters. Costing £165 million and rising, one doubts a single plane will take off to this destination before the next General Election. He has ignored or is ignoring sensible, practical solutions advocated by his party’s Left, such as constructive cooperation with the EU, because he feels he needs higher profile, more definitively ‘red meat solutions’. The problem with this approach is that he upsets moderate Tory voters and fails to appease his right-wing who are watching the rise of Reform in the polls with increasing alarm.

Net legal migration figures have soared, illegal migration still feels out of control. The new Home Secretary, James Cleverly, has had his past moderate comments on the topic thrown back at him, consequently plummeting down the popularity league table amongst Tory Party members. Crazy.

Sunak appears harried and who could blame him if he has had enough. The Tories need to leave office, move to the Right in private and look forward to many years in the wilderness, before regaining commonsense with an expanded, more representative grassroots base, frankly without the need of a fair proportion of their current membership at all.

Starmer has become a lucky politician and is being treated as the next Prime Minister, which in itself, allows him to gain stature. In the face of all the uneasy compromises Starmer made to become leader, just this week he embraced Thatcher and fiscal conservatism, straight out of the Tony Blair playbook. He can afford to because brutally, suddenly, his Tory opponents have collapsed.

Tories damned by latest YouGov poll…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

It has not been a good start to the political season for the Tories. The concrete debacle in schools plays directly into Labour’s narrative and voter concerns more generally that the country just isn’t working under this government. The problem for the Tories is that after 14 years in power, however unfair on some issues, there is nowhere left for them to hide.

But this morning’s YouGov poll outlined in The Times is the most startling confirmation yet of the Tories’ decline. This blog is being written whilst travelling, so no images, I am afraid, but what could capture these results…?

Over half the public will not contemplate voting Conservative at the next election. The Conservative Party is seen as just too right wing on all major issues, specifically public service spending. Only on transgender rights and illegal migration is there some alignment, but these are not priorities for the electorate.

Sunak is the most competent PM since a pre-Brexit Cameron, but he seems not to be resonating with the electorate. Only 26% think he is doing a good job, and he has a terrible approval rating of minus 41% capped only by the Tories’ approval rating of minus 48%. Starmer is in smaller negative territory but is less popular than his party. Ironically, that is not a bad place to be.

Labour is starting to feel like a government in waiting and with a few positive policy announcements, could clean up at the next election. 2024 is certainly starting to feel like 1997, even if there is not the same enthusiasm as there was for Blair.

As for the Conservative Party, it needs to move towards the centre. If the siren voices of its right-wing prevail, it is game over for a generation.

The Bernie Sanders effect comes to the UK

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The reverberations of the crash of 2007/8 continue to be underestimated and the public is sick of austerity. Expectations for the Labour Party were so low that it has also been easy for them to outperform and Corbyn is quite the natural campaigner. Despite his largely inept front bench he has looked and sounded fine and he is now our own Bernie Sanders, stirring young voters in particular with a mixture of indignation and largesse. The response from the Conservative Party has been wooden and flat footed at best and that is being polite.

Why have the Conservatives been so hopeless? First, manifestos certainly matter when they are re-written mid-campaign….and it was also enormously complacent to assume that Theresa May on her own was enough to secure a substantial victory. Few leaders can withstand the scrutiny of an election campaign unscathed so to make the election about one person was high risk. Several members of the front bench have been scandalously under-used and that takes me back to that manifesto. It is under-pinned with sound principles and has been appallingly defended but why weren’t key cabinet ministers given a final say over the most controversial parts? The need for secrecy is obvious but unelected special advisers are not sufficient substitute for elected politicians who understand the ebb and flow of an increasingly fickle electorate. David Cameron had George Osborne. Theresa May has to enjoy her job more, trust her colleagues more and find an equivalent. She will not survive another five years being so isolated which is a shame when she comes from a reasonable place in terms of intentions.

This election has been dull in content and periodically interrupted by the tragic terrorist events in Manchester and London. We will all be glad when it is over. My feeling is that the Conservatives will win, probably even comfortably, but not as convincingly as they could have done. The UK’s version of Bernie Sanders has got away with far too much. Let’s hope the lessons of the election campaign already emerging are taken on board so that an amended style of Government allows Theresa May to enhance her effectiveness, particularly in the face of Brexit.

Snap UK election could mean a smoother Brexit

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, today called a General Election for 8 June. She will have to negotiate around the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which prohibits early General Elections without a two thirds majority.

However, as Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party Opposition Leader, has already welcomed the election, this shouldn’t be a problem.

So what are the implications of this Election? Obviously, short term uncertainty and a media agenda which will be further dominated by political concerns. Longer term, however, this is likely to strengthen the Prime Minister’s hand and ironically that of the soft Brexiteers which is good for the Financial Services sector generally.

If, as the current opinion polls suggest (Conservative lead of 9-23%, weak Labour leadership etc), the Conservatives win the election, Theresa May will have a stronger hand in confronting the Hard Brexiteers in her own party, negotiating terms much more amenable to a smoother exit.

The pro-European Liberal Democrats are also likely to gain seats and the weak Labour Leader will subsequently be replaced most likely by a stronger and more pro-European candidate offering stronger opposition. The Scottish National Party north of the Border may do well but so might the Conservatives too from a rock bottom base. The UK Independence Party are hugely diminished. So, all in all, on balance, good news for Remain/soft Brexit supporters.

Coming hot on the heels of the general election in the Netherlands and the first round of the French election due this coming weekend, clearly today’s decision simply adds another level of complexity to the European project.

From a communications perspective, it will be interesting to see the manifesto promises and debates from each party over the coming weeks, and whether this may present any challenges – or indeed opportunities – for investment firms.

Longer term analysis of what this all means for Britain and its future can only be seriously considered once the election has taken place but even in these turbulent times, this – at least for now – seems one of the more predictable elections in terms of the likely result.

Brutal Brexit Comes Out to Play

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

So it is happening. The Letter triggering Article 50 has been sent and the UK is on the path to leaving the EU. In the run up to this momentous week, the Hard Brexiteers have run an unintentionally brilliant strategy. In demanding that the UK has a complete break with Europe they may force the end of the Union. With the SNP voting for a second referendum and the Nationalists scoring victories in Northern Ireland, by the time we leave we may be so small that nobody notices our departure…. And that is before London declares UDI and the Welsh start stirring….

But seriously, never has UK politics been so challenging and for many so depressing and who would have Theresa May’s job? Trapped between the public’s antipathy to current immigration levels (the prime reason for Brexit whatever the ‘elite’ anti Europeans say) and the economic nihilism of the Hard Brexiteers, she has had no alternative but to pursue the current, and skilfully implemented parliamentary path to full Brexit.

But how do firms, particularly in the financial services sector, conduct their business against the backdrop of all this uncertainty. First, they must engage with their industry bodies to ensure their interests are protected in negotiations. They should be voluble in criticising any cavalier approaches to maintaining a comprehensive trading relationship with Europe, making politicians realise the full implications of a lack of agreement on such issues as regulatory regimes for example. At the same time, a careful balancing act is required to reassure customers of their commitment to the UK and ensuring as much as possible it is business as usual. Communication professionals should be at the top of their game as they have never been so important in delivering this careful balancing act.

The UK in recent months has often seemed a much more inward looking, crueller and consequently diminished place. Combined with longer term economic forecasts of weaker growth confirmed in the recent Budget, the last year may seem an unprecedented period of self-harm. Government will essentially be on hold for the next two years, with much needed reform of a range of services delayed. Political risk will dominate. Never has business, and the business of communications, been so important in cutting through the rhetoric, to protect the future economic welfare of this country.