Tag: Trump

A change of view: Trump will almost certainly win if Biden doesn’t step down

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

A comfortable majority of Americans do not want Donald Trump as their next president. It is very clear on any trip to the US.  The problem is a similar majority don’t want Joe Biden either. The only candidate each one could beat is each other, which is why they both need a Biden versus Trump fight.

Biden failed last night…

Last night’s presidential debate just made it harder for Biden to win. All the fears that he is in cognitive decline and simply too old for a second term came to the fore. This was Biden’s chance to put such concerns to rest. Indeed, the debate so early in the campaign was his idea. He flunked it.

Biden is a decent man and has actually been a reasonable president. Democrats have consistently performed better in elections than opinion polls. Since Trump was convicted in the hush money trial, Biden had been drawing level in polls. Trump has become wilder and more dangerous in his views and has his own cognitive decline problems at 78.

After last night, none of this is now enough. Biden must step down, or Trump will almost certainly win.

The problem for Democrats is that Biden might not agree with this analysis and, if he does and reluctantly steps down, they are left with the deeply unpopular Vice-President Kamala Harris. Trump may win on this scenario, too.

If Trump is a mess of the Republicans’ own making, Biden is now a mess of the Democrats’ own making.

At stake is the future of American democracy, the integrity of its legal system, a triumphant Putin, the NATO alliance to name but a few issues…

Democrats better come up with a solution to the Biden/Harris conundrum fast. Otherwise, America and the wider world will enter a very dark phase indeed.

America stares into the abyss

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

The only place that makes you pathetically grateful for the level of political debate in the UK is America.

It’s an extraordinary comment you might think, but viewing things from the perspective of a business trip to New York, politics is dire over here. Two presidential candidates almost nobody wants; one a convicted felon, the other feebly tottering through public life, resting heavily on cue cards.

Two candidates few voters want but Trump is the real danger to America’s future…

The real difference, however, is that Biden is a decent man who has actually had a successful presidency, with the exception of the lack of border controls that might do for him in the end. The economy is booming, partly powered by green investment initiatives, and much needed infrastructure rebuilding is finally happening. He is also managing the Middle East crisis and Ukraine as best he can.

But Biden gets no credit. The impact of inflation, not his fault, still lingers, and illegal immigration dominates public discourse even with Democrat voters I have spoken to. This is now being addressed through an executive order, but it should have been a priority from day one. Biden looks and sounds too old for a second term, and moderates are in despair at the gamble Democrats are taking with him that may let Trump triumph.

As for Trump. He is a grotesque. Nothing truthful comes out of his mouth. He is a narcissist who doesn’t care a jot for the institutions of state or, for that matter, democracy and the voters who vote for him.  He is setting community against community and voter against voter. Think an extreme version of Brexit. Yet he is marginally ahead of Biden in the polls and has just raised US$140m in donations on the back of his conviction.

You just despair for the future of this amazing country. Voters are taking for granted all they have, and it feels we are witnessing the start of the collapse of an empire. cAD400 all-over again…

Trump and Biden need each other as they only have a chance of winning against each other. But it comes at the expense of the extreme polarisation of public discourse and the fracturing of American society.

Democrats are campaigning weakly, Republicans have shamefully been taken over by the cult of Trump’s personality.

America is looking into the abyss and there is only one way, at least in the short-term, for the country to save itself from itself.

For all Biden’s faults, America must reject Trump in November.

Who will trump Trump?

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

Last week, this blog made a prediction that Trump would not win this year’s US presidential election and may not even be a candidate. Umm… brave or foolhardy? Well, time will tell but yesterday was a big step forward in the presidential race.

Biden and Trump are each other’s best bet…

First, Republican Chris Christie, now a harsh critic of Trump, suspended his presidential campaign. In some ways this doesn’t mean much. He was polling just two per cent amongst the Republican base. His lambasting of Trump would have meant more if he hadn’t had his head up Trump’s fundament when he initially became President in 2016. However, as the list of GOP wannabees dwindles, it allows those opposed to Trump to coalesce around DeSantis (unlikely) or Haley (more likely). In that sense Christie’s trashing of Haley off-camera is probably more meaningful than him stepping out of the race.

Today, it certainly looks as though Trump will be his Party’s nominee, but the contest has a long way to go with exciting legal hurdles ahead. In the meantime, it is curious that Fox News is giving Trump prime airtime, inviting him to friendly on air townhall meetings whilst his fellow contestants are debating elsewhere. The Murdoch’s disparage him in private, Trump has cost them US$1 billion indirectly in damages and most elected Republicans one hears are also extremely rude about Trump in private too.

We shall see. Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times recently eloquently explained why American democracy will survive Trump come what may. I am not so sure… although Congressional elections should stymie Trump’s presidency domestically pretty quickly.

If all that seems pessimistic, then balance these events with further evidence emerging suggesting the Democrat’s electoral prospects, even under Biden, are underestimated. Recent polling by The Washington Post and University of Maryland suggests an overwhelming majority (72 per cent) of Americans are not sympathetic to the January 6th rioters, who Trump wants to pardon, believing convicts either received fair sentences or they were not harsh enough. Add that to the real elections (mid-term Congressional and State ones) where Democrats significantly outperformed expectations, and there is all to play for.

As also mentioned in last week’s blog, Trump is Biden’s best bet and vice versa. It will be a nail-biting year, particularly as there is also the possibility that neither may be a candidate by November. And only America’s democracy and global security is at stake…

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The politics of Julius Caesar…

~ Julian Samways ~ 4 Comments

There is a brilliant documentary on BBC iPlayer currently; ‘Julius Caesar, The Making of a Dictator’. Thoroughly recommended. It charts the path of Caesar to power and then absolute power. Firebrand populism to whip up the mob, tenacity, charisma, a brilliant propagandist, skillful at building unholy political alliances, hidden and not so hidden thuggery, a disrespect for institutions and their constraints on power, and then, finally, tyranny. Of course, it all ends in tears five years later in mid-March 44 BC… but the damage was done. The Roman Empire was ruled by dictators for hundreds of years with most vestiges of democracy withering on the vine.

The rise of Julius Caesar could teach us a thing or two…

Remind you of anything?

Western democracy is starting to feel under threat again. Complacent voters disillusioned with the democratic norms of over-promising politicians who under-deliver, are in revolt. There is the incredible but highly possible resurrection of Trump in the US and the rise of the far-right across much of Europe, already running governments in Hungary and Italy but not in Poland thank goodness. The broader Republican Party in the US is tempted to abandon Ukraine and Putin is banking more generally on the West giving up. Looking further afield, Modi in India, (still trading with Russia), is starting to dismantle checks and balances in their democracy.

A commentator on Sky News rather depressingly summed it up this week. Paraphrasing him, he spoke of many power brokers in the US as well as elsewhere who would like the world run by the three Caesars of Trump, Xi and Putin. Democratic norms would continue to disappear as voters were bought off with manipulated expectations. Corrupt elites would rule uninterrupted.

The optimist says that the above will not happen. That voters will wake up in time. That populists in Western democracies to date have largely been grossly incompetent; Trump and Johnson for example… But what happens if they are not incompetent or, in Trump’s case, had powerful allies who would use him as the proverbial Trojan Horse. Think of the damage that could be done with democratic institutions permanently undermined, climate change initiatives reversed, Putin winning a partial victory in Ukraine and further Chinese hegemony.

2024 will be a pivotal year. It may be a good one or not, but like politics in ancient Rome, we had better be on our guard…

President Trump: Let the Show Begin

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Rather like waiting for a dental appointment, you want the pain to be over as quickly as possible and so it is with Donald Trump’s inauguration.

It is upon us and The Donald (unless those tapes appear….) is the 45th President of the United States. No bluster, no conspiracy theories, no insults. It’s your show now Donald and everything that happens from here on in, is on your watch.

And what should we expect? Is this a march backwards from 40 years of liberal democratic progress or a mere blip on a continuing path we have complacently taken for granted? Well, three points, one bad (really bad) and two good (one potentially very good).

First, the bad. In this new Administration, Trump is the least of your worries. Vice President, Mike Pence, is far more socially conservative and may signal an erosion of liberties we take for granted on this side of the Atlantic far more actively if he became President. Then there is the cabinet…. who could independently tear up the Iran agreement, embrace Putin (although splits are appearing), walk away from environmental safeguards and tear up global trade treaties. That is before the appointment of an Israeli Ambassador who decries a two state solution. This has major implications for us in the UK and beyond. Umm…

And now on to the good points. First, this is likely to be an Administration which understands business and markets and may, in embracing Putin, be cannier in sorting out Syria and ultimately curtailing Putin’s expansionist ambitions. In the case of Syria, a resolution will aid the pressures of immigration facing Europe’s borders.

The second good point however may be most important of all and certainly most significant for the UK as that the reasons for a Trump victory are correlated with Brexit. It is about those who have politically lost, principally the moderates from the centre left and right, understanding and learning from their mistakes. You can’t win elections not listening to those who have been side-lined by globalisation. You can’t win elections without understanding pride in one’s country and shared values is not something to be sneered at. You can’t win elections without being a muscular moderate. Being as focused and ruthless in winning the argument, just as the further Right has been, is something liberals must learn. No more hand-wringing please.

So what does all this mean for us? If liberal democracy re-calibrates its message to a wider audience and toughens its approach, 2016’s events will be seen as a corrective blip. We don’t need a hard Brexit and we don’t need to fear an isolationist America if our relationship with Europe remains close. And, for all communications professionals, now is the time to start preparing to confront fake news in social media more aggressively. Lastly, you never know, when a Trump presidency is not depressing and worrying, it may even be comical. Hold on for the ride…

You will only miss it when it has gone…

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

On a tide of populism we have experienced Brexit and now, with a gasp of disbelief, the election victory of Donald Trump. Liberal Democracy R.I.P? Possibly.

But we should not really be surprised. Trump’s popularity was trending upwards far more than his manifest lack of suitability for the presidential role should have allowed (hence my desire to campaign for Hillary Clinton on a recent business trip to the US) and the reasons he succeeded are clear.

It was for the same reasons that Britain voted to leave Europe. As I have written before, globalism has disenfranchised many voters and not only issues such as immigration but the increasing disparity of wealth is fueling discontent. (E.g. FTSE CEO’s pay up 10% in 2015, wages largely stagnant in the US since the 1970’s, 75% of the wealth held by the top 10% … etc).

The signals from democratic elections are a stark warning. We operate in global markets. The capitalist system as a whole, upon which liberal democracy resides, owes it to voters to be more accountable, meeting the needs of society as a whole.

So correcting short termism in markets, from company behaviour and the actions of asset managers, to the needs of asset owners, is a start. It will help ease some of the current tensions between business and society, reversing the tide of populism. Aligning more closely the interests of all major stakeholders; employees, shareholders, suppliers, customers, creditors, communities, the environment is a crucial initial step and the sensible parts of the media are already on the case.

A while ago you would have become a millionaire if you had bet £1.00 on Leicester winning the Premier League, Brexit and a Trump victory. Odds on Marine Le Pen winning the presidential election in France are now 7/4. Liberal Democracy R.I.P? Possibly. For so many reasons you, will miss it if it goes.