Tag: tories

Armageddon for the Tories

~ Julian Samways ~ 2 Comments

There has been no blog for the past few weeks. The trajectory of politics has been pretty predictable and there has been nothing to add; the gradual demise of today’s Tories, the rise of Trump and the truly vile anti-West right-wing Republicans, the permanence of Putin and populism on the march in Europe.

But having spent some time with senior Tories recently, the sheer disaster awaiting them at the next Election is clearly coming into view and they know they can do nothing about it. This will be no 1992 all over again. The Tories will be routed and 1997 may evoke fond memories for them in comparison.

Ah, I hear people say, there is no appetite for Starmer. It doesn’t matter. The public is so heartedly sick of the Tories, Labour will storm it whether it is partly due to Tories staying at home (similar to 1997) or the rise of Reform UK or the rise of the LibDems in the South or the collapse of the SNP in the North.

Interestingly, Sky News do a tracking poll of 33 voters who voted Tory in 2019. Nine are switching to Labour and five to Reform. On this small sample alone, the Tory vote will be down by over 40%. Interesting, really, that we seem to be the only major democracy currently moving mostly to the left even if it is without enthusiasm.

Holding a sword… a key attribute apparently to becoming the next Tory leader…

But it can hardly be surprising. The behaviour of senior Tories is appalling, now contemplating another change at the top from the decent if increasingly politically hapless Sunak. Penny Mordaunt is the next sacrificial lamb mooted as leader, her key merit being she held a sword aloft very well at the Coronation. You really can’t write the script…

To some extent it is Sunak’s fault. He is no Tory left-winger but in trying to ingratiate himself with the Right he has simply earned their contempt. He should have stood up to them from the start. If they felt Johnson and Truss were ok why did he think they would ever accept him? Let them clear off to Reform if they have to. It will ultimately be a political dead-end.

The only silver lining, first highlighted by the excellent Stephen Bush in the FT, is that post-election there is a small chance the Tories move to the centre-ground as right-wingers amongst the grassroots head elsewhere. Certainly, analysis shows the parliamentary party will not move much to the Right in composition if it is defenestrated. Umm…, I am not so sure. It partly takes ruthlessness from moderates to seize control of the Tory Party and there is currently no evidence they are up for the fight.

Hey ho. It feels like an exciting year ahead politically but one where no one really gets what they want!

Follow https://insiderightpolitics.com/ directly or on X.

Tories in a hole don’t know when to stop digging…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Things seem to go from bad to worse for the Tories. They are now a stonking 27 per cent behind Labour in the latest YouGov/Times opinion poll with Reform UK on 12 per cent. They are assailed from the Right and Left, and one has to feel for Sunak. The tightrope he walks seems pretty precarious.

Who would have Sunak’s job?

But Sunak, his advisors and his backbenchers just make things worse. The focus on the Rwanda deportation scheme for illegal migrants, for example, is a disaster. Squeezing the Bill through the House of Commons last week finally by a majority of 44 just confirms Sunak’s weakness. It was excruciating to witness the aggressive interventions from some 60 Tory MPs saying the Bill wasn’t strong enough before finally pushing it through. Nobody, least of all the public, think the scheme is going to work despite spending £240 million to date. When the President of Rwanda, seeing his country constantly getting trashed in the media, has had enough you know the game is up. The Bill will go to the House of Lords, get amended, come back to the House of Commons, get passed, and then will be challenged in the courts. It is highly unlikely a single person will be deported to Rwanda this side of the election.

And the bizarre thing is that the government has had some success with illegal migrant channel boat crossings. They are down by a third in the past year but all the noise over Rwanda has hidden this.

Keir Starmer just has to sit back and watch the Tories implode, now helped by another intervention from ex-cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke. Writing in The Telegraph he describes Sunak as “leading the Conservatives into an election where we will be massacred” and urges him to step down. Oh dear indeed.

The only hope for the Tories is that Reform UK’s polling at 12 per cent, which would cost them dozens of seats, is exaggerated. There is some evidence for this but even that won’t save them.

Footnote on Trump

For some time, Trump has been the clear favourite to win the Republican nomination. Whilst the size of his victories in Ohio and New Hampshire is depressing, there is a long way to go before November. Whether Nikki Haley stays in the race or not through to Super Tuesday in March (she will probably get a thrashing in her home state of South Carolina) will provide some insight into Trump’s perceived viability throughout the year. The two issues will be whether Trump is still the candidate by November and whether Biden can still beat him. We are no closer to knowing the answer to these two questions despite the primary events of the last couple of weeks.

Follow https://insiderightpolitics.com/ directly or on X.

2024 predictions: a momentous year for elections

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

For political geeks or those who simply care about democracy, 2024 will be a huge year. More than 2 billion people across 50 countries will go to the polls and the consequences for many will reverberate for a generation. Of course, some of these elections are more free than others.

As one gears up nervously to make predictions for the year ahead, time to review this blog’s predictions for 2023. Not a bad year actually although apologies in advance for Trump…

  • There will be no UK General Election in 2023 – an easy tick
  • Sunak’s style will not quite resonate with the electorate – tick
  • Biden will run again – tick so far…
  • The Ukraine war will last into 2024 – tick
  • China will not invade Taiwan but the threat will rise – an easyish tick
  • Erdogan will win the presidency again in Turkey – tick
  • DeSantis will trump Trump – oops, massive cross

It’s all about elections in 2024…

So here goes, insiderightpolitics’ calculated gut feel:

First, to the UK. Sunak this week sort of confirmed there will be no election until the second half of 2024. Pretty obvious really. The Tories are 18-20 per cent behind in the polls, Sunak has only met one of his five pledges, recent tax cuts will only gradually start to be felt even as the overall tax burden continues to rise and time is needed to announce more. Sunak will want his 2 years as PM before, you heard it here first… the Tories go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation. One keeps hearing that Starmer hasn’t ‘sealed the deal’ and the Tories may make a surprise recovery to at least achieve a hung parliament, but I don’t buy it. Labour will do well in Scotland, the LibDems in the South. Reform UK will pull the rug from the Tories in the ‘Red Wall’. The sheer number of groups who want the Tories out will overwhelm their campaign. It is time for a change and even they know it.

The Tories move further to the Right after the election. Kemi Badenoch is the front-runner currently but there is a long way to go. Expect culture wars to feature and a bit of cozying up to Reform UK. Oh dear. This prediction is a no brainer. Tory moderates are split and simply, well, too moderate. It will take a generation before they find their backbone, and all this assumes there is no change to the electoral system. Rory Stewart once intimated he might lead the Tories in 10 years’ time, but he has also just intimated he would happily serve under Starmer, so no, he won’t.

Trump. This is a brave prediction, but he will not win the presidency and may not even be a candidate. Commentators have consistently underestimated the Democrat’s fortunes, either in the mid-terms or recently in State elections. Polls which put Trump ahead change their tune if he is convicted of anything. His best bet is Biden and Biden’s best bet is Trump. Neither of course may be on the ballot by November (don’t underestimate Trump’s health challenges as well as indictments) but Biden will beat Trump if it comes to that. All bets are off however if it is Biden versus Nikki Haley. She is running a smart campaign whilst DeSantis is running a dumb one.

There are many elections in Europe. Not least EU elections to the European Parliament. The populist Right will make gains notably in France, Italy and Germany but gains will be driven by frustration rather than belief and will not be as extensive as forecast.

Oh, come on, give it to me. Putin will win in Russia and, of course, Modi in India.

On other matters, the war with Ukraine will grind on throughout 2024 but Western resolve will hold up. It is doing wonders (Hungry not withstanding) to Europe’s understanding of the need to wean itself off American protection with their split Congress problems.

This blog avoids analysis of the Middle East – there are many more experts than I – but Netanyahu will not see out the year as Israel’s Prime Minister. His aggressive strategy towards the Palestinians, really all about staying in power, has manifestly failed and his sinister judicial laws rejected by Israel’s Supreme Court. This cat has used up his nine lives, sadly too late for many.

So there you go. A fascinating but scary year ahead. Even those not interested in politics should realise that their futures for years will be shaped by the outcomes of elections in 2024.

Follow me on X.