Keep Calm and Carry On…

No pictures today. The blog is being written on a ship, mid-Atlantic…

But with access to all the usual news channels it is easy to track the UK’s local election results. And, well, no surprises really. All the parties mostly did as expected. Confirmation of a wholly fractured electoral landscape was made clear.

First, Reform. With c25% of the vote their success is of course a reflection of voter disillusionment with established parties. They are now in the driving seat to run a swathe of councils. Their record to date has often been chaotic although making little fundamental difference to any council’s activities. Only time will tell if they are able to survive voter scrutiny. We will hear far more from Farage in the coming months but he has one major problem. He and his party are loathed by three quarters of the public and this isn’t going to change between now and the General Election.

For the other parties, ex Labour, the Tories’ electoral irrelevance was confirmed. The disappointing performance of the LibDems highlighted for anybody taking notice. The Greens and SNP did well but fell short of the more optimistic expectations. Plaid Cymru saw off Reform in Wales. Good for them. Remember, at one stage, Reform was expected to come top.

That only leaves Labour… umm…

The elections were a disaster for the government. The sheer unpopularity of Starmer and his ineffectual administration stripped Labour bare.

The path to recovery, however, is really quite simple. Lay out a clear policy plan and deliver. Is Starmer the man to do this? Almost certainly not, as shown by the bizarre appointments of Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman to vague government roles. But, there is no alternative amongst his colleagues. They are mostly all tainted, more left-wing or useless. Often all three and that includes Andy Burnham. Oh dear indeed…

Populists thrive when moderates fail. Speak to the Democrats about Trump is one glaring example. So, in this respect, it was a good night for Reform. There is currently no alternative to the current mob in power including Starmer and Reform can afford to sit it out, basking in the electoral sunlight.

Starmer is likely to be safe for now. Changing prime ministers every five minutes doesn’t work. Keep Calm and Carry On or to put it another way, wait for something to turn up is probably the only option. What a choice… We are three years from a General Election. After the past week it suddenly feels just around the corner…

Oh dear: Moderates seem to be failing everywhere…

How bad can it get? The centre-right has collapsed or is collapsing in the USA, UK, France, Italy to name just a few countries. To be fair, centre-right, centre-left moderates are hanging on in Sweden, Norway, Poland, Germany, Australia, and Canada, but the populist threat is rising across the board. Picking a row with Donald Trump seems to be the short-term route to salvation.

As for the UK, bloody hell! This blog welcomed Starmer’s pragmatism, but if that is a substitute for absolutely no core beliefs, we have a problem.

Starmer, like Sunak, seems to be deaf politically and cuts an unsympathetic figure. I have repeated this before, but he needs to be brutally honest on taxes, cut through on housing, the NHS, and small boats. Actually, just get things done. Otherwise, this government is toast and currently it is our last hope. After Rayner’s departure, I think he might have the cabinet he wanted even if by accident. Let’s see. Umm… as I write this Starmer has just lost his US Ambassador, Peter Mandelson, over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Did nobody check these links, particularly when we had a good Ambassador already in situ who had built close ties with Trump’s administration? It smacks of general incompetence laced with hypocrisy guaranteed to infuriate voters.

One law for moderates, another law for voters…

Despite day to day errors, the unpopularity of moderates generally has come about because of their fundamental incompetence in relating, managing expectations and delivering for voters. You can combine this with a fair amount of dishonesty, as mainstream politicians treat politics purely as a career rarely built on a set of consistent beliefs which chime with the electorate. Often self-serving and easily judged as hypocritical (see above), why shouldn’t voters go for populists? They feel there is nothing left to lose (until they have lost big time as they would be worse off on every front), as little seems to change, living standards have plateaued or gone backwards, and nobody is levelling with them. Respect for state institutions and indeed democracy itself is disappearing. Just look at how it is playing out in America. The self-serving, grotesquely incompetent Trump destroys government but incredibly moderates having nothing to offer except to self-flagellate over whether they should stay moderate or not.

We need clever, politically astute (not the same thing), brutally honest, perhaps even charismatic politicians (a change of view here) with gravitas to cut through and deflate the populist balloon before it is too late.

Where are they?

P.S. An uncomfortable UK state visit for Trump. If Mandelson has to resign because of his ties to Epstein, what does it say about the US President’s past and the company he kept…