The Gorton and Denton by-election result handing a convincing victory to the Greens with Reform UK coming second will be a joy to many on the far-left and far-right. It creates despair amongst moderates.
A bad night for the political centre ground…
Let’s start with Labour’s defeat. The Party got what it deserved. The soap opera over whether Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, should stand and the potential threat to Starmer’s leadership just exasperates voters. Trying to knife the leader of an underperforming government gives the impression of chaos and division. It hardly reassures that the nation’s future is in safe hands.
But Labour‘s real problem is the same one all mainstream parties have. Over promising and under delivering. Add to that, Labour has the additional issue of a huge parliamentary majority on just 34% of the vote. Promising better public services but no core tax rises, delaying tough decisions through policy reviews or U-turns, equivocating on the Middle East which is a sensitive issue in many Labour areas including this one is not a recipe for victory. Nothing seems to change.
The Greens and Reform UK are the beneficiaries of voter disillusionment, certainly not the Tories who with just 600 votes lost their deposit. Tax the rich, legalise drugs, take a firm stance on Israel all played well for the Greens in this constituency. ‘Green’ issues themselves actually played a small role in their campaign. Zack Polanski, the Green’s leader, for all his charisma, is starting to sound and behave like a traditional politician.
As for Reform. An unpleasant candidate, an unpleasant party, did well but not well enough. Immigration is not a catch all issue it seems. Farage whinges about sectarianism and cheating. Who can be more sectarian than his party? It confirms the view that with tactical voting focusing on anybody but Farage, Reform will not form the next government. The belief it has peaked has just gained further validity.
Voters want instant solutions not triangulation and delay. Too many lives are either not touched or disadvantaged by mainstream political parties and patience is running out. Government is more complicated than the solutions offered by political extremes but when Labour and the Tories have such a tin ear to the needs of the electorate, who can blame voters for reaching out for something different.
Starmer will cling on probably beyond May despite the media’s hysteria. But the odds of him surviving are getting longer. The Tory leader Badenoch will stick to her strategy of aping Reform without sufficient focus on the economy. Why? She doesn’t have the patience for the hard slog of slow but steady progress over 10 years. The LibDems are nowhere.
Populism, it seems, is in safe hands even if by default…
Inside Right Politics 