Too close to call…

By that, I mean whether the Tories gain over 100 seats or not… reinforced by yesterday’s YouGov poll.

In what will be a well-deserved calamitous result for the Tories, they will face a wipe-out across the country, not so much due to a huge swell of support for Labour but a combination of the collapse of the SNP, resurgent LibDems in the South, Reform attacking from the Right and tactical voting to oust as many Tories as possible. It is time for a change.

Tories fighting to clear 100 seats…

I confess that I have had two bets on the election outcome for some time. Neither will make me rich, and neither are due to insider knowledge… One is with a colleague for £10 and one with a journalist for a lobster supper, and both are based on my view that the Tories will gain over 100 seats. Why?

There is a genuine fear amongst some of the electorate that Labour’s majority will be too great. Probably even Starmer doesn’t want a 200 seat majority. Imagine the indiscipline and lack of mandate based on 40% or so of the vote. Enough former Tory voters may well pull back from the brink of voting Reform, who will still have a reasonable night regardless.

What will not help the Tories’ cause is the last minute, almost insulting appearance of Boris Johnson on the campaign trail. No doubt emboldened by the resurgence of Donald Trump, this ludicrous, narcissistic character believes he can perhaps be the Tories’ post-election saviour when, in reality, he is the principal architect of the party’s demise. His appearance will simply remind floating voters of this.

What a battle lies ahead for the soul of what is left of a once impregnable Tory Party, already written off by a deeply unhelpful article in yesterday’s Telegraph by the charming former Home Secretary, Suella Braverman. But that is for another day. Sunak, who has fought a somewhat ill-judged but brave campaign, deserves better.

As France toys with fascism – there is no other word for it – and Trump prospers at the expense of a clearly too frail Biden, the UK, for all the problems the country faces, could be a beacon of stability in a sea of polarisation after today. And if for no other reason, that is a note of optimism on which to end this overly long, tedious election campaign.

Happy voting!