Ripple effects from the unfolding disaster in Ukraine

The news of casualties in Ukraine just gets worse. The madness of Putin gets madder. As this disaster unfolds it is almost impossible to find any grounds for optimism but there are ripple effects which will have longstanding consequences.

First, and of most immediate significance is the economic response of the West to this war. Expecting a wave of self-interested half measures, Putin has been entirely wrongfooted by the West rediscovering its sense of purpose. Serious coordinated sanctions which will decimate Russia’s economy have been implemented. The West has found its moral compass, even at the expense of potential problems such sanctions will cause at home. The test will be when the consequences for the public in Europe and North America mount, but one senses patience in the face of our very way of life being threatened by Putin’s actions.

Second, and running on from this, recalibrated defence and energy policies. Germany pledging to step up to the plate on defence spending, the UK, US and most significantly, the EU, pledging to wean themselves off Russian energy supplies, will remove Russia’s stranglehold over the West for a generation.

Third, the defenestration of the populist Right. How does Trump’s praise of Putin look now? Can you imagine if he was still President? How do apologists of Putin look in Europe? Begone Salvini in Italy, Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemour in France, to name but a few. One almost certain outcome is a victory for Macron in April’s French presidential election. The war has also driven Poland back into the heart of Europe and even Orban in Hungary is making the right noises.

Fourth, China. The last blog suggested war in Ukraine could be a catalyst/opportunity for China to join the heart of the international community. It caused vigorous debate! It was only a suggestion, not an expectation. But, regardless, the West’s economic response must be unsettling for Xi and should make him think twice about his shameless tactical embrace of Russia and any moves on Taiwan.

Fifth, the benefits of a free press. This war has been fought in public and endless Western news outlets have distinguished themselves hugely with their reports, busting apart sometimes ludicrous propaganda from Russia and its allies. In the end, this will have a key impact on ending this war and acts as a reminder to the previously complacent West never to take such news services for granted. It also means the sources of information in social media are now firmly in the public eye with much more scrutiny likely to uncover false information.

Sixth, and closer to home, this war shines a light on corrupt money infecting London, the property market generally and the financing of political parties (really the Conservative Party). Even Conservative commentators are warming to the idea of greater state funding of our political system to create a more level, fairer playing field and remove the temptations of donations from potentially corrupt businessmen and/or unfair access to the honours list…That would be a very good thing.

What Ukrainians are going through is unimaginable and much more can still be done to ease their suffering. Of course, only Putin can end this war but his unintended legacy, for he will not survive his psychopathic act, has been to strengthen the West by ending its complacency and giving it purpose. Very sadly, it has come too late for Ukraine today, but possibly not for future actions by other dictators and their allies.