Predictions for 2020: Tory hegemony and Trump triumphs

For those unsympathetic to the Alt. Right and supporting centre ground politics it won’t be a vintage year, but it will be a calmer one, at least from a UK perspective…

But first, how did this blog’s predictions for 2019 pan out. Well, not brilliant but not too bad either with more predictions right than wrong.

On British politics, the prediction was that Theresa May would just squeak her Withdrawal Agreement through parliament (not first-time round) but, as Leader, she would go earlier than expected as the Tories ran out of patience with her inability to communicate. There would be no GE until 2020. Oops. Mostly wrong by a few months but in a way her Withdrawal Agreement did pass but under Johnson.

Looking at the British Opposition, the next prediction was that Corbyn’s Labour Party would go nowhere, the LibDems would not succeed and, in an environment of such polarised politics, any new centre ground party would also fail. Correct.

Overseas, Trump probably wouldn’t get impeached, but even if he did, the process would make him stronger. A score draw.

In Europe, Merkel’s influence will wane, and Macron would regain his poise. Correct.

On economics, a steady year for global growth regardless of trade wars as China stabilises without any recessionary crisis. Correct.

So, six predictions right, three wrong and one score draw. To be honest, I would have taken those odds at the start of such a chaotic year!

So, to 2020. Here we go…

The Tories have no Opposition and will dominate British politics all year. Johnson is there for 10 years unless scandal or boredom get the better of him. The Tories will pursue a Northern, English nationalist agenda, moving to the Right. Labour’s best bet is Keir Starmer but that will not be enough, even if they are sensible enough to elect him. The LibDems will not recover and are politically dead. They had their chance and blew it. A new centrist Party will be planned but won’t be launched this year. It needs detailed planning and mass defections from Labour. There will be no second Scottish referendum. The SNP have peaked.

On Brexit, it will of course happen, but Johnson will partly sell out the Right of his Party to get a final trade deal. The only time he will appear to moderate his somewhat gung-ho political stance.

Overseas, Trump will survive the Senate, keep his job and win a second term. If the Democrats can’t find a credible enough candidate by now…they probably never will. I really, really hope I am wrong.

Elsewhere, the Cities across the Western world will continue to diverge politically, pursuing liberal policies versus conservative rural areas, who will still manage to pick their national leaders in most countries. A major crisis of democracy rooted in culture wars awaits us but not in 2020.

Economically, Europe will struggle but generally economic growth will tick along globally with no crises, even with more mayhem in the Middle East than usual. Certainly not from destabilising trade wars in a US election year. A bit dull really.

2020 will be unsurprising but generally bad for political moderates. Their fightback, postponed in 2019 through, at best, ineffectual strategy and tactics, better start this year.