Meanwhile, elsewhere…

No Brexit commentary today. By Wednesday, we could have a Withdrawal Agreement, Theresa May’s resignation, a softer Brexit option, the implosion of the Government, more pointers to a General Election, a second referendum…Time to wait a little.

So let’s look elsewhere, at politics overseas. There has actually been, or there are about to be, some seismic changes.

North America

Trump survived the Mueller inquiry intact as expected…sadly. He is too stupid and disorgansised to have actually colluded with Russia even if they helped him win his election. This leaves the Democrats high and dry. They are disappointing at best. They failed to manage expectations around the inquiry, see the answer to Trump as moving further to the Left and have a myriad of mediocre candidates (ex Beto O’Rourke?) for President in 2020. The leading two Democrat figures are Biden and Sanders aged 76 and 77 respectively, the former now caught up in a ‘me-too’ moment of indiscretion. Oh dear, Trump is on course for a second term.

In Canada, the previously popular Trudeau is fighting for his political life after a corruption scandal. He is alleged to have influenced a bribery inquiry involving the engineering and construction firm SNC-Lavalin, a company helpful to him in Quebec. He has lost his top adviser and two cabinet ministers so far and really should resign if he is seen to have led a cover-up. Like many charismatic centre-left politicians, he should pay the price for his hypocrisy. However, liberal democratic politics can ill afford such mistakes.

Populism 2, Liberalism 0.

Middle East

Israel’s PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, is to be indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, but with his formidable nationalistic, fear-mongering campaigning skills, is possibly on course to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat in Israel’s elections on 9th April. He has ratcheted up anti-Arab rhetoric, claiming Israel is for Jews alone, and is pursuing a successful dirty tricks campaign against his lead opponent, the less experienced but highly respected former leader of the Israeli army, Benny Gantz. If the Trump-loving (it is mutual) Netanyahu wins, he will insist all charges are dropped against him and there will be no Middle East peace initiatives for a generation.

Populism 0 (1), Liberalism 0.

South America

The homophobic, nationalist, possibly corrupt (even though elected to combat corruption!), Trump-loving President Bolsonaro of Brazil, advised by a fan of Steve Bannon, wanted to commemorate the country’s former military regime with celebrations at garrisons nationwide yesterday.  He recently stated that ‘democracy and freedom only exist’ insofar as the armed forces wanted it. Only the intervention of the generals, now seen as the main force of social cohesion following Bolsonaro’s election, restrained him saying ‘that time has ended’.

Populism 1, Liberalism 0, Generals 1

Eastern Europe

In the Ukraine, a comedian (not knowingly a Trump supporter) has just won the first round of Ukraine’s presidential elections, second round 21st April. Playing a teacher who is unexpectedly elected president in a TV series, with no political experience, he is seen as an antidote to corruption and low standards of living. We shall see.

In Turkey, Erdogan faced crucial local elections yesterday. Terrified his party, the AKP, could lose control of Ankara and Istanbul (looks like they have) due to widespread voter discontent, he sought to make the elections about national security and to quote the FT; ‘survival in the face of threats from a dark alliance of external and internal foes’. Food prices have been suppressed, the lira has been artificially boosted and debt is running out of control. An economic crisis is imminent. 

Populism 2, Liberalism 0 so far

Lastly Brunei…

Their new laws come into effect this week.which will punish adultery and homosexual sex with death by stoning. Quite Game of Thrones.

Populism 10, Liberalism 0

Total: Populism 15 (16), Liberalism 0, Generals 1. And that is before we know about the final chapters of Brexit…