Tag: UK politics

The slow painful walk back from Brexit…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Why are politicians of many mainstream parties not coming clean? I am thinking of Labour, the LibDems and exiled Tories. They shy away from support for joining the single market or full scale EU membership for fear of opening old Brexit wounds.

A bold move on closer EU alignment might just be what this government needs…

Grow a backbone. Recent opinion polls are damning of Brexit. Only 31% of voters now think it was the right decision to leave the EU. 61% of voters say Brexit has been more of a failure than a success. Johnson and the Conservative Party take the most blame followed by a host of former Tory leaders and, of course, the lovely Nigel Farage. This is why it will be a long road back to power for the Conservatives and why this blog believes we are ‘enjoying’ peak support for Reform UK who have flatlined on 27% of the vote share.

Just pop the impact of Brexit into AI. UK GDP is 6-10% lower than it would have been without Brexit, business investment is 12-18% lower, productivity 3-4% lower, jobs are 1.8 million fewer, UK trade has fallen relative to our economy’s size. The list goes on. Brexit has been a disaster. And that is before the changed national security environment where the whole of Europe is threatened by Russia.

The Labour government are tip toeing back into the EU’s ambit. It is called a ‘pragmatic reset’ apparently. Ties are deepening through agreements on trade such as a veterinary agreement, recognition of professional qualifications etc. but it is painfully slow. It has just been announced that the UK is finally set to rejoin the Erasmus student exchange scheme from 2027. Whoopee!

Government is painfully slow. It is why Labour is being so punished in the polls. Surely aligning with the EU at least in terms of the single market would be a bold and mostly popular move, particularly as leaving the EU has hardly curbed immigration…

Of course there is one major blockage. The EU currently really doesn’t want the psycho drama of Britain rejoining the EU, particularly with Reform UK riding high in the polls. And I guess, who could blame them?

What a mess. The UK political system has done huge damage to our economic future and national security, from the referendum itself to the way we left the EU. Moderate politicians of all parties should make this clear and move fast to correct the impact. You never know, it might even help them at the polls…

P.S. One more blog this year. I promise it will be festive…😁

Starmer is back, and Labour is the only option… for now…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Reasonable, reasonable, reasonable. That is the only way to describe Labour’s conference. My, the government has had a grim start and needs to deliver, but it is the only game in town.

Two speeches stood out for me. Wes Streeting, a gifted orator, seems to be making waves in the NHS. In a good way. His embrace of technology, cutting bureaucracy, and forcing GP surgeries to be more flexible is convincing. The NHS has had a ton of money thrown at it, so Streeting better deliver, but it feels a reasonable start.

Then, Starmer’s speech. He had a spring in his step, possibly because his stalker, Andy Burnham, blew up at the conference. An interview telling voters he would not be dictated to by bond markets just emphasised his trouble making naivety. He is a lightweight, and it showed.

Starmer had a good week… finally…

Starmer was finally passionate about the country he leads, ripped into Farage, and Reform with legitimate force and comprehensively outlined what his government was seeking to achieve. He was moderate but passionate. Above all, reasonable, a rare trait in democratic politics currently.

The reason I have never voted Labour is its management of the economy. The state always gets bigger when a Labour government is in power, public expenditure runs out of control, and aspiration never seems to be a priority. But even this government knows we can not continue in this direction. It needs business, it needs to free up the economy, it needs to get people off benefits and back into work. Delivery is key, the next budget crucial and backbenchers surely now realise they have to fall into line when tough decisions are required.

Farage and Reform are vile. You can understand the frustrations that has put this merry band ahead in the polls, but they would tear the country apart. The LibDems remain irrelevant, and the Tories are only just beginning to understand their route back to power is the economy, stupid.

If your politics are mainstream, Starmer’s government is the only game in town for now. Labour reassured this week.

Panic over Starmer’s judgement; calm down and carry on…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

It’s the media at its worst, and it’s Starmer at his worst.

All the right-wing media and quite a selection of other media too are circling the government with a little help from Starmer’s enemies in the wider Labour Party. Stop it. If not Starmer, then it will be Farage, not Badenoch (the Tories are currently dead in the water until they find a new long-term leader with real ability), Davey, or anybody else. If that’s not what you want, Starmer is pretty much the current best hope of preventing populism from succeeding in this country. For those who think Farage won’t be a problem, be very careful what you wish for. A Reform government in any shape or form would be a disaster and a betrayal of all the moderate values this country is known for and has worked so hard to defend. That is what we should be proud of, not the damn flag and the 110,000 out and proud Tommy Robinson racists who despoiled the streets of London at the weekend.

Give him a break, he has Donald Trump in the UK to contend with…

Starmer has got things wrong and has seemed hopelessly flat-footed, but he is hardly responsible for Rayner’s tax affairs. He certainly got Mandelson’s appointment wrong, but it is not impossible to see why you might want Britain’s best trade negotiator in Washington and that bit of the equation probably paid off.

As far as who might replace Starmer, the much mooted Andy Burnham is a blow hard who’s alleged successes as mayor of Manchester were brought down to earth in the Sunday Times at the weekend. Why on earth would a so-called ‘soft left’ politician solve our current problems? I met a Labour peer relatively recently who was my opponent in Manchester Withington when I stood for parliament many years ago. He damned Burnham with very faint praise, saying he was only as good as the people around him. Umm…

Let alone the Trump visit this week, the budget in November must be relatively error free, and Starmer also needs to acquire some emotional intelligence in dealing with his colleagues. That would go a long way to easing some current resentments. But make no mistake about it. Labour colleagues and even many in opposition parties should wish him well because the current alternative according to opinion polls is not a refreshed Labour government under a new leader but something very unpleasant indeed. It would make divisions over Brexit seem like Halcyon days…

Oh dear: Moderates seem to be failing everywhere…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

How bad can it get? The centre-right has collapsed or is collapsing in the USA, UK, France, Italy to name just a few countries. To be fair, centre-right, centre-left moderates are hanging on in Sweden, Norway, Poland, Germany, Australia, and Canada, but the populist threat is rising across the board. Picking a row with Donald Trump seems to be the short-term route to salvation.

As for the UK, bloody hell! This blog welcomed Starmer’s pragmatism, but if that is a substitute for absolutely no core beliefs, we have a problem.

Starmer, like Sunak, seems to be deaf politically and cuts an unsympathetic figure. I have repeated this before, but he needs to be brutally honest on taxes, cut through on housing, the NHS, and small boats. Actually, just get things done. Otherwise, this government is toast and currently it is our last hope. After Rayner’s departure, I think he might have the cabinet he wanted even if by accident. Let’s see. Umm… as I write this Starmer has just lost his US Ambassador, Peter Mandelson, over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Did nobody check these links, particularly when we had a good Ambassador already in situ who had built close ties with Trump’s administration? It smacks of general incompetence laced with hypocrisy guaranteed to infuriate voters.

One law for moderates, another law for voters…

Despite day to day errors, the unpopularity of moderates generally has come about because of their fundamental incompetence in relating, managing expectations and delivering for voters. You can combine this with a fair amount of dishonesty, as mainstream politicians treat politics purely as a career rarely built on a set of consistent beliefs which chime with the electorate. Often self-serving and easily judged as hypocritical (see above), why shouldn’t voters go for populists? They feel there is nothing left to lose (until they have lost big time as they would be worse off on every front), as little seems to change, living standards have plateaued or gone backwards, and nobody is levelling with them. Respect for state institutions and indeed democracy itself is disappearing. Just look at how it is playing out in America. The self-serving, grotesquely incompetent Trump destroys government but incredibly moderates having nothing to offer except to self-flagellate over whether they should stay moderate or not.

We need clever, politically astute (not the same thing), brutally honest, perhaps even charismatic politicians (a change of view here) with gravitas to cut through and deflate the populist balloon before it is too late.

Where are they?

P.S. An uncomfortable UK state visit for Trump. If Mandelson has to resign because of his ties to Epstein, what does it say about the US President’s past and the company he kept…

It’s Irregular Migration, Stupid…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

As a news junky, I rarely tune out of the news. But this summer with the exception of the Putin/Trump summit on Ukraine, I have.

Probably not surprising. Whether it is Israel/Gaza, Ukraine or Trump’s actions generally, the news agenda is uniformly depressing. Nothing gets resolved, the aggressors make ground and, with Trump, there seems no checks and balances on his increasingly authoritarian presidency.

But, closer to home, it is the furore over the small boats crisis which makes grim reading/watching. As the number of irregular migrants rises (still a small percentage of overall immigration), it is the worst face of Britain on show. Racist thugs besiege migrant hotels (if only we could deport them…) and Nigel Farage makes hay proposing all sorts of impossible policies whilst Starmer’s government seems rudderless.

The worst face of Britain on display…

Whether you like it or not a meaningful solution has to be found to ‘stop the small boats’ otherwise Farage’s momentum may not stall through to the next election. He is currently 8 percent ahead of Labour in the polls. Just look what the issue of irregular or illegal immigration did for Trump. Liberals in the broadest sense of the word need to form a consensus that action needs to be taken and support increasingly bold initiatives from Starmer, otherwise the consequences electorally for their agenda will be far worse.

Margaret Thatcher alighted on the issue of legal versus illegal immigration years ago and warned of the fallout from unfettered access to the UK. It has been the Achilles heel of successive governments and now a potential fatal wound for Starmer if he doesn’t get numbers down.

And let’s be clear, many voters, not the ones demonstrating outside hotels, have a valid point. There are genuine fears, even if hardly justified by the facts or exaggerated, about large numbers of young men from different cultural backgrounds being housed in small towns. The cost of the hotels to accommodate migrants as armies of lawyers appeal nearly every deportation is outrageous, particularly when there is such a housing shortage in the UK and the government is short of money generally. Every government initiative is too little, too late and we will end up leaving the ECHR and other international agreements if nothing can be done.

Immigration is vital to the health of the UK economy. Migrants enrich our life but irregular migration washes out many of the perceived benefits. Fears whipped up by Farage and the vile Robert Jenrick, Shadow Justice Secretary, (shame on the Tory Party for letting his agenda run) dominate the headlines. The political agenda and public life generally is becoming ugly which can only benefit populists. Starmer has to park his international activities and focus on his domestic ones whatever the cost otherwise he will be a one-term premier.

Against this backdrop, when indoors, no wonder this summer has been dominated by the likes of Netflix rather than the news…

Starmer is improving all the time but will get little credit

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Managing Trump relatively successfully, a US/UK trade deal, a UK/India trade deal, a new compact with the EU. Despite the devil being in the detail, Starmer should get a pat on the back.

Being PM is a thankless task…

He won’t, of course. None of the above will get the UK back to a pre-Brexit nirvana. They barely get us to the starting line, and few voters will see any immediate impact.

The narrative has been set. All mainstream politicians are useless at best, dissembling voters to hide their inadequacies. Starmer is no exception.

Reform, according to many voters, tells it as it is. Excessive political correctness, an interfering state, too much immigration that Labour lovies secretly like. Then, the government cosies up to Europe, selling the fisheries industry down the river, so to speak.

Just a reminder on the latter, the fisheries industry contributes 0.03% to the UK economy. 70% of agricultural output is sold to Europe. This has been made immeasurably easier because of this week’s deal.

But in a world of populism, there is little rational debate. Scare tactics, yah-boo exchanges, and downright lies dominate debate, not facts.

For Starmer, what can he do? Very little. It will be a hard slog to the next election. He will need to prove NHS waiting lists are falling, immigration is falling, and the economy is growing with tangible benefits, including an increase in housing supply.

It would help if he had a clearer philosophical narrative. This blog likes his non-ideological pragmatism, but it makes it harder to explain the ultimate destination he is trying to reach.

However, he has one major advantage. The increasingly haplessness of today’s Tory Party. Starmer will be able to differentiate himself much more clearly from Reform at the next election than in the days when it used to be a competitive race with the Tories.

Until then, it will be an uphill, thankless battle. Who would go into politics?

What is the point of a Labour government?

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

In one word: competence. There has been such a shortage of it from UK governments in recent years that justifying this attribute would be enough.

What we don’t need is ideology. It led nowhere for Labour under Corbyn in Opposition and led the country over the cliff under Johnson/Cummings and Truss. Add in a lack of ideological compromise over EU membership, leading to Brexit, and the disaster of such an approach is clear.

Competence over ideology should be the point of this Labour government

In recent times, perhaps only Margaret Thatcher made ideology work. But she was competent, the country was badly off course, and her free market ideology often cloaked a good deal of compromise.

Over the pond, Trump, with his tariffs, DOGE, and embrace of strongmen/billionaires, represents a sort of anti-democratic philosophy that may also take his Administration over a cliff. One hopes so, although the consequence of Europe having to finally stand up for its own defence provides some compensation.

But back to the Labour government. It seems to be gradually finding its feet, and not just in international relations. Only Labour can reform the NHS and benefits system free from the charge of hard-hearted malice. Tackling unsustainable disability benefits and stripping the not fit for purpose NHS of some of its bureaucracy by abolishing NHS England is a good start to proving its ideological flexibility.

Prior to that, cutting the international aid budget to pay for increases in defence expenditure again strikes a blow for practicality over principle. Labour from the centre-left got away with it lightly. Even the Tories could not disagree.

Governing is messy. Unpredictable events drive the best laid plans off course. Competing priorities means good government has to compromise. Competence is everything, and that alone will dictate voters’ impressions of whether Starmer and co. deserve a second term.

There is so much more to do. Further NHS reform, changes to the planning system, initiatives to make the civil service and local government more efficient are all badly needed and now. This government needs to go further and faster but not with the burden of ideological certainty.

My betting today is that Labour will win the next election with an increased share of the vote but a sharply reduced majority. This is a similar prediction to that made by Jacob Rees-Mogg at a Spectator magazine meeting I attended! We shall see, but in the face of such hopeless Tory Opposition, they should do.

Today, it feels like a successful Labour government is the only barrier to highly damaging polarised politics washing up on our shores.

In the face of adversity, Starmer comes into his own…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

I am not a Labour supporter, but I have always liked Starmer. Why?

First, and wisely, he doesn’t rely on charisma. Politics is not a game, and we are all tired of dishonest, charismatic personalities who are fundamentally incompetent, and that is only in the UK… Starmer is solid, serious, uncharismatic, and ideologically flexible. He held a big job successfully as Director of Public Prosecutions and, despite an uncertain start, now seems to be applying those skills to the role of PM.

After an uncertain start, Starmer seems to be finding his feet and that should be a relief to everyone…

Second, let’s explore that ideological flexibility. Life is too complex and too chaotic to assume a set ideology provides answers in all scenarios. Needs must. Starmer, only elected in 2015, is certainly centre-left but no idealogue. He supported Corbyn out of necessity whilst maintaining support for membership of the EU. He promptly ran for the leadership, promising to continue Corbyn’s policies before ditching them after victory. He suspended Corbyn from the Labour Party on the issue of anti-semitism. In office, he cut the winter fuel allowance, will tackle sickness benefits, and has slashed foreign aid to support an increased defence budget.

He is also ruthless. He fired Sue Gray, his chief of staff, for failing to get the politics right. He dismissed his Transport Secretary for misdemeanours he knew about when appointing her and failed to appoint his long-standing Shadow Cabinet colleague, Emily Thornberry, to any ministerial post for reasons unknown. Apparently, he doesn’t like the tittle tattle of ordinary politics and is not particularly clubbable. Good!

Starmer’s government has taken unpopular economic decisions, some of which are a mistake by sticking to past rash fiscal promises. But they were taken early in his administration. He is moving closer to the EU generally but cautiously and now takes the lead on Ukraine, treading a careful line between his allies and a rogue US presidency which makes the US in all but name a former ally. The latest act by Trump of suspending aid to Ukraine is, quite frankly, incredible and a waste of all the financial support the US previously provided.

He seems to be finding his feet, has four more years, and should make the most of this stability. In such an uncertain world with such little choice in domestic politics, we must hope Starmer, and his government succeed.

Tories lose their way…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Hopeless. For Kemi Badenoch, the clock is ticking. An indifferent performer so far, lacking charisma, she is compounding error after error. No policies yet, except for one; chasing Reform as they top an opinion poll in The Times. Seemingly in response, she has just announced ruling out permanent residence for migrants on benefits. The Tories will always be Reform-lite whatever their dog-whistle policies and yet it is a cul-de-sac they seem happy to run into.

A new Tory leader, already under pressure…

Centrist, moderate Tories should be really angry about the direction of their Party. Cameron called a Brexit vote to see off the threat from the Right. That failed. Johnson’s Brexit deal was a triumph of style over damaging substance. Let’s ignore Truss and Sunak (too depressing) and focus on Badenoch. She is, so far, simply failing to reset the Party, still obsessed by culture politics and immigration with the deeply unpleasant, newly minted anti-immigrant Robert Jenrick (her leadership opponent), snapping at her heels.

A former Cabinet Minister, a friend of mine, said the Tory Party had to move to the Right to defeat populist right-wing forces. Well, that went well, didn’t it? Reform is now topping the polls; the Tory Party is almost wholly an anti-immigration Brexit party now but that still isn’t enough. Languishing at 21% in the polls (third place), its positioning has been a disaster. One aspect of recent opinion polls has also been overlooked. The Tory Party has made zero progress in winning back LibDem voters, crucial for any electoral success.

I was watching a re-run of the Brian Walden interview with Steve Coogan (Walden) and Harriet Walter (Thatcher). Brilliant, and politics is all the poorer for audiences failing to engage with a long-form, incisive political interview. But what struck me, for all the anti-EU rhetoric in losing her Chancellor, Lawson, was Thatcher’s commitment to a single market. It remained undiminished, understanding that concept was in the best interests of Britain. She rarely got sidelined. Economic prosperity was everything. She must be turning in her grave now.

The Tories need to ignore Reform and re-build a credible party based on economic competence and aspiration. They need to argue for their own reset on Europe, particularly with the likelihood of a sympathetic centre-right government being elected in Germany. With Trump in situ, making some concessions for joining a customs union would add to the Tories’ credibility (outside their shrinking, increasingly right-wing membership base), but if not that, further involvement in European defence and cooperation is a no-brainer.

Except, the Tory Party has shown little brains for some time. It is why it is where it is with no prospect of changing anytime soon. It worries only about its Right flank. If I were Labour, Reform or LibDem, I would be in a very happy place right now, at least relatively.

2025 may surprise on the upside…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

My uncharacteristic mild optimism may only be due to too many right-wing commentators reading the last rites for liberal democracy. But there you go. They, rather than me, might be disappointed…

It is time for 2025 predictions but also to review those for 2024. Umm…

  • The Tories will go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation – an easy tick
  • The Tories will move further to the Right after the election – tick
  • Trump will not win the presidency… to be fair this prediction was changed in June after Biden’s disastrous debating performance but still… – a rather large cross
  • The populist Right will make gains in Italy, Germany and France – tick
  • Putin will win in Russia (tongue in cheek!) and Modi in India. Modi lost his populist majority but governs in a coalition – tick
  • The war in Ukraine will grind on but Western resolve will hold up – tick
  • Netanyahu will not survive the year as Israel’s Prime Minister – cross

2025 will be a bumpy year, but perhaps not as bad as expected...

Five out of seven predictions were correct, but I would have sacrificed them all just to be right about Trump. Hey, ho. Perhaps I underestimate the attraction of populists.

So why some optimism for 2025? Well, mainly because populist support has been ‘priced in’, and too many people are dancing too heavily on the grave of moderates. Here we go:

  1. Trump will not be the all-conquering extremist many predict and may surprise on the upside. Janan Ganesh from the Financial Times at my Company’s investment seminar last November predicted Trump would be uncontrollable simply because he doesn’t face re-election. I am not so sure. Despite a largely competent start in picking his rather extreme Cabinet, he probably only has two years to make a difference before Congressional elections give back the House to the Democrats (an early 2026 prediction). As argued before, many of his policies are contradictory, his Cabinet is likely to be ineffectually chaotic, he has softened on Ukraine (though right to challenge Europe on defence expenditure), he might just want to be a little more popular in his final years or may simply lose interest in governing radically or governing at all.
  2. Labour will have a torrid time (its communications skills are still hopeless), but it has four years, and glimmers of progress towards its targets will appear by the end of 2025. The UK will appear a beacon of stability internationally, and this will ultimately benefit the government.
  3. Starmer will lead Labour throughout 2025 and into the next General Election despite mutterings.
  4. Reform UK will have a strong year but are close to peaking. Don’t underestimate the hostility of a large proportion of the electorate towards Farage and the likes of his backers such as Trump/Musk. Although Farage and Musk now appear to have fallen out. What a shame.
  5. The Tories will have a terrible year and will flatline in the polls. Badenoch has not found her feet yet and seems to have forgotten the Tories’ way back to power is to regain their reputation for economic competence. Too early, I know, but she is unlikely to lead her Party into the next General Election. Such turmoil in the main opposition party will benefit Reform but also Labour.
  6. It is too early to predict events in France although things do not look promising but there will be better news in Germany. The unstable largely left-wing coalition will be heavily defeated in February, ushering in a centre-right CDU/CSU coalition government despite the rise of the extreme AfD.
  7. A miserable year for China. Slowing growth, a possible trade war with the US and Xi’s dominance starting to grate across the country means there will be no move on Taiwan despite bellicose noises. China simply cannot afford the economic consequences, particularly when they are also losing ground to their unfriendly neighbour, India.
  8. Not least Russia/Ukraine. See first prediction above. Trump will eventually force a tougher peace solution on Putin over Ukraine than Putin wants. Putin is winning the war but at great human and economic cost. A Trump led ‘solution’ will probably involve greater support for Ukraine from Europe, guarantees on borders, but not fully on Ukraine’s terms and no NATO membership. It is 50/50, whether the war ends this year. Even this blog knows when not to put your neck out…
  9. Lastly, the Middle East. The war in Gaza will end this year but on Israel’s terms.

That’s it folks. A roller coaster of a year but optimism is based on the fact that progress towards the death of liberal democracy will stall…

Happy New Year!