Tag: news

Trump’s clarity of message won him the presidency

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The result was almost a foregone conclusion before the first votes were counted. Reality triumphed over hope.

Polls have been showing for weeks that Harris’s lead was narrowing generally and amongst ethnic minority voters in particular. Evidence, against the grain, that Republicans were voting early in large numbers was also a body blow to Democrats. Only Trump’s dark rhetoric in the closing days gave grounds for optimism for those who felt positivity would win it for the Vice-President.

Trump’s victory was a triumph of reality over hope…

Then, in the early hours of this morning, exit polls at both a state and national level showed immigration and the economy were the leading issues of concern. 70 per cent of those polled believed the US was heading in the wrong direction. Very bad for incumbents.

Further evidence for geeks of voting trends came later in the evening from a breakdown of ballots cast in the increasingly right-wing state of Florida. Trends were all ominously heading in the wrong direction in previously hugely safe Democrat counties.

It was going to be a long night for the Democrats.

To add insult to injury, Republicans are likely to hold both the Senate and the House of Representatives.  Even the unpopular Ted Cruz in Texas held his seat easily. Trump unchecked is now a scary possibility.

Perhaps America was not ready for a black female president from California, but with abortion also being a key issue, this doesn’t feel quite right.

Harris had nothing to say on immigration, failing to spell out the details of a belated measure to curb immigration blocked in Congress to protect Trump. She had little to say on the economy either, failing to recognise, however unfairly, the need to distance herself from Biden. She was simply too woolly in the face of belligerent voters, not an accusation you could level at Trump. As Janan Ganesh said in the FT, voters knew exactly what they were voting for with Trump, not with Harris.

The US now feels like a very right-wing country, following a trend in Western democracies generally. Trump could do untold damage to the fabric of democracy there and drive illiberal reforms aided by partisan judicial appointments.  Tyrants globally could be rewarded by the new Administration with Ukraine literally sold to Russia. Then there is the unaccountable influence of some billionaires generally on US public life…

The UK is now an outlier of centrist politics. Moderate and therefore increasingly lonely. Our influence on the world stage may be small, but we should still be very grateful indeed for what we have.

America on the edge…

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

The political news from the US is thoroughly depressing. An increasingly erratic Donald Trump, profane and peddling untruths, has closed the gap with Kamala Harris. She is now only 2% ahead in the popular vote and, more importantly, behind in 5 of the 7 swing states. Admittedly the polls can’t be relied upon when the vote is so close, particularly at state level where it is really 50/50 across all 7 states.

Trump closes in on Harris…

How can this be? Two excellent journalists from the Financial Times, Janan Ganesh and Edward Luce, seem to have the answer. Trump stands for something which reassures even relatively moderate voters. Nobody can say they don’t know what they are voting for when casting their ballot. Voters may not like Trump’s personality, but he has a clear edge on the economy and immigration and he is seen to be able to put a protective arm round a country which feels somewhat beleaguered. This is despite the fact economic activity is actually booming and inflation falling, courtesy of many of Biden’s policies. As for issues like Putin/Ukraine. They don’t get a look in.

Harris on the other hand is vague. Undoubtedly an improvement in voters’ eyes on Biden, she is too ill defined on a range of policy issues, has no convincing answer to the impact of past high inflation (who could?) and is seen as weak on immigration. Her stance on abortion where she rightly has a strong lead may not save her. Overall, a bit of this and a bit of that policy-wise is not enough at the margin for such a polarised electorate. No amount of effort from Barak Obama and celebrity endorsements (please stop, they only antagonise the electorate, conforming to Republican accusations of elitist Democrat stereotypes) seems enough.

So, what would a Trump presidency involve. Here are a few educated guesses…

  • Capitulation to Putin on Ukraine threatening the whole of Eastern Europe
  • The possible fatal undermining of NATO
  • Encouragement for China to invade Taiwan
  • Trump escaping court on a range of criminal cases
  • The US deficit soaring by US$7.5 trillion as tax cuts for the rich fail to ‘trickle down’
  • A final end to the benefits of globalisation as US trade tariffs are imposed, stoking inflation in the process
  • Environmental safeguards torn up, speeding up the impact of global warming
  • Billionaires increasing their undue influence on politics
  • Another swing to the Right for an increasingly polarised, unaccountable Supreme Court
  • No prospect for gun controls, even a loosening of what few already exist
  • Restrictions on abortion creeping in at a federal level
  • The real prospect of a phony civil war between states although, to be fair, this might happen under the Democrats

The US is such a blessed country with so much talent but feels on a steep decline. The electorate is gloomy and, in this mood, the character of their president and the intentional or unintentional consequences of another four years of Trump do not seem to matter. When buyer’s regret sets in, it will be too late for the US and the rest of us.

Fingers crossed that, against the odds, Harris totters over the line…

The dark cynicism at the heart of democracy…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Churchill’s maxim that “democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried” is being severely tested. The quality of politicians, populism, the rise of social media, fake news, the 24-hour news cycle are all testing its ability to deliver. Those in public life more cynically than ever before, sometimes in desperation, attempt to manipulate the electorate in the face of such headwinds whilst voters, in turn, are more cynical about politicians, their believability and ability to produce results. Polls suggest the public is losing patience.

Democracy facing almost overwhelming headwinds

Let’s take each one in turn. The quality of politicians in most democracies is generally deteriorating. The price paid for public service is seen as too high as 24- hour media scrutiny, online abuse, and a general lack of respect for those in authority take their toll. I was a Conservative Party parliamentary candidates’ list assessor for nine years up to 2019, and the fall in quality of applicants was palpable. The best are eschewing politics for a career elsewhere. Many on the list are simply glorified local councillors. Local knowledge on day one and a fanatical ability to deliver leaflets and canvass are seen as superior to raw talent. That is before one takes into consideration the quality of recent Prime Ministers at the top of the political tree…

In America, before the rise of Kamala Harris, the choice of presidential candidate, aided by the obscene amounts of money needed to participate, was awful and probably not that great now. But why is a narcissist with declining cognitive abilities still leading the Republicans? Desperate.

This fall in the quality of those seeking a role in public life is repeated across countries and is exacerbated by past and current populist candidates such as Trump, Johnson, Farage, Bolsonaro, Berlusconi, Marine Le Pen, Orban, Modi to name but a few. Mostly (perhaps not the latter two) incompetent and caring little for their electorate, they have risen on the back of over-promising mainstream politicians failing to deliver relative to expectations.

Then social media. The abuse is awful and sometimes aired by leaders who should know better. Trump recently implied online that Kamala Harris was the beneficiary of oral sex. Incredible. Conspiracy theories such as QAnon (the world is run by satanic child molesters) abound. They have always existed, but the oxygen of publicity that the internet provides is like pouring petrol on flames. Who wants to steer a path through democratic politics in this maelstrom? This dovetails into fake news with doctored videos, photos, voice recordings, further adding pressure.

Lastly, the 24 hour news cycle. Hounded by social media, mainstream outlets harry politicians constantly in order to keep up. Politicians are expected to respond to events immediately, know everything about every topic in interviews and account for the smallest flaws. Achievements go unrecognised as journalists focus on publicising every misstep in the name of ‘news’. Thoughtful, longer-term political discourse on complex issues has become an unnecessary luxury in a world of fragmented, short-term focused communication channels set on instant voter gratification.

Authoritarians suppress debate, control social media, and brutally remove opponents. Democracy in contrast, is a system of checks and balances overwhelmed by the pressures listed above. Those pressures are undermining its very existence and are becoming a price too heavy to bear.

Harris performs well in TV debate with Trump, but does it matter?

~ Julian Samways ~ 5 Comments

Possibly, but in the face of so many polarised voters, Harris will struggle to move decisively clear of Trump.

Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris probably trumped the debate itself…

Harris performed strongly, and Trump was frankly, well, weird. So angry, so fixed on the past, and Biden, he failed to land blows on Harris and, that in itself, was a victory for the Vice-President.

But it went beyond that. Trump railed against immigrants eating animals, rising immigrant led violent crime, and babies aborted after birth and was pulled up by moderators for these lies. He had no policies on healthcare and refused to support a Ukraine victory. He lives in a dark, dark world although I worry that his angry fluency might rally his supporters.

Harris looked relaxed, often laughed at Trump, and talked about a positive future. She was not held to account for changing policy views, and this will be a source of regret for Trump supporters

Harris should have a small bounce in the polls after this debate, but it is all about mostly independent voters in the swing states, and the electoral college is currently too fickle to call.

What is wrong with America? What is wrong with the Republican Party? The Democrats have baggage, and any other Republican candidate might have walked it.

But Trump? He should and deserves to be miles behind. The fact that he is level with Harris says more about the state of American politics than it does Harris.

The world and moderate American voters wait for November 5th with baited breath, although now feeling safer, probably not because of this debate, but because Taylor Swift has just endorsed the Vice-President…

A change of view: Trump will almost certainly win if Biden doesn’t step down

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

A comfortable majority of Americans do not want Donald Trump as their next president. It is very clear on any trip to the US.  The problem is a similar majority don’t want Joe Biden either. The only candidate each one could beat is each other, which is why they both need a Biden versus Trump fight.

Biden failed last night…

Last night’s presidential debate just made it harder for Biden to win. All the fears that he is in cognitive decline and simply too old for a second term came to the fore. This was Biden’s chance to put such concerns to rest. Indeed, the debate so early in the campaign was his idea. He flunked it.

Biden is a decent man and has actually been a reasonable president. Democrats have consistently performed better in elections than opinion polls. Since Trump was convicted in the hush money trial, Biden had been drawing level in polls. Trump has become wilder and more dangerous in his views and has his own cognitive decline problems at 78.

After last night, none of this is now enough. Biden must step down, or Trump will almost certainly win.

The problem for Democrats is that Biden might not agree with this analysis and, if he does and reluctantly steps down, they are left with the deeply unpopular Vice-President Kamala Harris. Trump may win on this scenario, too.

If Trump is a mess of the Republicans’ own making, Biden is now a mess of the Democrats’ own making.

At stake is the future of American democracy, the integrity of its legal system, a triumphant Putin, the NATO alliance to name but a few issues…

Democrats better come up with a solution to the Biden/Harris conundrum fast. Otherwise, America and the wider world will enter a very dark phase indeed.

America stares into the abyss

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

The only place that makes you pathetically grateful for the level of political debate in the UK is America.

It’s an extraordinary comment you might think, but viewing things from the perspective of a business trip to New York, politics is dire over here. Two presidential candidates almost nobody wants; one a convicted felon, the other feebly tottering through public life, resting heavily on cue cards.

Two candidates few voters want but Trump is the real danger to America’s future…

The real difference, however, is that Biden is a decent man who has actually had a successful presidency, with the exception of the lack of border controls that might do for him in the end. The economy is booming, partly powered by green investment initiatives, and much needed infrastructure rebuilding is finally happening. He is also managing the Middle East crisis and Ukraine as best he can.

But Biden gets no credit. The impact of inflation, not his fault, still lingers, and illegal immigration dominates public discourse even with Democrat voters I have spoken to. This is now being addressed through an executive order, but it should have been a priority from day one. Biden looks and sounds too old for a second term, and moderates are in despair at the gamble Democrats are taking with him that may let Trump triumph.

As for Trump. He is a grotesque. Nothing truthful comes out of his mouth. He is a narcissist who doesn’t care a jot for the institutions of state or, for that matter, democracy and the voters who vote for him.  He is setting community against community and voter against voter. Think an extreme version of Brexit. Yet he is marginally ahead of Biden in the polls and has just raised US$140m in donations on the back of his conviction.

You just despair for the future of this amazing country. Voters are taking for granted all they have, and it feels we are witnessing the start of the collapse of an empire. cAD400 all-over again…

Trump and Biden need each other as they only have a chance of winning against each other. But it comes at the expense of the extreme polarisation of public discourse and the fracturing of American society.

Democrats are campaigning weakly, Republicans have shamefully been taken over by the cult of Trump’s personality.

America is looking into the abyss and there is only one way, at least in the short-term, for the country to save itself from itself.

For all Biden’s faults, America must reject Trump in November.

Tories in a hole don’t know when to stop digging…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Things seem to go from bad to worse for the Tories. They are now a stonking 27 per cent behind Labour in the latest YouGov/Times opinion poll with Reform UK on 12 per cent. They are assailed from the Right and Left, and one has to feel for Sunak. The tightrope he walks seems pretty precarious.

Who would have Sunak’s job?

But Sunak, his advisors and his backbenchers just make things worse. The focus on the Rwanda deportation scheme for illegal migrants, for example, is a disaster. Squeezing the Bill through the House of Commons last week finally by a majority of 44 just confirms Sunak’s weakness. It was excruciating to witness the aggressive interventions from some 60 Tory MPs saying the Bill wasn’t strong enough before finally pushing it through. Nobody, least of all the public, think the scheme is going to work despite spending £240 million to date. When the President of Rwanda, seeing his country constantly getting trashed in the media, has had enough you know the game is up. The Bill will go to the House of Lords, get amended, come back to the House of Commons, get passed, and then will be challenged in the courts. It is highly unlikely a single person will be deported to Rwanda this side of the election.

And the bizarre thing is that the government has had some success with illegal migrant channel boat crossings. They are down by a third in the past year but all the noise over Rwanda has hidden this.

Keir Starmer just has to sit back and watch the Tories implode, now helped by another intervention from ex-cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke. Writing in The Telegraph he describes Sunak as “leading the Conservatives into an election where we will be massacred” and urges him to step down. Oh dear indeed.

The only hope for the Tories is that Reform UK’s polling at 12 per cent, which would cost them dozens of seats, is exaggerated. There is some evidence for this but even that won’t save them.

Footnote on Trump

For some time, Trump has been the clear favourite to win the Republican nomination. Whilst the size of his victories in Ohio and New Hampshire is depressing, there is a long way to go before November. Whether Nikki Haley stays in the race or not through to Super Tuesday in March (she will probably get a thrashing in her home state of South Carolina) will provide some insight into Trump’s perceived viability throughout the year. The two issues will be whether Trump is still the candidate by November and whether Biden can still beat him. We are no closer to knowing the answer to these two questions despite the primary events of the last couple of weeks.

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Who will trump Trump?

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

Last week, this blog made a prediction that Trump would not win this year’s US presidential election and may not even be a candidate. Umm… brave or foolhardy? Well, time will tell but yesterday was a big step forward in the presidential race.

Biden and Trump are each other’s best bet…

First, Republican Chris Christie, now a harsh critic of Trump, suspended his presidential campaign. In some ways this doesn’t mean much. He was polling just two per cent amongst the Republican base. His lambasting of Trump would have meant more if he hadn’t had his head up Trump’s fundament when he initially became President in 2016. However, as the list of GOP wannabees dwindles, it allows those opposed to Trump to coalesce around DeSantis (unlikely) or Haley (more likely). In that sense Christie’s trashing of Haley off-camera is probably more meaningful than him stepping out of the race.

Today, it certainly looks as though Trump will be his Party’s nominee, but the contest has a long way to go with exciting legal hurdles ahead. In the meantime, it is curious that Fox News is giving Trump prime airtime, inviting him to friendly on air townhall meetings whilst his fellow contestants are debating elsewhere. The Murdoch’s disparage him in private, Trump has cost them US$1 billion indirectly in damages and most elected Republicans one hears are also extremely rude about Trump in private too.

We shall see. Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times recently eloquently explained why American democracy will survive Trump come what may. I am not so sure… although Congressional elections should stymie Trump’s presidency domestically pretty quickly.

If all that seems pessimistic, then balance these events with further evidence emerging suggesting the Democrat’s electoral prospects, even under Biden, are underestimated. Recent polling by The Washington Post and University of Maryland suggests an overwhelming majority (72 per cent) of Americans are not sympathetic to the January 6th rioters, who Trump wants to pardon, believing convicts either received fair sentences or they were not harsh enough. Add that to the real elections (mid-term Congressional and State ones) where Democrats significantly outperformed expectations, and there is all to play for.

As also mentioned in last week’s blog, Trump is Biden’s best bet and vice versa. It will be a nail-biting year, particularly as there is also the possibility that neither may be a candidate by November. And only America’s democracy and global security is at stake…

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